Dana Brown has been saying publicly he wants to keep the talent in house. With several core pieces up for free agency in 2-3 years, what would you estimate the potential contract extensions would look like if signed today? Jose Altuve: 2 years/$36M with vesting 3rd year with incentives that could bring it to $20M AAV? Alex Bregman: 5 years/$125M he probably wants to be in the $30M AAV with more years but with the injury history and performance the past few years not being at an elite level I think this is fair given this would still be 5th highest AAV behind Rendon, Arenado, Machado, and Devers. Machado contract might impact what he gets but I don't think we pay him $30M unless he's back to 2018-2019 numbers this year Kyle Tucker: 8 years/$215M with escalators based on MVP voting since he mentioned the prospect of winning an MVP and being under underpaid in a former interview. 2 remaining arb years at $15M and $20M and then $30M for 6 years. Framber Valdez: 5 years/$125M. Assumes his two remaining arb years at $15M and $20M and then three FA years at $30M per. Contract value is somewhat in line with the Luis Castillo contract. Can we afford them all?
Considering what Devers and Trea Turner just got, Tucker has good reason to think his total earnings over the next 12 years could be upwards of 325 million, I don't see him settling for a deal that only pays him through his age 33 season. The only chance IMO we sign Tucker is if we offer something like 35 AAV for 2 years, and then an opt out with some long term downside protection for Tucker. Extremely long shot he's here past 2025. The Framber AAV is too high, but the total number is probably a little low to lock him in. I really don't know what's in Frambers mind, does he want to get as much money as he can in this deal, or is he happy to take a smaller total deal with a higher AAV and try to get a second payday. Either way I think it's very doable for us. Too much variance for Bregs to say anything with confidence for the next 2 seasons. 12-14 WAR wouldn't shock me, neither would 5-7 WAR, and I'm not sure how much he's willing to settle at this point in his career. 125 may be a very fair number, but don't think it's tempting enough right now. They will work something out with Altuve. I don't know what it will be, but he's not going anywhere at this point in his career.
The only one of those that is remotely realistic is Framber. Tucker very likely sees $300M in range. Bregman $200M. Altuve is coming off a near MVP level season and isn’t going to settle for $36M. I think Altuve will be the only one they actually extend. Something like $140M/5yrs plus 3 $25M team/vesting options with minimal buyouts seems about the most I would expect Houston to offer and I think that would be close to fair. Guarantees him a sizable payday and makes him an Astro for life without too much downside.
The biggest issue Brown and the Astros face is the market. We can talk about what a "fair" price is all day but what these players want is not "fair". They play for pennies on the dollar for 6 and sometimes more years before finally "earning" the right to get paid like the other stars of the game. "Fair" does nothing to compensate them for that time. There are owners out there who pay better than fair. If Brown and the Astros stick to "fair" the players will move on. There is FAIR, there is FULL F.A. PRICE, and there is SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE which is where any extension needs to be. IMO. At the same time the team needs to manage how many and which players are worth the cost. Too many extensions means the team can't have many middle priced guys. It would be several stars on higher than pre arb and arb salaries then a bunch of prearb guys.
I think the team missed the window on Tucker and Framber. They both make enough money now and are close enough to F A. that any extension is too big and they aren't under any pressure to have the money. If either have career ending injuries right now they don't have to work another day even if they live to be 150.
Tucker was in the position from the moment he was drafted. I don’t think Tucker was ever a viable extension candidate. Some guys just want to test their value on the open market. Framber was and still is an extension candidate, but the problem is that he is not going to reach free agency until his 30s. Extending him makes less sense for Houston than extending their other players. Depending on what they think of each player, Bryan Abreu, Luis García, and Hunter Brown are better targets for extensions than Valdez. I don’t think Pena is keen to extend but if he is then he is an obvious target. If Drew Gilbert really is a stud and expected to be ready this year then he would also be a target.
Pena is probably the best candidate now and I'm not sure how wise it is since his value is tied to defense at a premium position and quickness is essential. Since he was a bit of an older rookie he will he a FA at 30. That means buying out only 2 FA seasons puts him at the dreaded 32. He probably wants to either get a big payday at 30 or sign till at least 34 ( maybe more). Also, he still only posted about league average hitting numbers last year which would help keep the salary down now but not entirely since he had a big post season and won 2 post season MVPs. 10 yrs / $141.5M Correa got just under $25M for his 3 arb seasons. Let's say that Pena expects to get $30 just due to rising salaries. Then buy out 5 FA seasons at $22M each. He still has been only a league average hitter and who knows what happens in 5 seasons. Maybe he becomes a $25M+ type of player but maybe not. Maybe salaries are so crazy an average SS makes $30M per year by then. I think $22M is a perfect number. It's a risk for both team and player which is what makes it a "fair" extension.
Yea good point about Framber and age. I think the reason to extend him now from team perspective is to utilize the remaining arb years to stretch out the AAV and have a tad more payroll flexibility. If he keeps up his performance he's going to get $180M+ given Rodon's FA contract
As far as extensions go, I think they are more likely than 3 months ago because Brown is able to get Crane to give a little more than Click could. Also, Crane is also not stupid, he knows the market has changed from even 6 months ago. Altuve I believe gets done, but it is also possible the Astros wait one more year to see if there is any dip in Altuve's production in 2023. He had a very underrated 2022 season with the bat, and some of the measures like OPS+ show just how good he is. This season he is likely to not be quite as good, and we also will see how the shift impacts his glove. My "guess" is that they get it done during the season OR next off season. For Bregman, I think it is a lot less certain he resigns. He has gotten enough money to be set up for his and his kids lives, but he comes from a lot of money, and he knows if he is really good in 2023, he can possibly get a huge contract. He just had a good second half to 2022; but I think both sides want to see what he does this season. If he has an 800 OPS or less, then he is likely going to get a very different contract on the market than if he is at 880 OPS. As for Framber, if the Astros could get Javier to sign, then anything is possible. What I have been told recently is that the apprehension has been more on the Astros side. Valdez is supposedly open to a fair contract (what does that mean?). FWIW if I were Valdez I would likely feel the same way. He is a little older than some of the other guys, and the utility of an extra 50-60 million is not much when you are already going to get enough to never have to work again in your life and when you can ensure your family is cared for. I think they eventually get some form of extension done. For years I have heard that Kyle Tucker is not going to sign an extension and I don't see any reason for that to change unless the Astros want to make him one of the 5-10 highest plaid players in the world. From the Astros perspective, they still have some service time and they can see what happens. My expectation is that he will eventually end up somewhere else as a free agent and the Astros try to use the money on other areas of need. As for Pena, his dad was a ball player and he is extremely confident in himself, so my guess is that getting more than a year beyond arbitration will be hard. I personally am hoping that Brown takes the approach that the Braves did with players like Murphy and Olson. Identify players that fill a need the Astros have that will not be filled internally, trade for them and extend them. If they are extended, you can offer a little more in trade. For example, Matt Olson was a pretty safe player for the Braves to extend. He has the reputation of being a pretty good fielder, he was in his mid to late 20's, he had power and walked so he was likely to always have some degree of value and likely a consistent 3-6 WAR type player, at a high but not insane salary. Murphy is a similar type player. He will always have positive value because of his glove, and he has some pop, especially outside of Oakland. He is only going to get $12,000,000 a year for the next 6 years, and will be 34 when the contract is up. He also has a career OPS on the road that is like .830 which means his bat will likely play up in Atlanta.
So at what point do you give up on trying to extend Tucker and possibly trade him for value? I know contending teams don't trade stars but I think this could be a huge opportunity to extend the window and Brown to really put his stamp on this team. The Orioles are on the cusp of competing, in a very tough division, and have a deep very good farm system. Tucker to the Orioles for: Anthony Santander is a slightly above average RF who has 2 years of control left and can help lessen the offensive void that losing Tucker will bring Colton Cowser. MLB pipeline Balt #4 prospect and #40 overall prospect. 2021 1st rounder (5th overall) out of Sam Houston State. Currently a CF but projects to a corner. Probably ready for MLB late 2023 or 2024. He instantly becomes a top 2 Astros prospect. DL Hall. MLBpipeline Balt #6 prospect and #97 overall. 2017 1st rounder (21st overall) is a LH starter who projects to stay in the middle of a rotation and could be ready this season. He would be Astros #2 prospect only behind Brown now. Jordan Westburg. MLBpipeline Balt#5 and overall #74 prospect. A 2020 comp. Balance pick. Infielder projects aa a 2B or maybe 3B as he develops further, though playing SS now. He is rated higher than anyone besides Brown currently in the Astros system. Samuel Basallo. MLBpipeline Balt #12 prospect. 2021 International signee 18 yr old catcher is well rounded and developing. Likely not ready for MLB for 2+ years. MLBpipeline gives him a 50 grade which would put him in the top 7 of Astros prospects. Fangraphs and Keith Law also both have him in Baltimore's top 15. 2023 competitive balance draft pick. Now I love Tucker but IF the Astros could get a return like this wouldn't they need to listen? BTW baseball trade values: Tucker 82.7 Santander 8.6 Cowser 24.7 Hall 22.3 Westburg 17.4 Basallo 3.4 Comp bal. 2.3 ............................Equals: 78.7 And the Astros would suddenly have a top farm system by adding 3 players who would be in their top 4 and top 100 overall and another who would be in their top 10 even after these additions. Baltimore makes this trade because Tucker is a huge upgrade to their lineup and gives them a championship experienced player to build around for 3 seasons and don't touch any of their top 3 superstar level prospects.
My top 5 current candidates for the “acquire-and-extend” moves: OF Bryan Reynolds OF Cedric Mullins OF Randy Arozarena SP German Marquez IF Jonathan India
I think Reynolds is a great fit. Reports say he WANTS an extension and his demands appear to be reasonable. Mlbtraderumors said Pitt offered 6yrs/$76M and Reynolds said they are about $50M apart. The problem I have is that I don't see a fit for a trade. Pitt is in a similar competitive situation as Baltimore. Lots of young talent on the way but maybe a year or so behind them. However they are in a much more winnable division. The problem is the Astros don't have the top end prospects ( like I laid out earlier but on a slightly lesser value) to help them in 2023 or 2024 and a Tucker for Reynolds deal makes no sense for them even with other pieces in the mix.
Nice post, but this is overthinking it. You don’t trade Tucker just like you don’t trade Correa. This is a championship caliber team. If he leaves in FA, then so be it.
I agree that is the conventional thinking and 99.9% chance that is what happens But what if the Astros had traded Correa in 2020 or 2021 for 3 top 100 prospects? They didn't win a World Series either year. What would the team look like now?
Yea, I agree with a lot of what you are saying. 1. Altuve gets done between now and next offseason 2. Bregman- I want him extended but it's going to be very tough. Our infield depth in the minors is just not good. This is more important than Tucker in my mind. Would he jump on 200-210 million for 7 years? He gets security and injury protection vs rolling the dice the next 2 seasons. That's the kind of offer I think it would take to entice him and it might not be enough with Boras. 3. Framber- I think they extend him but if I had to guess it happens at the same time frame as McCullers. The offseason before his final season of arbitration mainly because of his age. He will want a deal well into his mid to late 30s. Signing a 5 year extension now doesn't make sense for Framber. 4. Tucker- I would be shocked if they can keep him As far as trading Tucker... if the Astros had a disastrous season and were out of contention at the deadline in 2024 or 2025 I would consider moving Tucker IF you could get a really solid package of prospects. If the Astros are winning you just keep him.
If we can't sign Tucker now and Bregman is back to Bregman over the next two years, maybe a wait and see approach is correct and you sign one or the other? But I guess Tucker wants 10 years and we know that won't happen.
I also think what the farm produces will affect who they target. The farm is MUCH more likely to produce an adequate replacement for Tucker and Valdez than it is for Bregman or Altuve. My current predictions: Tucker is replaced internally (Leon, Dirden, Gilbert, Barber, Melton, etc.) Valdez is replaced internally (Whitley, Arrighetti, Melendez, etc.) Altuve is extended Bregman is replaced in trade or free agency
Jose Altuve just came off a season where he finished 5th in MVP voting. I don't think he's going to accept a massive pay cut.
I would agree that's a bit low, but not that he won't take a pay cut. He will be 35 his first year after this current contract ends. Depending on how his next 2 seasons go I could see him agree to a 3 yr $60M maybe with a vesting option extension for his age 35-37(38) seasons. That would be a paycut although not a massive one.
And what is the butterfly effect. Maybe that forces up Pena before he was ready, he flames out, and the Astros are a turnstile at SS. I absolutely don’t look at not trading Correa as a mistake. There are too many other factors that could have played out otherwise, good or bad. The bottom line is we should be putting ourselves in the best position to compete for a WS every year and trading Tucker would be a huge blow to those chances. I also think the prospects you proposed are underwhelming compared to a return the Astros should ask for if they did consider trading him, which they won’t.
