In DEFENSE of Alperen Sengun - Analysis on why Sengun may already be an above average defender

Great, another SOF we gotta add to the list

 

being sof is better than a dumb low iq hater
i like sengun jalen kj tari uzi
i am sjktuof

 

in the last sacremanto game
he finished like
18 / 9 / 11
bari and kenyon martin took his rebounds at the end of the game..

I don't think they did it on purpose, because kj likes sengun, ( bari... i dont know )

generally teammates support the player who is close to a triple double at the end of the games,

 

I don't think fans are necessarily bad at judging defense - i think statistics are bad at judging defense because there aren't as many individual markers of success to focus on like offense, which has clearly defined things like points to key off of.

Basically all the reasons why a fan might miss something (guy got hung out to dry by a bad rotation) are also going to be missed by someone's model


The OP about Sengun being above average is just wrong though.

Eye test shows he's really bad, can't guard big or small guys. He has good moments basically based on having quick hands and good anticipation, but there's a reason why he's increasingly and relentlessly targeted, especially now as non tanking teams get more into a playoff mindset

Stats don't look very good either. The stats that purport to show him as "average" or "above average" are things like "Defensive RAPTOR WAR"

Defensive RAPTOR WAR makes weird claims, like basically that Nikola Jokic is turning in DPOY caliber seasons as good as peak Gobert

Why? I can't really tell, the documentation is pretty complex, my guess is it's heavily weighted towards center-centric stats, like defensive boards and being the closest defender on makes/misses (it explicitly excludes blocks, fwiw).

The centers in the league are all very tightly bunched, with Sengun's +0.6 being not really above average but squarely in the middle. The "worst" regularly playing (>1300min)center is Valenciaunas with -2.8 defensive RAPTOR, the "best" is Jokic with +4.6. (Gobert 4.5, Embiid 4.3). According to the long Raptor explainer the "average" historically for centers from 2014 to 2019 on defense is +1.1, if that's true he's slightly below average.

This though, is where i think the stat fails. I mean i guess it's possible that unbeknownst to mortal men, nobody impacts a game defensively like Nikola Jokic. But, maybe it's also just measuring bad proxy metrics or secondary impacts are coming in. Like, e.g., Jokic runs an efficient offense, so doesn't have to go against lots of transition so he benefits from that, or something.

Long-winded way of saying, the "stats" don't show he's "above average" and those stats seem to have some problems anyway

 

your eye test sucks

 

If you think Sengun is a franchise player and is good on defense, your IQ is low. Take his dick out your mouth. Getting a hard on for another man

 

The eye test tells me the team defense is so bad, you can't even really evaluate individuals. The metrics just don't account for how atrocious our scheme is. It's literally high school level stuff the way we over help or miss rotations and even when we do rotate we break as soon as an extra pass is made. You can basically have target practice against us at this point with how easy it is to blow by the primary defender.

 

Sengun is a franchise player
his defense is not good, he needs to fix it and he will
i didnt see his dick , you are seaching it in wrong place , go to you mamas bedroom

 

Don’t ever ****ing mention my mom again.. you don’t know my life to be bringing her up. Back to basketball…. Sengun is a bench player on a good team and will rarely see the floor in a playoff series. His defense will always be bad and we’re gonna trade him. You all may follow his ass to his new team

 

Similarly to the poster who wanted to swallow his c*m to prove a point.

Yall are just thinking the wrong direction.

 

Wtf. Who said that?!

 

One of the reasons these defensive metrics often differ from eye test is because they don't measure the same thing that most fans consider "being good at defense". What I mean by that is there's a difference between "defensive impact" and "how good are you at guarding people." To give an example, most people don't consider rebounding to be part of defense, at least I don't think so. Like if I said "he's a good defender because he gets a lot of rebounds" I think most people would say "what are you talking about?" But these defensive metrics try to measure how much you prevent the other team from scoring, and grabbing defensive rebounds is a good way to prevent the other team from scoring. If the other team is getting a lot of second chances from offensive rebounds, they're gonna have a really high offensive rating, and that means you have a poor defense.

A second example of this is taking charges, that's another place where people would raise an eyebrow if you said "he's a good defender because he takes a lot of charges." I think most people would separate those as two different categories, there are a lot of guys who are poor at "guarding" but also take a lot of charges. Like Garrison Matthews or Kevin love are both guys who take a lot of charges, and they're also pretty bad at guarding people. But if you think about the defensive impact of that play, that is a play that has a high defensive impact, you're creating a turnover, preventing a score, and getting an opponent into foul trouble.

Your example is actually a good one, too, a "proxy metric" as you called it, where he prevents the other team from getting a lot of transition opportunities. I don't know if that's necessarily true, but like, the idea is a good one. It's a good example of an action that prevents the other team from scoring a lot of points, despite the fact that the player causing it isn't good at guarding people AKA traditionally "good at defense."

 

This is from 2013 to 2019, but "average" Defensive RAPTOR has a clear positional distribution when it comes to guards vs. big men

Code:

POSITION OFFENSE DEFENSE COMBINED OFFENSE DEFENSE COMBINED
PG    +1.00    -0.50    +0.50    -1.10    -1.65    -2.75
SG    +0.20    -0.55    -0.35    -1.50    -1.25    -2.75
SF    -0.05    +0.05    +0.00    -1.90    -0.85    -2.75
PF    -0.50    +0.25    -0.25    -2.30    -0.45    -2.75
C    -0.90    +1.10    +0.20    -2.70    -0.05    -2.75

 

So @hakeem94 was right, and Alpi is a PG?

 

I just can't wrap my head around folks thinking sengun is an above average defender when he currently can't defend guards or PnR well.

That's like saying kpj is an above average pg when he lack court vision and playmaking ability.

 

Yup! Teams go at him all game!! Either in post ups or PnR. Why would they do that if he’s above average?

 

Because he is between them and the basket? While 3 out of 4 other Rockets politely make way.

 

No, bc he’s the weak link. Do teams game plan to attack JJJ? Also, what happened when our guard beat defenders against Memphis? JJJ erased that **** at the rim. Sengun offers nothing, stop it

 

Good points. Another aspect of the eye test is we see what we look for and you miss what you don't look for. I wasn't paying attention much to perimeter defense. At some point I started paying attention to it and then the games became very hard to watch noticing all the terrible d on the perimeter. Similarly when viewing Sengun's defense you can only see how he can't defend quick guards or pay more attention to the guards mistakes that leads to the situation. Or you can see generally if his positioning correct, he moves well, boxes out, hustles etc. Although we don't intend to do it, our eye tests are inherently biased. That's one way the forum serves well for me, pointing out things I don't notice.

I still think he is on track to be at least an average defender, and would not put too much weight what he cannot do at 20 years old in a terrible defensive team. I am more worried about whether he will find a team that will use his offensive skillset effectively.