Winning in college is helpful but not necessarily a predictor of success in the NFL Georgia’s QB just won 2 championships…no is lining up to draft him. Tom Brady played a handful of games in college, and he’s the best NFL QB of all time. Go down that list of great QBs and you find a lot that didn’t win at a meaningful level in college. And you also can find a whole ton of college QBs who won like crazy, but that didn’t matter one iota in the NFL.
Things always seem to sound so good after a few drinks. I dont even know how I could answer your questions drunk honestly. You're right.
First, I wholeheartedly agree we need another QB. However, I don't think we take a QB at the expense of value of other players. Here's an interesting article on #2 picks... https://lionswire.usatoday.com/lists/nfl-draft-history-no-2-overall-pick-best-worst-choices/ Look at the last 5 (note: before 2022 draft). Of the 5 players picked, 2 were QBs and I seriously doubt you would want to invest our #2 in either of those guys. However, if you look at the other 3 players selected, they're all impactful (2 on D and 1 on O). I believe we have to take the best player at #2 regards of need or position. We have to keep injecting talent into our roster. I'm not a professional evaluator, but I don't see anything close to a guarantee with any of the 3 QBs. However, I do see a ton of value and upside with both Carter and Anderson. If I'm Caserio and Ryans, I fight the temptation of the sexy QB pick and take the guy that helps to build out our defense. I may be proven wrong and one of the QBs is rated high enough to go #2 and I'll root for the kid. I just don't want to invest in someone that becomes the next Trubisky.
Harbaugh was there 4 years and made the Superbowl. Kelly was the failure. But in both cases, they didn't hire those coaches with a plan of firing them. Tomisula was a big part of the 49ers' previous success. Kelly was still considered a potential genius, despite his flameout in Philly. Those were failed attempts at being good (like Hackett in Denver). There aren't any teams I can think of that hired two one-and-done coaches that were designed to fail.
It is the winning along with their play. Their production and the ability to win puts them ahead of most QBs coming out of college.
It's funny: I had a draft in response to that same post pointing out that Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Prescott, Lamar didn't win in college... Until I realized... Burrow did. Hurts did. Tua did. Deshaun & Trevor did, too - which made my point, basically...... moot. I think the current environment - ie the NFL team - is far more important than the college environment. I don't doubt a kid like Burrow brought something to the Bengals' culture - but he didn't do it alone. There's luck and coaching and roster talent... I honestly don't know if Patrick Mahomes reaches this level without landing with Andy Reid and Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce... Look how big a difference Doug Pederson made in Jacksonville with Lawrence... There's so much that's goes into it, and to try and pretend there's a science to it - he won in college! - is like chasing rainbows and unicorns, man.
The Jets reached on Zach Wilson. Bears and 49ers REACHED on Fields and Lance. There is a difference between reaching on QBs and picking QB's that are consensus #1 and #2. The Bust rate for QBs is HIGH. That is why you look at their college performance along with measurables and personality. Mayfield had good measurables and production, but questions about his personality. Kyler Murray had production, had other measurables besides height (arm and speed), but had red flags about commitment to the game. Zach Wilson had measurables, Production for 1 year, but didn't have the performances against great competition. Sam Darnold had measurables, performances against good competition, but his mechanics were a red flag and ignored. Mahomes had all the metrics, but they questioned his gun-slinger nature and the offense he came from. Andy Reid refined Mahomes. Watson had the championship pedigree, production, measurables, but there was questions about his accuracy and arm-strength. All those red-flags proved to be wrong, although personality red-flags came later. Josh Allen had all the measurables, arm-strength, but not the production and small school redflag. The right coach groomed Allen and turned him into a great QB. The point is, its a crap-shoot with QBs. However, I will gamble on a QB that has performed against the best competition, in the best conferences, at a championship-level with eye-popping production. That is Stroud and Young. Young's only red-flag is size and Stroud's is OSU's history with QBs, he is natural runner, and how much WR-talent he had. Those drawbacks will not stop me from taking either of them at #2.
Bryce Young is more comparable to Kyler Murray, my opinion. I’m saying I’d rather draft the impact defender.
Buckle up for disappointment. The talent on this team is all super young. We’ve got one more year at minimum, after this draft.
That defense and qb in year 1 was good enough for last place AGAIN, so the qb and defense made that big a jump in year 2? I think coach is more important
We don’t have that defense and we don’t have that QB. You are drafting at the top of the draft again next year. You can take that to the bank.
