update3: More than 30,000 dead in Turkey and Syria after major earthquakes

Syria. Those piles used to be apartment buildings.

 

Regarding earthquakes in general, some smart folks think one reason we have so much vulnerable architecture is that there was a 40-year gap in major quakes from 1964-2004 and lots of stuff was built during those years. Out of sight, out of mind--and of course, it cost more to build in earthquake mitigations.

 

I'm just sitting here thinking one of the places I've always wanted to visit, Gobekli Tepe, possibly one of the cradles of civilization, may have been rocked by this. So many ancient, historic, beautiful cities in that entire region.

 

Huh? I’m not sure what they are considering major quakes but there were several quakes over 6 on the Ricther scale then that caused a lot of damage. The 1976 Tangshan quake in the PRC killed over 250,000 and was 7.6. The Loma Prieto quake in 1989 was 6.9 and caused extensive damage in the Bay Area. The Northridge quake in 1994 was 6.7 and caused $50 billion in damage in the LA Area. The Mexico City Quake in 1985 was 8.0 with an aftershock the next day of 7.5.

I know first hand that the Loma Prieto and Northridge earthquakes led to strengthening of building codes in the US including major renovations of historic structures in the CA. It also led a new segment of the Bay Bridge from Oakland to Treasure Island.

 

The scale of the disaster is overwhelming. There are simply not enough responders, even with international forces arriving every hour. People will die who could have been rescued under ideal circumstances, but given the enormity of the problem, blocked roads, destroyed airports and hospitals, and the winter weather, it is far from ideal. Just the planning involved in how and where to allocate scarce resources has got to be gut-wrenching.







Living in the PNW and being a responder, one of the things we discuss is how ineffectual our local responders (us) will be if we have a big Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake (which will come with a tsunami). They might be injured or killed by the earthquake, be concerned with family and friends, not be able to get to where they need to go, or just mentally check out at the destruction brought to their community. Any significant and organized help will have to come from outside the area and that takes time when time is critical. Big earthquakes suck.

 

The thought of large earthquakes in succession gives me pause in California.

 

This picture is so sad, but should be seen.

Spoiler

 

Also the pre quake condition there isn't close to what we have in the US. Half of the affected area is a war zone and the other half has been dealing with fallout from that war, such as dealing with a lot of refugees.

 

Very important advice for anyone. Natural disasters can happen anywhere on the planet and they can very easily overwhelm our infrastructure. As @rimrocker noted above in a big disaster first responders can get overwhelmed and they themselves in a major disaster will be victims also. It's very important to be prepared yourself to deal with a disaster. To provide for your family and help your neighborhood.

As Harvey showed you could be stuck for days unable to get to stores or other services. From the Texas Freezout you could be without power and water for days. It's important you have food, water, medicine and a way to keep warm for days. Know first aid and basic survival skills. Also be ready to evacuate quickly if need be.

 

His graph there starts over 8 though, so it's consistent with what you're saying, at least numerically. We did seem to have a pause in the mega-quakes, and building that survive a 6.7, for example, might be toast in an 8.7, with 100 times the energy.

 

I noticed that but shallow earthquake over 8 is pretty much not survivable. It would be prohibitively expensive to try to build a building to withstand that and building codes based on that would be so cumbersome as to be unenforceable.

As with this quake (7.8) shows a sub 8 earthquake can do a lot of damage and there were plenty of them during that 40 year period that caused a lot of damage and influenced a lot of building codes and better construction. Also prior to 1964 building codes were much weaker. The mega earthquakes then didn't drive major improvements in codes like the Loma Prieto earthquake did.

In fact the 1999 Izmir Earthquake in Turkey that was 7.6 and killed around 19,000 led to an improvement in Turkey's building codes. That they haven't been completely adopted throughout Turkey has more to do with haphazard enforcement and costs of upgrading. I don't know much about the area of Turkey the latest quake hit but it wouldn't surprise me if it was one of the poorer regions.

Just to note we have many buildings in earthquake prone parts of the US that still haven't been upgraded to the latest building codes.

 

I have a Turkish friend and fellow real estate investor, his extended family live about a hundred miles from the quake. Crazy how fragile life can be. He’s heartbroken for his motherland. I’ve been praying and trying to do all that I can to help out Turkey.

 

They need to build a bunch of one story homes

 

Most countries don't have the abundance of land the good ol' US of A has. There are reasons everyone is so bunched up.

 

Didn’t a 1999 quake kill 17000 in Turkey? Granted, the buildings I saw rumbled seemed older than 20 years.

 

Good post, one quibble:

There are no natural disasters. Disasters are what happens when a natural risk manifests in a way that interacts with civilization. A Cat 5 in the middle of the Atlantic is not a disaster. A Cat 5 hitting Miami is a disaster. An earthquake in the middle of the Sahara is not a disaster. An earthquake in a populated area is a disaster. A deep freeze in northern Alaska is not a disaster, but one in Texas is. Most disaster effects are generally predictable. We know fuel will burn, tsunamis will crest, ground will shake, rivers will flood, areas will freeze, areas will have heat waves.

Disasters disproportionately affect the poor and minorities. Damage from a disaster is directly related to policy choices, including building codes, settlement patterns, utility infrastructure, and economics. Using the term "Natural Disasters" is deterministic and lets policy makers and others who ignore prevention and preparedness (and recovery from the previous one) off the hook while saddling many victims with a "sucks to be you" label.

Anyway, getting off my soapbox, here's a good photo showing the 10-12 lateral strike slip in Turkey.

 

Good point. Yes development patterns greatly affect the severity of disasters. If FL was sparsely populated the hurricanes hitting it, and rising sea levels, wouldn’t matter so much for it.

 

The death toll has passed 11,000. 3 days after an earthquake are the critical times where there's a better chance of survival. With the cold the chances of survival drop a lot. There still is hope as people have been found buried in rubble two weeks after but generally that is rare.