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Extension Estimates

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by htownbball, Feb 23, 2023.

  1. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    Ok let's look at extending Framber, Altuve, Bregman AND Tucker and seeing how that would look.

    For Framber I am looking at the average of Luis Castillo's and Sandy Alcantara's extensions- 5yrs / $82M.

    Altuve - 3 yrs / $75M

    Bregman (Rendon's deal) - 7 yrs / $245M

    Tucker - 11 yrs / $300M

    2026- CBT $244M

    With McCullers, Alvarez, and Javier that is 7 contracts for $152.637M

    0-3 yr player pool, minor leaguers on 40 man, and benefits are estimated to total $21.917M.

    That leaves $69.446M for 19 players ($3.66M each) to fill out the roster
     
  2. BlindHog

    BlindHog Member

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    My point was not to argue for Dirden. My point was to argue against extending Tucker. I do not believe extending Tucker would be a better result than not. He is under contract for five more seasons. He will be 31 in his final season and well on his way into decline. His most likely replacement is perhaps Luis Baez or more likely someone we have not even heard of yet. There is no reason to consider spending more on him.
     
  3. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    ?

    Am I misunderstanding you or are you confused?

    Tucker is a free agent after the 2025 season (his age 28 season)
     
  4. BlindHog

    BlindHog Member

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    I apologize. i have been basing my argument on bad information I had in my notes. no wonder we where so far apart on this issue.
     
    IdStrosfan likes this.
  5. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    There is little to no doubt that Tucker is better than any potential replacement for the next 3 seasons.

    The question is then, at age 29 would there be a better option in the organization.

    And if not, then at what point do the scales tip.

    And furthermore when does his salary stop outweighing whatever extra production he brings

    For my thinking additional salary means nothing until/unless the payroll is high enough to hinder other players on the roster.
     
  6. Major

    Major Member

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    This seems dangerously top-heavy to me, especially with Altuve being mid-30s, Bregman likely starting to decline, and McCullers injured half the season.

    Comparatively, 2023's payroll for the top 7 players is $118MM. 2022 was $111MM. 2020 was $125MM but several of those players were coming off the books, leaving the team a lot of flexibility.
     
    Nook likes this.
  7. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    The Astros have had 21 or fewer players arbitration level or above every year.

    5 pre arb players are $3.75M.

    That would leave $65M for the remaining 14 players. That's over $4.5M per player.

    That is plenty

    $152M for the top 7 players is too much if you cap spending.

    But if you are willing to pay up to the CBT threshold it's fine.

    And for a team that expects to compete for a WS every year and has made 4, winning 2 in the past 6 years, the owner should be willing to spend.
     
    rockbox, Wulaw Horn and cmlmel77 like this.

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