Sorry but the Astros certainly didn't miss out on Alvarez at an ultra cheap $19 million per when he's widely regarded as the second or third best hitter in all of baseball. Do the math of how cheaply we were paying him plus the 6 years of extension and it comes out to chump change based on what he's producing. $1.6 million for 2020-2022. You pay him after 2019 at what amount and what term? Is he signing a 9 year deal after that epic rookie season to get him to 2028 like we have him now? That's rhetorical. It wouldn't have been cheap. 9 years 117 million gets us to the same exact place ($13 million a year). His agent isn't agreeing to that after 2019. 10 years $117 million (2019-2028) is what we ultimately ended up with. Anybody else happy about that besides me?
I didn’t say the Astros ended up with a bad deal… only they they missed out on signing him for even less had they been more aggressive when he was a younger player… he wanted stability.
By no means is this a legit source but wondering if there's any truth to this at all: Houston Astros & KC Royals Talking Blockbuster Trade - MLB Rumors - BaseballRumors.Me Especially after this got tweeted last week:
Saw that this morning, too. Would be awesome (depending on the return for KC) but doesn't seem like reputable reporting.
FanGraphs has an article comparing Brown to Valdez instead of to Verlander (first time I've seen the media make this connection). Couple of excerpts and link below: With Brown, the velocity gap between the fastball and slider isn’t big enough to generate a whiff, and the vertical drop isn’t great enough to generate consistent swings and misses. Merely the next-best thing: hitters just pound the slider into the ground. ... Brown has never posted a GB/FB ratio under 1.75 in a minor league stop of any length, and counting parts of three minor league seasons and his major league stint, his GB/FB as a professional is 2.21. That would’ve beaten any qualified starter in the majors last season apart from Valdez and Webb. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/hunter-brown-is-framber-valdez-in-a-justin-verlander-shaped-container/
This isn't completely out of left field. The Astros and Royals have spoken about Perez in the past and the Royals didn't want to really move him and the Astros had concerns about the contract length. The Royals fired Dayton Moore 4-5 months ago, and may be more open to moving Perez than before. The Astros did not spend as much in free agency as they expected, the Perez contract is now only 3 years guaranteed at 3/63, and after this Winter meetings, that isn't a lot. Perez fits the Astros desire to have a strong leader behind the plate and while his arm isn't as strong as before, Perez can still throw out runners. I guess it probably comes down to compensation. The Royals draw a lot of fans because of Perez, so if they are going to move him, they are going to want quality assets. From the Astros perspective, do they want to take on a 33 year old catcher coming off an injury, with contact issues that also is guaranteed 3/63 over the next 3 years AND also give up good young assets? Also, I can say that Brown in Atlanta was known as a big supporter of having a strong catcher that can contribute with the bat. Even with all of Perez' contact issues, he is still a capable offensive player because of his extreme power. Altuve Pena Alvarez Bregman Abreu Tucker Brantley Perez McCormick When McCormick is the worst hitter in your line up, you are in really good shape. Also a lot of power potential in that line up as well.
Again, we need to consider the source and Perez is the face of Royals and under contract for 3 more seasons. The Royals are also looking to compete by 2024 which is why they have focused on trading players who will be FA after 2023. Therefore in order to trade Perez it will need to be a big overpay ( value-wise as they will only trade him for excess value) and include prearb players who project to help them 2024+. I would expect it would start with Brown, or at least Garcia as the established starter with the most remaining control. 3 years of Perez means Diaz is expendable. Meyers has shown enough have a Myles Straw floor with a higher ceiling and more control than Chas. Enoli Paredes has huge back end of bullpen potential, has 5 years of control remaining and ( rumor has it) looking for a fresh start away from Houston. So: Brown or Garcia, Diaz, Meyers, and Paredes for Perez and cash? Maybe $5M to get the AAV under $20M? That's a lot to give up but it really improves the Astros in 2023 and maybe 2024 and solves the biggest current problem - experienced cstching depth.
This is totally out of left field ( pun intended) but. . . What's the difference between left field and right field besides arm strength? If for some reason Kyle was not in RF, could Yordan play there at a reasonable level?
If they traded for Perez I assume they would make him the primary catcher, considering the salary and cost of players to get him here. If that is the case and they open to making Maldy a backup, wouldn't it have been cheaper and easier to just re-sign Vasquez? This doesn't add up. I thought the Astros were committed to making Maldy the primary catcher this season.
Crawford boxes, ball spins the other direction, and general aethetics that would cause old timers to shake their fist in the air are the big differences besides for arm strength needs. Alvarez has enough arm to play RF. If the Astros were able to make two clones of Yordan, Lance Alvarez and Lenny Alvarez, I'd have no issue having the Alvarez's play DH, LF, and RF and have Tucker in CF.
Catcher is a position where "regular" is still likely less than 120 or even 100 games. I think Maldy would actually prefer to play 100 games over 130 games. Perez has the bat to DH when not catching and has also played 1B which would provide insurance against injury for Abreu, Yordan, or Brantley and significantly deepen the 13 man position part of the roster. It also fills a hole for 2024 and 2025 allowing Lee ( or whoever) to develop at a much less stressful rate.
Perez would be a great add but he doesn’t have much surplus value so it would depend on either Houston overpaying, KC taking a light return, or KC eating money. A hypothetical for each of those scenarios: Astros overpay: Astros get: C Salvador Perez Royals get: RHP Forrest Whitley 3B Joe Perez OF Colin Barber Fair, Astros take on full contract: Astros get: C Salvador Perez Royals get: 3B Joe Perez OF Jake Meyers Fair, KC eats money: Astros get: C Salvador Perez $21M ($7M/yr) Royals get: RHP Hunter Brown 3B Joe Perez
These Astro player valuations seem very high to me. I think Whitley and Perez project to be AAAA players at best. Barber is a good prospect but nothing special. An offer of 3 prospects, none of whom projects to be an all star, is an overpay? I don't see it.
You might be right but there is an easy argument that all 3 of those guys are among Houston’s 10 best prospects. I personally see each of those guys as having about as much surplus value as Perez, who is entering his age 33 season with over $60M due over 3 years.
What would it take to pry Danny Jansen away from the Blue Jays? They already have Kirk and just traded for Varsho who can play both outfield and catcher.
I would agree that each could be among Astros top 10 and that Perez's contract would allow for a smaller return. I just think there are severe issues with each of the 3 you chose limiting their values. Whitleys issues are so well known it doesn't even jeed yo be explained. At this point he may have no value at all. Perez has not progressed neatly as fast as he should if he legitimately has MLB starter skills and looks to have defensive issues to lower his floor. Barber has not been able to stay healthy which dims his star, and he is the least likely of all the Astro "CF prospects" to stay in CF. Considering KC has no pressure to trade Perez and likely only will for a deal they can't refuse, I think each of these prospects would be countered with different names. They may counter: Brown, Melton, and Wagner
They already traded away one of their 3 catchers to get Varsho. I don't think anyone in MLB considers Varsho a catcher anymore, except maybe emergency/3rd catcher to help with roster construction. I don't see them trading away either Kirk or Jansen
Why would the Astros trade for a catcher when they could have had Narvaez for a reasonable sum? Did Brown let Crane know that the catcher situation for 2023 sucks ass?
1st question - Didn't have a GM when Narvaez signed, and maybe Astros thought they could trade for a better catcher at the time. 2nd - Probably.
