I think the Astros did an awful job in the 2020 draft but picked up some gems afterwards. We only had four picks and I was unimpressed with any of them, after the draft we picked up Correa, Endersby and Dirden as UDFAs. Correa and Dirden have been on my most valuable prospects list ever since and I still think Endersby is a pretty fair prospect as well. In 2021 we had a better draft picking up Colt Gordon*, Will Wagner, & Hector "Gaby" Nieves. I have high expectations for all three and Spencer Arrighetti has a chance to contribute too. We signed a lot of UDFAs but whiffed on all of them. 2022 felt a lot better but we will learn a lot more about it this season.
Kinda limited with the amount of money they had and Tyler Brown who should have been a pretty safe pick has not performed well at all. Zach Daniels has huge upside and is starting to develop, we'll see if he can keep it up. Santos was also a high upside pick but he's taken a step back too. Shay really impressed his first year but has become a strikeout machine. It was actually really promising at first but hasn't really shown much
Santos and Daniels were moonshots but I was good with those picks as well as Whitcomb. I did not like the Tyler Brown pick. That whole draft was a crapshoot for all teams and it was almost a blessing that Houston was penalized in such a wacky year instead of a normal year.
2023 Baseball America Prospect Handbook: Houston Astros Top 30 The list on their website is different on the back end; those changes will be noted. 1. RHP Hunter Brown, 65/High (grade/risk) 2. C Yainer Diaz, 50/Medium 3. OF Drew Gilbert, 50/High 4. OF Jacob Melton, 50/High 5. SS/3B David Hensley, 45/Medium 6. OF Pedro Leon, 45/Medium 7. C Korey Lee, 45/Medium 8. RHP Spencer Arrighetti, 45/High 9. OF Justin Dirden, 45/High 10. RHP Miguel Ullola, 50/Extreme 11. OF Colin Barber, 50/Extreme 12. RHP Andrew Taylor, 45/High 13. 3B Joe Perez, 40/Medium 14. OF Kenedy Corona, 50/Extreme 15. RHP Misael Tamarez, 45/High 16. OF Quincy Hamilton, 40/High 17. 1B/OF Joey Loperfido, 40/High 18. 2B/3B Will Wagner, 40/High 19. LHP Trey Dombroski, 40/High 20. OF Ryan Clifford, 45/Extreme 21. RHP J.P. France, 35/Medium 22. RHP Jaime Melendez, 40/High 23 (book). 1B/OF J.J. Matijevic, 35/Medium; no longer a rookie due to days spent on MLB roster 23 (website). RHP Jose Fleury, 45/Extreme 24 (book). Fleury 24 (site). RHP Michael Knorr, 40/High 25 (book). Knorr 25 (site). RHP Shawn Dubin, 35/Medium 26 (book). LHP Parker Mushinski, 35/Medium 26 (site). LHP Colton Gordon-Zimring, 40/High 27 (book). Dubin 27 (site). 3B Corey Julks, 40/High; listed as an OF in the book 28 (book). Gordon-Zimring 28 (site). RHP Forrest Whitley, 45/Extreme 29 (book). Julks 29 (site). SS Camilo Diaz, 45/Extreme 30 (book). Whitley 30 (site). SS German Ramirez, 45/Extreme Best Tools Best hitter for average: Yainer Diaz Best power: Diaz Best strike-zone discipline: David Hensley Fastest baserunner: Logan Cerny Best Athlete: Zach Daniels Best fastball: Hunter Brown Best curveball: Brown Best slider: Spencer Arrighetti Best changeup: Shawn Dubin, but that has to be a typo (that hasn't been corrected) since his changeup was graded as a 30. Jose Fleury's is a 60, though... so let's go with him. Best control: Colton Gordon-Zimring (Trey Dombroski has a 70) Best defensive catcher: Korey Lee Best defensive infielder: Cristian Gonzalez Best infield arm: Joe Perez Best defensive outfielder: Drew Gilbert Best outfield arm: Pedro Leon
I noticed many of the names filling out the minor league coaching ranks have familiar rings to them. Joe, son of Dickie Thon. There is a Blue (any relation to Vida?). Of course familiarity doesn't mean their related, but they could be.
Top 30 just got released on MLB pipeline. Pedro Leon down to 8. Not sure why there's so much love for him on the forums when he hasn't shown he can hit consistently. Maybe a backup defensive OF like Marisnick or Siri. Was surprised Zach Daniels was left off after his huge 2022
My hope/thought with Leon is that between his defection layoff, the pandemic, injuries, and position switches, he has not had a chance to properly develop or play consistently. He has a very rare 60+ grade across all 3 major non-contact tools (arm, speed, power), so his ceiling is extremely high. He also walks a ton. So I think that if he gets/stays healthy he will break out. 13 of the 30 are OF with only 3 infielders (1 LHP, 13 RHP). It was disappointing to read about Julks not working at 3B/2B.
This dude is gonna tear **** up if he can find just a little more juice. https://www.mlb.com/astros/news/houston-astros-top-30-prospects-list-2023-preseason
He is a gold glove caliber centerfielder. He has one of the 5 strongest outfield arms across baseball. He has the quickness, athleticism and speed to steal 40-50 bases. He has the power to hit 30 homers and 40 doubles. He has learned to draw walks, he could draw 90-100 walks eventually. For him it entirely comes down to batting average and strikeouts. He is a career .225 hitter in the minor leagues. There is some reason for optimism as he went from AA to AAA and actually improved a little in regards to strikeouts. It is possible he just needs a little more refining after missing so much time. He only needs to hit .250 in the big leagues and he will be a 10-15 year player and an all star a handful of times.
Jake Marisnick has 11.5 career bWAR. Jose Siri has 1.6 in 125 career games / 374 career PA. Look at any team top prospect list and you won't find 8+ who get over 10 career WAR. I hope Leon is a great Astro who gives me several years of memories but comparing him to Jake is not a terrible thing.
Sounds like Javier Baez but in CF, really exciting peak but might be out of baseball by 33 if he can't make contact and draw walks.
I have never thought of that comparison but it is a good one. If Leon hits even .245, his WAR will be surprisingly high because of the glove, walks, extra bases and arm. His best bet is for McCormick to have a rough patch, get a chance in CF and keep his average high enough to fill the 8 hole. He reminds me a little big like Fisher, who we had in our system. Lots of power, elite athlete.
Good comp but Leon has a way better arm than Fisher. Fisher was stretched in CF because his arm was not good. If Fisher had Leon’s arm he’d still be in the league. Baez is a good comp too as an overall value/risk comparison. Before it got established that Leon had a major strikeout problem, I thought he could be Mookie Betts with more strikeouts based on athleticism and build. He still might be, just with a LOT more strikeouts.
