Extension Estimates

he is a ******* sack of **** and a slug. agreed.

 

I'd be surprised if Machado is earning his contract within 4-5 years at most.

 

Machado may be paid on his 41 year old season, but this deal is all about what he does in the near future. The 30 million will hurt the Padres payroll when it comes up in the later years, but the Padres don't care. They have a great team and are in a division with the Dodgers. They are going for it in the short term, long term future be damned.

 

Yep. Run the success cycle competing for a WS at the top end for 5-7 years and then tear down and eat big contracts, move them for what you can and start over. When those guys from the start over start cloning up and getting good then build again. Such is the life for most places (and I think eventually us) that aren’t NY or LA

 

Yes… and this was true with long-term contracts in all previous eras as well. You’re paying them for the now… and the overpay later is just the price of long term deals.

That being said, contract inflation does happen. Gerrit Cole suddenly looks somewhat like a bargain.

 

They’ll likely negotiate a buyout that will keep things fine for the short term.

 

Y'all know he has an opt out clause after this year and has already stated he is going to opt out, right?

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/manny-machado-plans-to-opt-out-of-padres-deal-after-turning-down-105-million-extension-per-report/#:~:text=MLB Schedule-,Manny Machado plans to opt out of Padres deal after,$105 million extension, per report&text=San Diego Padres third baseman,his contract after this season.

ETA: Whoops, apparently I missed the news of the new extension!

 

I really think these long contracts are luxury tax management more than actual total expected years of performance. It is a simple way to "stretch" a deal to minimize early year salary on the books with the assumption by the teams that 1) salary cap/luxury threshold will continue to increase, 2) they can buy out if necessary, 3) their competitive window is not indefinite and they will be rebuilding at some point with cheap players (but fairly fixed revenue).

The performative gasping of "the team will be paying Player X $35M when he's 41" just completely misunderstands the economic rationale.

 

That too… and yet the Astros, who should be all over mitigating luxury tax penalties, won’t touch those deals for now.

 

That is one reason I don't think Crane is serious about ever going into luxury tax or investing with a multiyear perspective. I think he is planning to ensure strong profits every single year, so he won't do overpays now that he can "afford" but which create future obligations that might come when the team is weaker and attendance is lower. That is a downside of an ownership group ... he owes minority shareholders consistent profits, so he will pocket the upside these years and not put future years at risk.

 

Crane did not build a window model for the Astros. He's built a sustained success model. This means shorter Contracts and avoiding downside risks. It means developing players rather than buy them on the FA market. It means not handcuffing the team with the expectation of years of closed windows and rebuilding. It also means affordable depth over superstar contracts.

It's not an accident that he has stated he would only go into the luxury tax for the right player at the right price. And then only for a short time.

 

Crane did not build a window model for the Astros. He's built a sustained success model. This means shorter Contracts and avoiding downside risks. It means developing players rather than buy them on the FA market. It means not handcuffing the team with the expectation of years of closed windows and rebuilding. It also means affordable depth over superstar contracts.

It's not an accident that he has stated he would only go into the luxury tax for the right player at the right price. And then only for a short time.

 

Contract inflation happens. Aging typically decays a player's talent after 30 faster than inflation. I don't see long term deals as definite over pays. The later years are more like deferred payments for prime years. I see the Padres as using future money to support the team currently (i.e., the exact opposite apporach of the Braves and Astros).

Gerrit Cole's deal does not look like a bargain to me. He's barely breaking even during his prime and most of that is from before the sticky stuff checks. I look forward to Cole and Stanton's contracts weighing the Yankees down in 3-4 years. Don't get me wrong, he's still been a great pitcher, but he was paid to be absolutely dominant, and not merely great.

 

If Cole can stay healthy throughout the duration of the deal (always a big if for pitchers) and presuming contract inflation continues, I could see him ultimately satisfying the deal at the break even level. He's still striking out a ton and a top 5 CYA candidate despite no sticky stuff. I'd still take him for the $/year over Rodon.

 

So yeah- I’ve been driving at this and won’t say any more so I don’t get boooed and heckled off the board but it’s really really obvious. he’s not worried about having dead money on the books in 2030 (in my opinion) because it will stop him from being able to build a contender about it then/ he doesn’t want it on the books to lose money in a year or years when he wants to (and rightfully should) rebuild. I don’t mind a 30M payroll when you should have a 30M payroll bc you have no core or chance for success. I do mind not hammering away however high you can during competitive window.
so/ whether I’m right or everyone on here that’s sick of me and hates me is right depends on if we really are being strategic because we plan on winning in 2030 or not.
I think this is a really smart insight and well said as to what’s going on here.
And it’s… fine. Reasonable. I don’t begrudge him the right to do so. But I suspect that’s what is going on.

 

Cool. That works fine when you have a GD genius (JL) stuffing superstar talent into the system for peanuts. That doesn’t work when you pick 16-30 for a decade and don’t keep any of the homegrown guys past 6 years unless you really really fleece some teams in the trade market and conjure complete and total magic out of thin air at the ass end of the draft.
If you can nail that then you’ve solved the game, congrats. Don’t know how you plan on that.

 

..but they have kept most homegrown guys past 6 years. Bregman, Altuve twice,Yordan, LMJ and Javier, possibly more to come.

Correa and Springer are the only meaningful farm developed players that have left so far. Correa was very retainable, but we made a long term choice . Keuchel left, but hard to say we missed out there.

 

True. But not just homegrowners you also moved on from CFM, Garrett Cole and others. Point is- it’s easy to say we are going to have a sustainable model, as long as you do the stuff JL did to set you up it runs itself until it doesn’t.
I’m really excited about Brown. What I’m hearing right now from ownership seems to me like Joe Laconia and “light years ahead”. Maybe we (and they are). Maybe not. I tend to think such a thing isn’t possible in professional sports.

 

I wouldn't say they've "kept" them... they bought out the arbitration years with a couple FA years. Altuve was a unique situation as they had extreme leverage due to the previous below market contract he was locked into.

Hell, Drayton not only did the above with Berkman/Oswalt... he actually did manage to keep Bagwell/Biggio as career Astros. Not saying all of those were the right decision, and in no way am I giving Drayton any sort of title as a "good owner", but he did keep franchise icons for a team that didn't really have much historical figures... and those guys are still around the team today.

Amongst the current core, really only Altuve currently projects to finish his career as an Astro. Before the Machado extension, I would have said Bregman as well. There's still a chance they'll work something out due to Bregman's good year/injured year pattern, but he's got a new price-point if he has another solid year.

 

That's true, but the inarguable fact is we haven't lost all of our homegrown guys after 6 years, the majority of them are still here. Bregman is still an Astro, saying we let everybody walk because of something that "may" happen isn't exactly an argument I can agree with.