I think it remains to be seen. He struck out >25% in both A and High A. The track record of 23 year olds who strike out that much at those levels is extremely poor. He did seem to take a step forward when he got to AA but still struck out quite a bit. I will be extremely surprised if he ever strikes out less than 25% in the majors; between that and the fact that he is better fit in the corner on defense, there is pretty narrow margin for his power and walk rate to carry him. Like I mentioned up thread, I do think there’s a chance he can be a valuable player on par with someone like Teoscar Hernandez. But I would not bet on him reaching that outcome.
He certainly has a small margin for error, but if he strikes out at a rate similar to last year, in the big leagues, he will likely be okay. He is trying to shove 3-4 years of development into a very short window as well. As far as defense is concerned, he can cover center if needed but I think he is better suited on the corners. The Astros internally don't really rely on WAR, but with a plus glove on the corner and some power and average - I could see him having a good 5 year span at some point. He is far from a certainty though.
Aaron Judge and George Springer, who are just the first 2 guys I looked up struck out at a similar rate and a similar age in AA/AAA I don't know if his hit tool will be good enough in the majors, I've never watched him play, but I don't see the huge hang-up on his K rate. By modern standards it's a little high, but not Pedro Leon unacceptable high.
Both of those guys were a year younger than Dirden at the same level and also were generally much more highly regarded defensively. Both were also 1st round draft picks. Like I said it’s not impossible that Dirden pans out, I’m just pointing out that the odds should be viewed as long.
Dirden is both not young but also flew through the system moving from A to AAA in less than two full seasons. Had he not lost a year due to COVID, Dirden could have hit AAA at the same age as Springer. Still, hard to say whether this guy is a legit above average MLB hitter or just a AAAA dude.
I haven't seen him play, but his stats and ability to play anywhere in the outfield says 4th outfielder at worst. Why are you hung up on guys being 1st rd picks? Guys can play or they cant.
I wouldn’t say I’m “hung up” on it. But a player’s signing bonus (which is correlated to draft position) is the single most predictive publicly available metric there is (although I would accept an argument for it being second next to age relative to league). It is far more predictive than AAA slash lines or scouting blurbs. So it’s always something I pay attention to.
I like age relative to league above all else but pedigree/signing bonus amount is probably my next favorite metric. I really don’t pay attention to slash lines in the minors beyond seeing whether a guy is holding his own at a younger than typical age for the league.
Stats do matter. K/bb percentages are predictive. Power numbers have some predictive value. Baserunning stats less so, but they aren’t totally meaningless. But all of that pales in comparison to bonus amounts and age relative to league.
Sure. I just typically don’t pay any attention to numbers unless it’s a guy young for his league though- then I will look at them. I don’t care what a 23 YO at A ball is doing at all. If he’s in AA or AAA then I’m going to look at three true outcome stuff and see if I like that. Unless someone on here is super excited about a guy. Then I pay attention some.
Minor league stats can matter a good deal. For instance, look at how strong the correlations between MiLB and MLB stats can be based on only 300 MiLB PAs https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/minors-to-the-majors-hitter-metric-correlations/
I'm on record as wanting to have called up Dirden LAST YEAR because of his production at the plate. What did we have to lose -- we would have been replacing AledMancini at-bats in the postseason.
https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https://www.houstonchronicle.com/texas-sports-nation/astros/article/justin-dirden-houston-astros-outfield-prospect-17809662.php
I will say that the pandemic did make it far more likely that prospects can buck their profiles. Basically having an entire calendar year where young players were not playing and many scouts were not watching games made the draft and 2021 minor league season a way bigger crapshoot than it usually is. Who knows how high Dirden would have been drafted with a normal 2020. And who knows what his k rate would have been on a normal development track. So even though I am lower on Dirden than most people on this site, I do recognize that there are factors that might have overblown the things I’m dinging him with. I think the 2022 draft and now this 2023 season will be the first where we have a full crop of players who were properly scouted and developed. I expect to look back on the 2020 and 2021 drafts and for it to be really wacky in terms of where the best players were taken.
I don't know if you are lower since most people never even heard of him until ST. I just think there are plenty of indicators that can provide some optimism that he may achieve higher than his pedigree. I posted in the other thread that he's only played around 300 games of baseball since he turned 18. He could totally suck, and he could turn out to be JD Martinez. The fact that 50 percent of his hits are for extra bases implies he has a lot of pop in his bat. He also hits at a decent average. He's also gained 10 pounds of muscle this off season so that adds a little to his pop.
He's older but he's only played 300 games of baseball including college as an adult, so his experience relative to his league is pretty good. Correa played roughly 300 games of minor league ball before being called up. Yordan played 325 minor and foreign league games before being called up. Bregman played 350 minor league and college games before being called up. Tucker played 400 minor league games before being called up for the first time and 525 minor league games total.
Dirden is interesting, but I think the most likely outcome for him is an averageish hitter who is good in the corners but you don't really want playing center. There's a number of players who fit this description scattered across the league. Something like Seth Brown or Sam Haggerty might be a reasonable optimistic outcome, while a David Peralta or Kole Calhoun type might be the higher end examples. I'm not sure it's a great profile to fit in with the Astros, given that Brantley, Alvarez, and Tucker are the top COF options, and long term there are better LHH prospects like Barber, Melton, and Gilbert. Realistically, I think Dirden is nice insurance for the inevitable Brantley and Alvarez injuries this season, but probably not the type that will stick around into arbitration.
Considering we probably won't be able to keep Tucker unless Crane changes his thinking. We need someone that can cover right in a couple of years
I don't want to say Dirden is unique, but his situation is unusual. On one hand, he is older than most prospects and that can be a concern. On the other hand he basically missed almost three years of college ball because of injuries and COVID and the level of competition he played at wasn't great. He also flew up multiple levels and handled himself well. The Astros have had success with some older players, and while I agree that in general terms signing bonus matters, but not in individual cases - we have a pitching staff of guys that didn't get big bonuses and have been very good - so the Astros player development system is so good it has bucked the trend. Hell, our two centerfielders have as well. All I am confident saying is that he is a underrated with the glove and athletically. He isn't a long term centerfielder, but he is a well above average corner outfielder at the big league level. He also is really good at preparation and takes coaching well. His story reminds me a lot of Tyler White, but his body is better and he is a positive on the field. So I guess the best comparison is Chas McCormick. Those guys have value, plug them in and they can play and even start for a few years if needed ...... consider where the Astros would have been last year without Chas.
Chas was a world series hero, so I will take it. His numbers, and the quote from the staff in chronical indicates he has more pop than Chas so he has a more upside. I say this as a big Chas fan. That being said, I think centerfield should be Chas's position until someone truly shows they are better than him. His performance in the playoffs should give him that. I love this time of the year because watching the young guys play against big leagueers provides lots of excitement. Last year it was Pena, before that it was Garcia, before that it was Tucker.
