Is the upcoming offseason the most "boom or bust" in Rockets history?

I agree

But the "talent" is perceived.

We can't waste the talent if it's not that great. We need to evaluate it first.

We need to win at least 30 games maybe even 35 .

 

Yeah, I'm not so sure that our "talent" is all that talented.

They are a bundle of potential that is far far away from its ceiling. They are all poor at such fundamental things as shooting or passing. I've been watching this franchise since they were in San Diego, and I cannot recall a worse shooting roster or one that makes more collective boneheaded mistakes.

Yep, they can run fast and jump high .... but they can't get the ball up the court or put it in the hole.

 

Lmao at anyone expecting this poorly run, operates on an abandoned parking lot on the outskirts of town circus to "boom" this off-season.

 

The perfect world 'boom' here is basically a team just outside of the play-in. Consider the Clippers are in the 8th seed with 2 all stars and a team full of actual nba quality role players. The lakers have Lebron and AD and aren't in the play in. Harden would be our best player next year as a shell of his former self. Maybe we could make the play in if we exhaust all of our assets by overpaying role players in free agency and trading all our picks for other role players. We'd basically be what the Nets are now but with Harden. Then, we'd just be mediocre for the foreseeable future.

The best thing to do is just proceed developing our young players, ignoring the picks situation with OKC. Only sign young players with room to grow or trade for the same, getting them on good deals.

Overpaying old vet role players won't do much positive in the long run and will hurt us longterm. It would really only be a life preserver for Stone. Buying a few wins...and a few more months on the job for him.

 

my point is he'll still be a productive player and better value vs an aging/injured harden on supermax

 

I disagree. Young players with great potential/stars are too expensive. U aren't getting luka without trading the whole motherload, and u still might not get him.
For a team full of youngsters, u need vets to provide stability or teach dem how to play the game and a pg to control the offense.
We need vets and a pg. For pg, u draft scoot or u resign harden, one of the best playmakers to grace the court. Harden is a vet and a pg.

Focusing on developing our young player? Smith looks bad, green regress, and we have no pg/vets.
There are other alternatives to harden of course, but they are no where near harden's level yet.

 

Sengun
Green
Tari
Bari

Garuba
TyTy
KMJ

Boban
Josh Christopher

MUST GO: KPJ, Nix

 

..also worth noting that no one wants to willingly sign with the worst team in the league 3 years running unless they are getting overpaid to do so. It’s career suicide for any decent younger player…and to your point - very few of those players available in this FA class anyway.

The only bright spot to making a big signing in FA this year is at least overpaying a player this year becomes a little less egregious in the next CBA in theory….but until Houston starts showing they aren’t a trash org, the only way they are getting players to willingly come here is if they overpay or if those players otherwise aren’t getting much opportunities on other teams(lower quality players)….or Harden trying to relive the strip club circuit.

 

I think that’s a fair group of “keepers”. I would be willing to let Sengun go for the right price(I already know that’s not where your head is at) but I agree that Sengun is a valuable player. You certainly don’t give him away…but I think at some point we are going to have to trade some of these young guys to craft the roster in a specific direction rather than just a random collection of contextual “best available” dudes.

If we get Wemby, that path becomes a little more clear of who we build around but if we end up getting 5th and it is going to continue to be strange mix of legit questionable cornerstones- I don’t know what happens. I think there are very legit arguments against Green and Sengun as those types of guys(Jabari is clearly not that guy) but we can’t stay in organizational limbo forever.

 

Honestly, I don't think we are at bad boneheaded mistakes. Typical rookie stuff

What gets me is that there is very little actual brilliance and creativity / like real spurts of above average play

Even sengun , who HAS shown those flashes on offense plays the most important defensive position and struggles on that end .

I think a coach more suited to be a teacher will help , but the evaluation remains to be done....and the clock is ticking on our first set of guys

 

While this offseason is crucially important to the rebuild and will largely determine the timeline of how long the Rockets will stay an NBA afterthought, I dont think its necessarily boom or bust. In the best case the Rockets will still be several seasons away from contention. In the worst case, contention will not even be over the horizon and another rebuild is likely. These are my burning questions for the offseason and my short answers to each.

1. Who will be the coach moving forward?
Answer: Ime Udoka sounds like the guy for the job barring off the court issues coming into play.

2. What rook(s) are added?
Answer: Pick 1: Wemby Pick 2: Scoot Henderson Pick 3: Brandon Miller (again barring off the court issues. Pick 4 or 5: Trade.
The Clips pick is interesting and I have my eye on a variety of prospects that I think project to be solid rotation guys.

3. Harden
Answer: Yes. If Fertitta is prepared to pony up when Green and Sengun are due to be paid then I think signing James to a 3 or 4 year deal is the play. The Rockets can afford it now and nothing better is a true option. Harden not only gives the kids the opportunity to start playing meaningful games but he returns the entire organization to some semblance of relevance almost overnight,

4. KPJ
Answer: Yes. I think KPJ's contract pretty much guarantees he is on the team next season. I would start him at the 3 (with either Harden or Henderson at the 1 depending on how things shook out). If he rocks the boat or just doesnt work out then you waive him next season summer or trade him as an expiring at the deadline.

5. Veterans
Answer: Please. Harden + 2 vets to transition the franchise to phase 2 of the rebuild.

 

My plan:
Hire Ime Udoka to replace Silas first day of the offseason

Free agency: Sign James Harden, Rudy Gay (has a player option), and DeAndre Jordan.

Trade: Kenyon Martin to Indiana for picks 28 and 31

Draft: Dont see the Rockets getting a top 2 pick unfortunately.

1.3 - Brandon Miller - Wing, Alabama
1.16 - Taylor Hendricks - Forward, UCF
1.28 - Jordan Walsh - Wing, Arkansas
2.31 - Adem Bona - C, UCLA

2023/2024 Roster

1: Harden - Washington - KPJ
2: Green - Christopher - Harden - KPJ
3: KPJ - Miller - Tate - Gay - Walsh (RGV)
4: Smith Jr. - Eason - Hendricks - Gay
5: Sengun - Jordan - Garuba - Bona (RGV)

I think that Roster has an appropriate-for-a-rebuilding-team mix of vets and prospects. There is flexibility up and down the roster. Walsh and Bona are sent to RGV to develop for when Gay and Jordan are no longer around. This is obviously not a contending team. But if Green and Smith develop as we projected they might when they were selected (and adding James/taking KPJ off the ball and Udoka gives them that chance) then this is a solid .500 club that could push for a play in spot as soon as next season. Regardless, the team will have worked both to develop their young prospects by adding vets and a new coach and increased their long term talent.

 

Veteran guys that are content at this point in their careers to cash a paycheck and teach the kiddos how to be pros.

 

The 2018 offseason was also boom or bust; we just came off of a 4-3 WCF loss to GSW, and it was our move to retool and field a team around a recovering CP3.

We.... busted very hard on every signing.
And then the next year we doubled down on Bustbrook.
Every year since then has been doubling down on bustiness.

#PrayForFertitta

 

I don't think so. The "boom" would be making the play in most likely. I'd take that and be happy with the progress. The bust is being mediocre and losing like the #7 pick to the Thunder.

I can't imagine we'd make the leap from bottom dweller to playoffs or being contenders. That's going to take a year of getting our feet wet first as a fringe playoff team. Baby steps.

 

This offseason will determine whether we are still a bottom feeder for the next 5+ years or we are on the way up.

DD