Lance McCullers has pitched more than 130 innings twice since he was called up, once in 2015 and once in 2021. Though past performance is not necessarily indicative of future expectations there is a clear history here. Lance can not be counted upon to get through a season. If you want him in the post season his innings need to be controlled during the regular season.
If Lance pitches, he's likely the better pitcher. If Lance doesn't pitch, Garcia is likely the better pitcher. Garcia is more likely to pitch. Steamer has the math breaking even with calling Garcia's likely more innings being as valuable as LMJ's better performance per inning. ZiPS give LMJ a slight edge, but ZiPS is projecting Garcia to pitch a lot worse than he did last year. I'd guess if Garcia pitches more than 20 innings more than LMJ, Garcia will provide more value.
To be clear this is how I expect it to play out: Javier, Framber, Brown, LMJ, Garcia, Urquidy. Cy young votes for Javier and Framber, ROY for Brown, 125 quality innings for LMJ with 2 DL trips as much for maintenance as major injury, 150 innings at 3.5 type era for Garcia, 150 inning as 4.0 type era for Urquidy. Post season rotation of Javier, Framber, LMJ, Brown. LMJ will get the call ahead of Brown bc of his experience and veteran ness just like this past year when he pitched ahead of Javier even though Javier was better.
Not sure if this is just positive GM talk or actual optimism, but I’m hoping it’s the latter. Would be incredible news. Wouldn’t be able to ask for a better few weeks as a sports fan in Houston if this materialized before spring training.
That’s what he already is I think it’s very possible he has another level. Have to remember he barely touched anything above class A ball on his way here
I don’t think many of us forget how good he is I think it’s just that most of us don’t expect more than about 125 innings from him. I certainly hope I’m wrong, because if he had 170 innings in him he could very well be a true ace. Hard to sit here and expect a fully healthy go deep into games without issue kind of a year for him though
I disagree here. I think the majority of fans understand how great Lance is when he is healthy. When he went down in 2021 during the playoffs, that changed everything. We were lucky Yordan went off against Boston during the ALCS. Lance's injury forced pressure on pitchers like Framber and Garcia who were not ready for that type of pressure. I'm not saying Houston would have won the WS in 2021 with Lance, but I know he would have a difference maker. There has always been question marks around his health. I can recall when he got his new contract that many questioned it. When you look at what pitchers are getting now, the Astros didn't overpay. I hope that in 2023 we get to see a full year that includes the post season because none of us have seen it yet. He is great competitor that represents the Astros well, but I don't blame anyone who brings up his health as a concern.
I keep saying this to people. My man skipped AA and AAA. I dont think we have seen the final version of him. I think him mowing through the Seattle hitters in the extra inning game is what he can be. He was so filthy in that game. I think he can become a good #2 Pitcher when all is said and done.
Buttrey was one of the best RP in the league in 2019. He stepped away from the game so who know what was going on but if he could recapture that form it would put 7 guys with elite stuff in the pen.
I'm sorry. It sounds to me like he likes the money more than the game. He stepped away before he realized he was making good money with it and expected it to magically appear from elsewhere. But if he can't resurrect his career with the Astros, he's not likely to do so. But that doesn't mean he might not become a trade piece if he can't break into the Astros 40 man. You have to have a lot to break into the Astros 40 man. Everyone appears to start out wanting to be The Natural. But I think all that gets you is the opportunity to work hard and become successful. I don't think it let's you bypass the hard work. New Astros always comment on how hard they work here. And there is plenty of natural talent here so it's not just the untalented turning into marginal players.
