Its time to discuss trading Jalen Green while he's still worth a damn

He'll be as good as prime Lavine I think by roughly age 23. Lavine's prime is is like 26. Down year due to injury though.

Green has gifts that Lavine didn't posses at that age. He wasn't handling the ball anywhere near as much as Green. Lavine is a very impressive straight line athlete and leaper but Green definitely is a more shifty player while having Lavine's vertical. Lavine has become a very impressive consistent shooter. Can Green become a consistent shooter? That depends on his work ethic. This is his most important off-season ever. He's now going to be in year three and that's where the true greats have their big bump in productivity and/or efficiency. I'll tell you who Green will most likely be as a player in how he shows up in the beginning of next season. The improvement in things like handle, consistency in a more compact tight shot mechanic and strength need to be obviously noticeable jumps. It will be now at that point were I would start having serious concerns. And at that point it would be at "serious concerns" and not "give up on him and trade immediately".

I think that's the most fair way to judge him and seeing his highs and lows.

 

IF?

Don't you mean when????

Don't you mean when he wins his 8th scoring title and 4th MVP then everyone will respect your fandom???.?

 

Professional experience of a full Turkish league season and 15 games in a Gleague bubble tourney are definitely equivalent.

 

Hard to score when your superstar teammate needs to be the hero none of us deserved...

 

Lol when did I ever say there isn't a probabilistic nature of Green's outcomes? I've always said he has a wide range of outcomes. Of course these are always ifs. Anyone selling you certainty in Green's success are actual "fanboys". There is a difference in saying he will succeed and by a great player in this league and saying people are too junpu in and negative Nancy in nearly or entirely giving up on the guy while acknowledging the actual highs he has had that shows what his potential ceiling can be.

 

Depends on your openness to coaching and work ethic...

 

This is why I hate the players only fan rhetoric
It ends up pinning players against each other within the fan base. It's almost like you can't like both senguin and green which is absolutely not the case.
I love green and I love senguin. I would love for us to find a coach that allows the 2 players to play off each other kind of like the thing they have going on in Denver with Murray and joker.
This team doesn't need just one of those players, it needs both of those players to do well.

 

No. There is this thing called repetition. Doing it more is probably the largest reason for people getting better. It just becomes muscle memory to the point you can process higher level stuff on what's going on around the court in a high level setting against grown dudes. 15 games of experiencing that isn't anywhere close to the amount of pro experience Sengun has.

Green is still getting down the muscle memory of having dudes 50 lbs heavier than him bodying him up at the perimeter. Quite frankly thats like 90% of Green's **** ups. Just being out bodied changing his plan A.

A lot of Jabari's issues can be attributed to this also.

 

You’re no longer making sense.

 

1) Scoring points is not the only aspect of the game.
2) This season: Green's FG %: .411 / Sengun's FG %: .567

It's not only about how many points you score - anyone can score a lot of points inefficiently, if given the green light to shoot all the time.

 

You know, I think I'm convinced.

Green is the greatest 20 year old scorer in the history of the game. It's because he's so great his numbers are bad.

Don't you see? Teams are so scared of him the double him at all times leaving Sengun open for easy dunks.

When Green gets older teams will stop double teaming him because they will assume his knees are bad and then his stats will improve to league average.

It makes so much sense. He doesn't even need to improve decision making, rebounding, vision, efficiency, defense, add muscle, or anything else... he's already awesome. Haven't you seen his free throws?

 

Exactly.

 

2pt% = bad
3pt% = bad
Ft% = good

What am I missing in ts%?

 

Sorry, too many future superstars in the league that have gone on to play for 12 teams in 10 years...

 

TS weighs them all correctly to give an overall look at how efficiently the player is scoring

 

Comparing fg% between a guard and a big man who takes most of his shots in the paint isn't the most fair thing honestly. Most elite guards have lower efficiency than their big man teammates. To get Sengun that 57% fg percentage more often there has to be a chain of events to get Sengun that 57%. Even if it's a self creation bucket, often times it requires Sengun establishing post position which is probabilistic rare of failure or success. Then there is the probabilistic odds of a clean entry pass without a turnover. Then there are the assisted buckets Sengun gets more of due to being a effective roll man to the bucket. But that has other chain of events that precede it to reach Sengun's efficiency from the field such an effective screen, how the defense plays the screen, clean pocket pass to roll man, all have statistical odds. So in reality the math would be a long the lines of fg% x "probably of clean pocket pass" x "probability of how screen is defended" = actual odds of that play generating a bucket. A lot of Green's buckets are him being the only one who touches the ball in a possession. I'm not saying that's good offense. It's bad but the actual odds of of a successful play has less events to input for a successful outcome.

So my main point is that fg% difference is closer than it appears. Sengun is still the more efficient player to play through. But pretending the difference is that massive from just looking at fg% is disingenuous. People usually don't compare big man and guard scoring efficiency one to one like that due to the context I explained.

 

Not really:

https://squared2020.com/2017/10/10/relationship-between-ts-and-efg/

 

How about... "Green's trajectory looks like somewhere in the Booker range. Still can be better than that, still can be worse".


Now it doesn't sound so absurd when you beat a strawman huh?

 

Yes, that was my point.

It's the free throw component helping more than the others because it's not awful like his 2pt or 3pt.

I thought it was being implied something else was being used to get to the figure.

Points per possession would probably be clearer....

 

Explain in your own words.