I think what you’re getting at is separating an org’s development prowess from the value of the prospects in that org. To me that makes farm rankings pretty worthless (at least if there isn’t an accompanying “development” ranking to provide context) since player development is such a huge part of what determines the prospects outcomes. If I read you right, you’re saying Cristian Javier was indeed a 40 grade prospect, but the Astros have turned him into a 55 grade major leaguer. I don’t necessarily disagree with that idea, but I still think that should be incorporated into the farm system rankings if they are to be used to predict a team’s long term outcomes.
I agree with what you are saying. However, so much of these rankings are about potential. They even talk about skill level now and what an improved level of that skill or tool is likely to end up being and "best case vs worst case" Clearly Javier had the potential to be a 55 starter because he achieved it but these prospect ratings were wrong. If they can't accurately determine a prospect's potential then they should incorporate the organization's potential impact into the rankings accordingly based on performance and history. That would have moved Hunter Brown to a consensus top 25 prospect and a guy like Jaime Melendez into top 100 consideration.
My biggest concern is at SS in AAA. An injury of medium or long term to Pena is an emergency that there is no immediate answer for. Converting a center fielder may be a viable alternative but will take time and that will not be an option in an emergency. With Diaz Wagner and Perez I think we could get by for several weeks at 1st 2nd or 3rd base. At short stop there is no minor league depth to cover more than a short term injury.
I'm saying some guys get better (or weren't known to be better already), some don't. The data isn't perfect. MLB data is incredibly noisy. Prospect list data is even noisier. The 2020 Farm by FanGraphs was underrated as even though the Astros Farm was thought to be great at pitching in the upper levels, those guys greatly exceeded expectations along with Pena and Brown developing very well. FanGraphs has also overrated a lot of Astros guys in the past. I just don't see that many guys still in the minors putting up stats in AA and AAA like they were in 2019 or before such that the Astros are depending on young IFAs to step up, 2022 draftees, and a few other guys when in the past when the Astros had greatly ranked farms, the talent was stockpiled in the upper levels and in the lower levels. I don't think the prospect lists are worthless as even though they've misjudged a lot of prospects, the story that they tell mostly fits the AL West teams except the Angels had some shiny propsects that were way over-rated in 2020. Astros had a ton of pitching talent in 2020 and then were top heavy after that. Seattle was building a lot of talent in the Farms and went from nearly 40 games below the Astros in 2019 to 5 games back in 2021 and 16 back in 2020 when they brought it up or traded away almost all of their talent. A's have been trying to rebuild farm and the gutting of their team in 2021 was easily seen when they didn't have anything to support the MLB team. Texas has been slowly building depth and may be where Seatte is very soon provided they don't blow it. Angels farm value dropped a lot when shiny guys were exposed and the Angels only hope is scrounging up enough mediocre veteran talent around Ohtani and Trout (i'd say the rankings for the Angels have been much more off than the Astros).
I don't think the farm system right this minute is in the top half as far as producing WAR in 2023 and 2024. However, I do believe that by 2025 we will be in the top 10 as far as WAR production based on the players we have in the very low minors. As far as the overall quality of the system, I have heard for years now about how the system is in bad shape and yet it continues to produce key players at the positions of need. I remember a lot of people complaining about the international part of the system. There were a lot of evaluators claiming that the Astros had no one of note or that stood out. I also remember Luhnow saying they were 1-2 years away...... and that basically turned into 4/5ths of the Astros starting rotation. I have seen the Astros system consistently under-rated for years. It can be drafting, player development or incredible luck, but the Astros have been very good for a long time now. So I will take always side on the system being under-rated until something changes. Considering the Astros added probably the best scout and scouting director in baseball, and one of the best active scouts to a group that already is strong in analytics and development - I expect the system to at worst be as good as it has been. The international group the Astros got last year was as good as any in baseball.
You are correct, but if Pena gets hurt for more than a month, we would likely be trading for a shortstop anyway. We can likely get a stop-gap at a reasonable price.
You make it sound like 2019 was 7-8 years ago when Pena just came up from that highly rated group last season. I don't expect prospect lists and teams even to be great at projecting guys in the very low minors. I see the FanGraphs prospect lists (2021 and 2022) as basically saying the Astros didn't get much out of the 2020 and 2021 drafts and it is too soon to tell on the IFAs signed under Click except Leon who still is question mark, but at a higher level.
Honestly, by 2019 it was already out there that Jeremy Pena was going to be a good big leaguer. I had Goldstein telling me, and the Astros really were not even overly quiet about. They raved about the changes in his body and wrists. Yet, he was an afterthought from people like Law and others. He turned heads in the Dominican Winter League and still no discussions. Even in 2021, when he was absolutely raking they were all late on what type of prospect he was. He was a plus glove SS, hitting opposite field blasts and nothing about him until really late in the season. Then suddenly they bump him to #16, which was still low, but whatever. This isn't the first time either........ same with Christian Javier. All of the information was there. In 2017 Javier pitched at three different levels as a 19 year old, he had a sterling earned run average and high strikeout numbers and he wasn't even an after thought of scouting services. In 2019 he again dominated at three levels, his earned run average was under 2.00 and he had massive strikeout numbers with very poor contact. He didn't even make the top 100 in baseball........ at 22 years old with a dominant pitch, a great strikeout rate and numerous comments from minor leaguers that he was very hard to hit. There are many others......Yordan Alvarez was hitting opposite field pop ups in some cases over the fence, and yet he wasn't even ranked for a long time and then he was ranked around 50 after absolutely destroying AAA pitching as a 22 year old. He had like a 750 slg% if I remember correctly. Chas McCormick wasn't ranked at all....... Abreu, and others. So no....... I am not really that impressed by what I have seen from Fangraphs or most other publications, when it comes to the Astros. At least Fangraphs will change their evaluation, even if it is late to the party....... but I would rather rely on what even some amateur scouts that follow the team say. They see a lot more games and film.
I will concede that the 2020 Astros Farm is likely to produce a lot more value than it was rated. There just weren't enough busts to cover how great Pena and Brown have become.
Culling thoughts as things get rolling and we are only ~6 weeks from the minor league season getting started: Several pitchers who have seen their stock fall but who I think have top of the line stuff and could break out. Of course Whitley leads that pack, but Shawn Dubin, Jairo Solis, Jaime Melendez, Jayden Murray, Angel Macuare, Julio Robaina, Alimber Santa, and Alex Santos all have a chance to reset their trajectory. Jojanse Torres and Diosmerky Taveras are a couple of guys who I don’t have much hope for but are worth tracking since they can throw so hard. The outfield depth in the system is going to come to the fore this season. Imagine this organizational depth chart on opening day: AAA: RF Corey Julks, CF Pedro Leon, LF Justin Dirden AA: RF Zach Daniels, CF Drew Gilbert, LF Colin Barber High A: RF Jacob Melton, CF Logan Cerny, LF Kenedy Corona A: RF Tyler Whitaker, CF Kenny Gomez, LF Ryan Clifford Thats 12 guys all with very high ceilings; there probably aren’t more than a handful of systems that will boast that level of cumulative talent in their opening day minor league outfields. It would be very aggressive placement for Gilbert and Gomez but from the internal rumblings it may not be far fetched. In that scenario I would think the other prospects further down the depth chart would benefit from getting time on the infield. I think guys like Ross Adolph and Michael Sandle might be able to handle 2B, while Matthew Barefoot might be good at 3B. I’m sure Leon, Julks, and Whitaker will continue to get at least some time on the infield, and I expect Scott Schreiber, JJ Matijevic, Jordan Brewer, and Joey Loperfido to spend most of their time at 1B (although I think Loperfido can also play 2B). It would not shock me if Loperfido was tried at SS. This most recent draft will have a huge impact on the quality of the system. All of Fayetteville’s infield will likely be late round 2022 draftees as will most of their pitching staff. Here’s hoping Click and his team crushed it in his one full draft.
That's what Dubon and Henley will be doing. I could see Leon playing a lot of SS after he gets healthy.
Fairly thoughtful analysis and someone who is pretty good with utilizing the statcast data available for the PCL. https://apollohou.com/2023/02/21/houston-astros-top-prospects-preview-2023/
Very good list and that guy really knows his stuff. According to him Houston added 9 of their top 40 prospects in the 2022 draft. I was surprised Tim Borden didn’t get a mention since I’ve heard his underlying numbers in his stint in Asheville were surprising to the upside. Anyway, early returns on that draft are overwhelmingly positive.
Astros land two on the top 100 - Brown at 34 and Diaz at 79. In 2022 the Astros had three on the top 100 - Pena at 30, Brown at 95, and Lee at 97. Interesting that Diaz has leapfrogged Lee this year. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top-100-prospects/
57 of that 112 were drafted in the top 2 rounds. 23 were drafted after the 2nd round. 32 were international signees. Shows how badly losing 4 draft picks can hurt.
Not necessarily. You can look at the list of most valuable players in the league and the same trend bears out. Roughly half of the top 100 players in terms of fwar were drafted in the top 2 rounds.
