Maybe they all have a chronic degenerative condition that will sap their future earning potential… or they’ve been convinced they do. Who knows…
They have players that want financial security, and to get paid earlier. I think they are deals that make sense for both sides. All were 3 years or more away from FA aside from the guys they traded for, which they had to know in advance about extending them. I don't know what is offered to any of our players, but would Tucker be inclined to take 10/$250M? Would Hunter Brown do 7/$70M. Who knows?
My guess is that a few of the Braves as prospects signed income pooling contracts. Income pooling allows prospects safety as not all the propsects are going to bust. However, when it comes to future salary for the guys that are great, they are only getting a most of their future earnings. There is much less incentive to fight for every penny, and a lot of incentive to get money sooner as after a certain amount, their pay checks are being split up to everyone in the pool (edit I should say a portion of their paychecks. Probably 10-20%).
It’s just so different for every player A guy like Tucker has never been poor a day in his life A guy like Correa got a big bonus after being drafted, he knows he is already set for life, which makes it a lot easier to gamble on a big free agent deal Some of our youth neither grew up with money nor signed big bonus deals. There are several players on the Astros right now that if something happened to where they could never play baseball again in no way are they set for life financially, those guys would have way more to gain from a big extension
I believe the Astros will come out of Spring training with eight potential starters. That is the number generally considered to be needed to get through a season. Five established starters. F Valdez* C Javier L McCullers L Garcia J Urquidy Two sixth starters / multi inning relievers B Abreu H Brown Two Minor league starters on the forty man roster. F Whitley JP France The bullpen will consist of seven or eight men depending on a five or six man rotation. Five established single inning relief pitchers. R Pressly R Montero H Neris R Stanek P Maton One or two multi inning relief pitchers. Long reliever/sixth starter, Situational reliever/fireman B Abreu H Brown B Bielak S Dubin E Paredes One or two single inning middle relievers. R Blanco S Martinez B Taylor* P Mushinski* What do you think, do we have enough? Am I missing someone?
I am very interested in what the team ends up doing with Abreu. As a general rule he is more valuable as a starter but Stanek, Maton, and possibly Neris are gone after this year. For 2024 I would sure be happier with a high leverage bullpen of: Pressly, Montero, Abreu, and ? Over Pressly, Montero, and ? Besides unless a starter gets hurt, how many starts will there be for him?
Looks right to me. 12 spots are spoken for, and the 13th spot currently looks to be between Taylor and Martinez. However, I expect them to sign a free agent RP in the next couple of weeks which would fill that 13th spot. I for one expect them to stick with Abreu as a late inning option; he was just too effective in the postseason to risk upsetting his performance by trying to stretch him back out. Rotation: Valdez, McCullers, Javier, Garcia, Brown, Urquidy Bullpen: TBD, Maton, Stanek, Neris, Montero, Abreu, Pressly AAA rotation: Whitley, Bielak, France, Dubin, Tamarez, Endersby, Hansen AAA bullpen: Davis, Taylor, Mushinski, Paredes, Martinez, Blanco Guys who will start in AA who could be options for the Astros in 2023: Melendez, Arrighetti, Murray, Ruppenthal, Conn, Record, Solis
Neris has a club option, so I would expect him to be back in 2024 unless he has some way of vesting to get out of it. I expect the Astros will have another reliever either develop this year or next year with Dubin being my best guess. I think Martinez will likely be fine as a 5th or 6th reliever. On how many starts, Odorizzi got 12 in 4 months last year despite the Astros being incredibly healthy in regards to SP.
If a team assembled a bullpen just out of these AAA starters and relievers, how good would that bullpen be? My guess would be 3rd-4th worst in the majors. It doesn't have the sure-fire top end guy, but there are probably 2-3 teams that lack a top end guy and can't match the depth of those arms.
Out of curiosity why do you think Pena would be against an extension. He didn't sign for huge money He's only got 1 year of playing time He shouldn't have any butthurt built up to the organization as they broke camp with him. He's still got 5 years left until he has a real payday. That screams to me like the kind of guy you offer 100M to in order to lock him up for his entire career (or all of the prime at least).
A bullpen of: Long Relievers Bielak and France High leverage/closers Whitley and Dubin Middle relief: 4 of Paredes, Blanco, Mushinski, Martinez, and Taylor Would probably be better than what the Cubs, A’s Rockies, Tigers, and Angels will run out there on opening day, with the caveat that I am very high on Whitley and Dubin as late inning relievers if that’s how they end up being used. Take out Bednar and Id also take that group over the Pirates pen.
Exactly my point. If Framber, Javier, Lance, Urquidy, and Garcia each average 27 That leaves 27 for Brown and Abreu together if they make Bryan a starter. And it makes no sense to send him down to stay stretched out in case of injury.
I would not send Abreu down to keep him stretched out. If the Astros want Abreu to start, I'd have Abreu slowly get stretched out with a AAA starter called up to act like a bridge until Abreu gets stretched out. Those 5 in an incredibly healthy year averaged 24 starts. Brown and others would likely need to start at least 42 games, but likely more. I'm expecting Brown will bounce between the pen and rotation until someone gets hurt. But yes, if those 5 do start 27 games, Abreu would just stay in the pen. I just see this as a very unlikely scenario and I really don't like the other options as the 7th starter. I don't expect the Astros will use Abreu as the 7th starter. He would be my pick though.
Has there been any talk from legit sources that they are still considering transitioning Abreu into a starter or is that just based on rumors?
There was something semi-legit right after the World Series if memory serves. I don't expect the Astros to do it with Dusty as manager and without Strom as pitching coach. Edit: For offseason talk without free agents left, talking about Abreu is more enjoyable than a lot of things talked about on here.
You are right that overall 2022 was an incedibly healthy year for the Astros rotation, but also remember that Verlander took up 28 starts. So those 5 started 120 of 134 games. Which would work out to 145, or 29 each in 162 game season with Verlander out of the picture. In the past 15 yrs (2008-2022) the team has used as many as 14 starters and 30 total pitchers, averaging 11 and 24. So it is possible that Abreu could be needed as a starter. I still think the team has enough starters and he is best served as a late inning reliever. Opening day 6 man rotation Framber Javier McCullers Brown Garcia Urquidy 5 Other starters in minors Bielak Murray Whitley Endersby Tamarez 7 opening day RP Pressly Montero Abreu Neris Stanek Maton S.Martinez 6 RP in minors Paredes France Dubin Blanco Mushinski Taylor That's 24
No guarantee of Montero repeating his performance, so any talk of Bryan Abreu being taken out of the bullpen is a bit shortsighted. I'd like to see him be our 8th inning guy honestly. Pressly - closer Abreu - setup man (with Montero as backup) Montero/Neris/Stanek - 7th inning Stanek/Maton/Martinez - 6th inning Martinez/Maton - 5th inning Replace Martinez with Taylor/Mushinski/Paredes/Other depending on who makes the opening day roster.
