Extension Estimates

The Cardinals have been good for 23 years spending even less than us.

Will we keep winning 105 games and deep into October every year, absolutely not, no matter what we do that is gonna come to an end eventually. Long term success is sustainable with good baseball ops and an smart owner.

We aren't gonna field a good roster if our top 6 players make almost 200 million dollars.

 

Agreed

And many of the people complaining about not signing players long-term will be the same people complaining about them when they're older/injured/useless. Biggio/Bagwell got their fair share of criticism in their later years... Hakeem did as well. Nobody is immune to it, regardless of their past accomplishments.

I'm not saying they shouldn't try and retain them. But I can also see the mindset for continuing on as they are. Pay the going rate for the prime years, nothing more. Takes one with little sentiment and a ruthless persona to not get romantic about certain players... Crane is just the man for that.

 

I’m not one of those but yeah- they exist. I’m clear eyed realist and understand that any extension and padre tote decision to pay guys later for production now has a cost and a guy like Tuckers job is not to be with 30 when he’s 38 but to be worth 60M when he’s 30 and only getting paid 30M.

 

Cool. The cards are my go to example of who I’d rather not be. They won two titles during those 23 years and one of them came when their team won 83 games. They’ve had no bad years. They’ve been in playoffs or playoff contention every year more or less. Nobody in the past decade has viewed them as a top 5 type to win a World Series.
There’s nothing wrong with wanting to be the cardinals. I’d just prefer to be the Red Sox and have both 110 win title teams and bottom of division finishes with superstars and retools when it makes sense.
Neither of us is right or wrong it’s just a preference.
Who I’d really rather be is always the Dodgers but even they scheduled a 1 year step back where they should only win 92 games and make the playoffs.

 

Sure, but the going rate for prime years is not the AAV of these long term contracts. It is the total contract value divided by the number of prime years. The contract length is just salary cap manipulation.

For now, the Astros model is working. But if the farm system does not keep producing a ROY candidate per year, the Astros will have to pay actual going rate for stars and accept buy outs and risk of operating losses in future years. Or go back to the same exceptional profits they made in the tanking years. I’m guessing they do the later.

 

Great post.

1) even either great baseball ops and a smart owner there will be down seasons over a large enough sample size.

The issue is to keep those to 1-2 seasons and recover quickly.

2) If the idea is to not pay 6+ players superstar money so that the team can have more depth of talent, then the team needs to use the Correa-Pena transition as a model.

The positions where the best/most likely MLB above average contributors are end up bring the positions that are replaced when a player hits FA.

If that is true then Tucker NEEDS to be let walk and infield needs to be the area that extensions are considered.

The next level of this would be trading that star player before FA. If Brown is as good at scouting as his rep, then he should be able to get huge returns which will sustain the whole cycle. Getting multiple 45+ rated prospects for a star that is leaving in 1 year keeps the talent level up. The trick is to do that while still having enough experienced stars to compete year in and year out.

 

There's no doubt they'll do another complete teardown when this extended run of contention finally comes to a close. Crane isn't going to chase it.

I was basing the "pay for prime years only" comment on what the Astros have been reported to offer free agents (even if they were just token offers). If their homegrown players don't initially accept extensions with arbitration buyouts, I don't see them retaining those players. However, once those extensions have been secured... they have a better likelihood of offering additional extensions before those players hit FA, which would essentially be locking them in for an aggregate of the 7-10 years, without simply doing it in one contract.

 

I'm not so sure about this part. It's one thing to do it when you're a new owner taking over a garbage team and have no expectations. Its different once you're personally experienced being good for so long, along with the fan pressure that comes with that. Drayton was willing to tear down and rebuild things in the mid 90's and trade away fan favorites to get better, but once he made the WS, he couldn't stomach losing and kept chasing that again in the mid-to-late 2000's. Who really knows how Crane handles losing after having won so much - he's basically never faced real adversity in his ownership of the team. They sucked when they were supposed to suck and then the plan worked to perfection and has sustained excellence since.

 

Those kind of thoughts tend to become self fulfilling prophesies. There is no reason to tear down and rebuild every few years unless you create a reason by misdirecting your assets. Free agency is not an opportunity to improve your team, it is a punishment for bad leadership and a certain debilitating activity that becomes exponentially worse with each free agent signing.

 

It may not be to the version 2011-2014 was, but I don’t ever see him chasing past prime players at high price points to hover slightly above .500.

Drayton did chase it… but there was still very much a budget. They stopped paying for draft picks (one year they signed nobody if I recall correctly) and shuttered all their international presences. I also think he knew that his tenure as an owner was going to come to an end soon (felt the Astros franchise value couldn’t get much higher) and he ordered further questionable trades/decisions just to keep the team somewhat respectable prior to sale.

But, you could be right… on the flip-side, Crane could also sell high like Drayton did.

 

The next time someone solves the problem of how to be at the top of the table indefinitely in whatever sport they compete in without being at the top of the chart in money spent will be the first. Unless you have Tom Brady or Michael Jordan in a salary cap league. Then you are great for as long as they are I guess.

 

If Crane was looking to sell the team in 3 years, he would pretty much run the team exactly the way he has. Not saying he will. He is just running a tight financial ship regarding budgets 3 years out.

 

There are no position players on the Astros current roster other than Pena, and possibly Lee in a season or two that would be a good idea to extend. I would make an exception for Altuve as a face of the franchise type but would require some financial consideration from him in the form of reduced money and a year to year contract.
Pitchers I would consider extending include Brown and Abreu, maybe Valdez for a couple of years if the price could be kept within reason.

 

Agreed. Nothing will change. I’m saying he could get out rather than overseeing another rebuild.

 

I think extending Tucker is the best idea of all. However they missed the window. He has priced himself out of this organization's philosophy.

Now that Alvarez and Javier are extended the majority of the players with less than 5 yrs control are either too old to consider that commitment (J.Abreu, Brantley) or replaceable (McCormick, Urquidy, etc)

I think B Abreu, and Pena are players to target now as they have proven themselves enough at the MLB level and will likely only get more expensive with a good 2023.

Several prospects including Hunter Brown and Korey Lee are in position to move into that position next off season.

I would like Framber, Altuve, and Bregman to be lifetime Astros. They each are highly visible fan favorites as well as still productive. Each would need to give a bit of a discount over this crazy market might deliver for them in FA but I hope Crane and Brown would go slightly higher than cookie cutter "this is what we offer this is our philosophy" amount. Having players longer than 6 years is important to fans and none of them have clear replacements waiting that project to be close to their production.

That said, in order to be able to have 6+ players at very high salaries, there must be a constant influx of young players to replace the MLB average guys as they get too expensive.

 

Current Astros roster/payroll situation for 2026.

CBT threshold: $244M

Commitments:
Yordan Alvarez $19.167M
Lance McCullers Jr $17M
Cristian Javier $12M

That's it $49M. $195M under the CBT and nobody even at $20M.

They could sign Tucker for 11 yrs / $300M (ages 27-37). AAV $27.27M and have 4 players wrapped up for less than $80M and be $167M below the CBT.

I don't know if that's possible but that's likely what Tucker wants and if the team wants him it looks like they can afford it.

 

My heart is steadfastly in favor of keeping Tucker in the organization no matter what. When I think about what I know instead of what I feel there are few reasons to consider extending Tucker. The Astros may have a relatively weak farm overall but in the outfield they are a top 5 system. If Tucker walked today I would put Dirden in RF and move ahead confidently, knowing full well that if he does not work out there are plenty of other options. We are rich with outfielders just waiting for their chance. It would be foolish to throw money at Tucker to solve a problem that is unreal.

 

That's reasonable

However - devil's advocate.

Tucker is still only 26 ( actually only 6 months older than Durden) and looks to be still improving.

There is a better Than middling chance that he is in the MVP discussion several times in the next 5+ years.

His floor is probably higher than Dirden's most likely result. Possibly higher than his ceiling.

Dirden could be Hunter Renfroe or could be Eric Anthony. Both are serious steps down from Tucker.

I love the Astros OF prospects and if Tucker leaves and a guy like Leon, Melton, or even Gilbert ends up replacing him then that's fine.

But if the team were to extend Tucker it would be a much much better result.

Prospects are just prospects. And none of the Astros prospects are likely to be anywhere near Tucker's likely performance over the next 10 years.

 

Another thing you consider is the CBT.

A $30M AAV contract in 2017 counted as 15 4% of the total and left $165M.

A $30M AAV contract in 2022 counted as 13% of the total and left $200M.

A $30M AAV contract in 2026 will count as 12.3%% of the total and leave $214M