I don't think the line up is really "counting on" four players in their 30's. The line up doesn't count on Maldonado for anything, and they know that there is a real chance that Brantley slows down or had injuries - they can replace him if necessary. They are counting on Altuve, coming off a great year and they need an .800 OPS from Abreu but that is very realistic.
The Astros have enough financial assets to see what is not working at the deadline and address it. There is a real possibility that Maldonado breaks down and the Astros need to add a catcher. There is also a chance that Altuve gets hurt or someone regresses and they have to address that situation. We will see what happens, I am also more confident with having Brown making deals at the deadline than Bagwell or Click.
Yes. 2023 looks bright. Without spending a billion dollars, it's not possible to have a 26 man roster of established, no questions 5 tool players. This team has as few holes and weak links as any I have watched the past 45 years. And they are the reigning champs.
Things that could go wrong for lineup: Maldy washed Yordan injured Altuve shows signs of age Peña doesn’t take a step forward and is league average Bregman soft tissue injury Brantley broken and just a 700 ops slappy Abreu still no power- 750 ops type with age catching up to him. LMJ gets hurt Brown isn’t the guy we thought he could be if none of those happen this Astros team could challenge for the all time win record. if we come up snake eyes on something like 3 of the 9 (reasonable to assume something like that) then the team “only” wins 100 games and goes into the playoffs with a bye and as good a chance to win as anyone. total disaster and 6 of those things go against us then 90 wins and a dogfight for the division. 162 games is a meat grinder and something is going to go wrong for everyone. This astros team is set up to handle this about as well as anyone can be.
1."They didn’t get either deal done over a small amount of money" is an assumption on your part. 2. It is just as reasonable to assume those deals did not get done because Contreras and Vasquez had no interest in backing up or splitting time with Maldy. 3. It is also reasonable to believe that what you perceive to be a small amount of money was already designated for a more important purpose. Having cash on hand to handle future unknowns is a legitimate purpose that you do not seem willing to accept. I like you for your passion but it is sometimes misguided.
This one "Abreu still no power- 750 ops type with age catching up to him." is my biggest worry and you are the only one I have seen mention it.
All catchers split time. 100 games is a ton nowadays and 125 is super super rare. You would think 80 or 90 would be the absolute most you want from Maldonado at his age and the amount of tread on his tires. 25M is a TON of money for Oh **** contingencies. I really hope it’s used to lock up at least 2 more guys- we’d still have enough to fix holes at the deadline. This team is printing money- we could even spend into the tax a small amount and be ok if we needed a little extra at the deadline. If you had signed a Contreras or Vasquez you don’t do the deal with Brantley I’m sure. Meyers being good would really be valuable for the future outlook of this team and takes away a big need for a large contingent fund. The FA maker at the end of this year is absolute dogshit. That probably means not a lot in play at the trade deadline. If Brantley is broken then Happ becomes the rental bat tou prioritize but Chicago is really weird with how they handled the last couple deadlines.
I mean- that wouldn’t be a disaster and as worst case that’s a much better floor than Yuli last year. But it would be a disappointment and lower our ceiling for sure.
You are right that it would be unbelievable to guarantee Framber $150M at this point, but any extension with him is likely to be larger due to his age. He'll be 32 when he hits FA as is, so buying out 1-2 years of FA would likely be a disaster for him. $150M makes sense if it includes player options that require inning minimums. $15M in 2024 & 2025. $20M guaranteed in 2026-2028. $30M option in 2029 if 220IP between 2027 & 2028. $30M option in 2030 if 300IP between 2028 & 2029.
Unless we have a couple of catastrophic things happen, we are a playoff team. So we can take a wait and see attitude. Hopefully we do better than we did last year at the deadline. I also think Lee could surprise us. He hit much better after going back down to AAA last season, so he may just be like Tucker and Bregman and require some big league seasoning. I also think we can afford to give him chance since the offense won't be much of a drop off from Maldy.
I’m more afraid of it affecting Garcia. Framber should be fine. Garcia is going to completely re-do his wind-up. That has to be daunting to a young pitcher. It could also wreck his trade value.
Brantley is a luxury. We have multiple guys that can play LF and DH. If he stays healthy its a home run signing. If he doesn’t it just means we need one of Myers or McCormick to improve (which I think is a probability) or Diaz steps up as a catcher or DH.
That’s why I said Meyers is huge. Brantley isn’t that much of a luxury though man. If not him we are in the same spot we were last year when our non Yordan DH’s went like 3/40.
IF this happens: 1) it's still over 100 more OPS than Yuli had last year (.647) 2) it's still most likely above league average. 3) This team is still likely to have: Altuve, Bregman, Alvarez, and Tucker producing above that level which means that .750ish above league average OPS projects 5th on this team. And .785 is the worst OPS Brantley has had as an Astro so likely 6th. Last year his OPS was .824 His career worst is .798. Last year he had the lowest K rate and 2nd best hard hit rate of his career. I think concern could be needed in year 3 and possibly year 2 of the contract, but not this year. I hope that eases any concerns.
If If McCormick, Meyers, Diaz, Hensley could all be used in the DH. If both Myers and Chaz step up Alvarez can play less LF as well. We won the WS with those 3/40 guys. I don’t think its a huge leap that some combination of those 4 guys could make for a very solid DH rotation. Mid-season you can probably add Leon to the mix as well. The bigger concern to me is backup shortstop. Any loss of Pena for significant games makes Dubon a big hole at the bottom of the lineup.
Abreu hit for plenty of power last season. He had a top 10 level average exit velocity. His problem last season was launch angle which is why he hit a lot of doubles but had low homerun numbers.
Yordan does not want to play less LF. I realize the team has him signed long term but why make a guy unhappy? Despite his early history, he doesn't look to be any more of an injury risk in LF than anyone else.
But he has done this anytime he has had men on base already. It's not as new as suggested. And if they want to strictly enforce the balk rules, than the quick pitch is out and the full stop must be enforced. But you know it will be selectively enforced like pine tar on the bat and George Brett. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pine_Tar_Incident
