[Official] Astros Off Season

If Abreu is going to be used as a starter he will be stretched out in Spring training with all the other starters. If not Whitley or France is closer to ready than we know, or another pitcher will be signed.

 

Nvm

 

Thank you to the Reds organization.

 

Do you think the Astros being incredibly healthy had something to do with the 6 pitcher rotation?

 

Partially, but I wouldn't expect a rotation to remain that healthy just running a 6-man rotation. It takes a lot of luck.

 

Y’all keep talking about very healthy on the rotation but LMJ missed 4 months. JV was on the DL for about a month. Odorizzi was out 6 weeks. That’s the functional equivalent of an entire missed season from one of your starters. That’s not particularly healthy. That’s not Astros in 18 or 19 or whenever it was when our top 5 pitches like 152 games or anything.

 

The beauty of a 6 man rotation is that it can easily become a 5 man rotation for a bit when there is a man down.

 

That's like saying Alvarez wasn't particularly a good hitter because he didn't hit 62 homers.

Here's a complete list of every team with 5 starters that started 25 games last year:
1. Houston

 

Bagwell on Dana Brown: "People say he checks all the boxes and I guess he does."

Grudgingly admitting Brown was a much better candidate than his boy, Ausmus.

Tucker on extension: "You know I've got 3 years of arb left anyway."

Part of the point of the extensions at this point is to buy out the arb years and extend beyond that, so him saying he has 3 arbitration years left in that context makes it sound like he isn't really even considering an extension. I might be reading too much into that, but it would seem to fit in with the general idea that he will wait and see what he can get in free agency (which, based on the contracts this offseason, who wouldn't?).

 

Relative to other staffs, missing the equivalent of one starter for a year would be considered healthy. Pitchers are notoriously unhealthy as a lot.

 

All I'm asking is to consider the partially. The stress on pitcher's arms has never been greater. I believe that there was a time that pitchers could back off on part of the line-up to save their arms and ramp it up for others. I'm just thinking the six man rotation, even with days off, might be the beginning of a trend towards mediating this to increase recovery time.

Barring injury - 5 man gives ~32 starts per pitcher. 6 man gives each 27. At 6 IP (QS) this is 30 less innings during the Championship Season which they can "spend" in the post season. There will always be injuries which are not fatigue or warm-up routine related which is where the luck comes in, but I really think the extra rest is beneficial, even if a few pitchers don't like the adjustment to a routine they are comfortable with like JV.

 

I’m not expecting much from Hunter Brown this first season. It’s very realistic he will have control issues in his first full season.
Wait and see approach on McCullers… can he stay healthy and give you over 150 innings?
I think we see a break out season from Luis Garcia this year.

 

Garcia development will be super intriguing to watch, seems likes he’s already a legit 3 on most staffs in baseball. Year 3 is when Framber took the big leap, and it appears as though Garcia trajectory has been better early on in his career. I think it’ll come down to if he can avoid the HR ball, he’s got the stuff and build to be as legit of a number 2 starter in the league.

 

Looking at fwar projections, Garcia would likely be the opening day starter on 4 teams (A’s, O’s, Nats, Pirates). He’d be the #2 on the Rockies, Royals, Tigers, Marlins, and Red Sox. He’d be a #3 on the DBacks, Cubs, Cardinals, Guardians, Reds, Angels, Brewers, and arguably the Giants (like he is on the Astros). So yeah he is about a league average SP3. I would be really interested to know if he was shopped this offseason and what kind of offers were made.

 

I like the idea of slotting Brown between Framber and Urquidy who I feel are the most likely to go deep in games.

That reduces the pressure on him and helps the bullpen if he has short outings.

Garcia is the pitcher I expect the shortest outings from. I hope he makes a step up this year but he has been bad the 3rd time through lineups.

Maybe him between Framber and Javier makes sense that way, but I can't see them putting McCullers in the #4 slot.

 

Feels like Garcia is pretty clearly #4 on this staff unless you just completely discount LMJ due to injury.

 

McCullers is our 4th starter behind Framber, Javier, & Garcia. Urquidy will pitch more innings but McCullers innings will be of better quality leaving Urq and Brown pitching the fifth and sixth.

 

Garcia
2021 155. IP 119.1 123 ERA+
2022 157.1 IP 104 ERA+

I'm sorry. I don't see SP3 for the Astros there.

Valdez
2021 134.2 IP 137 ERA+
2022 201.1 IP 137 ERA+

Javier
2021 101.1 IP 121 ERA+
2022 148.2 IP 152 ERA+

McCullers
2021 162.1 IP 136 ERA+
2022 47.2 IP 171 ERA+

Urquidy
2021 107.0 IP 119 ERA+
2022 164.1 IP 98 ERA+

 

Astro fans have forgotten how good Lance McCullers Jr. is.

He was the ace of the staff in 2021.

He only started 8 games in 2022, but extrapolated over a full season he was as good as any of the returning starters.

2022 stats over 28 starts.

14-7 2.27ERA 167ip. 175K
.226 avg against. ( .250 MLB avg)
.669 OPS against (.733 MLB avg)

I have no idea how FIP or ERA+ is figured so don't know if extra innings would change them.

He could easily end up the ace of this staff again and a Cy Young contender