Next Texans Head Coach (and GM)

His age plus the injury will probably have him land into a bad situation and end up a career backup

 

He has a big uphill road to be a pro QB

 

Can we get back to HC rumors or whatever??

That’s the first big domino to fall

 

Evaluating a prospect is about projection. If you evaluate Stroud’s running ability at age 21 in the Georgia game against Mills at 24 after 2 seasons in the nfl, I think most rational people would conclude that Stroud is a more comfortable runner than Mills. Mills has never in his 2 years in the nfl had the type of elusive moments that Stroud showed in the Georgia game.

 

I disagree, there was a couple plays towards the end of the season where Mills evaded pressure and made some nice runs, one last year that was a rollout and dime to the end zone.
Stroud had two plays that he looked like an average mobility guy in the Georgia game, most of the time he looks like a plodding oaf (like Mills most of the time)

I will say Stroud moves in the pocket ok, just not when there’s real pressure.

 

Speaking confidently about prospects as for sure success' or for sure failures is dumb both ways. I don't care if some predictions end up being right... its the ones that are so far off that will always stick to the reputation.

I'm not scared to share my opinion... but I'm also not dumb enough to go out on a limb and bet the farm on something that we all know is very subjective and can be influenced by a number of factors.

Mahomes is a great example... if he doesn't sit for a year behind Smith and doesn't land with a great coaching staff/mentor like Reid, who knows how he develops? The same questions that caused him to fall to 10th would likely have still been there. The team and situation matters big time. Some players are good enough to overcome that. Some end up in the perfect marriage. And some have the team fail them spectacularly.

 

Playing the what if game is the same as playing the projection game.
Too many times has it been said that Watson under Reid would be better than Mahomes or Mahomes wouldn’t be himself under anyone else.
To me that’s worse than saying a QB prospect won’t do anything in the NFL based off precedent.

 

Exactly. You don't know ****.

You can speculate, sure. But going out and saying that so and so will fail for sure is dumb.

 

You look dumber saying the best QB in the league wouldn’t be the best in the league in any other circumstance.

And if you don’t like projection from fans (some of us in the sports field) then you should probably stay out of the forums. This is in the nature of fans, projecting and hoping.

 

I didn't say that... I said you could easily question the situation a QB is in is almost just as important as how they look on an amateur team.

Why do NFL teams care more about how a player looks at a scouting combine vs. how a player actually performed in a college game? They all know that coaching matters more at the NFL level and scheme/matchups/teaching goes a long way to a player (especially a QB) having eventual success. They throw 3-4 years worth of game footage away based on how fast a guy runs, how much he weighs, how pudgy he looks, how strong he is, etc.

And I'm all for projections... but what you're doing is flat out saying a player is going to fail. There's a big difference.

 

Completely agree. In the last 10 years, the only QB I was confident would be a success and would be willing to trade an entire trade for was Joe Burrow. And even with that, I thought Cinci should hire Joe Brady as their OC to maximize their chances of making it work. I never got that sense with anyone else, successful or bust. There's too many differences between the pro and college games to evaluate them based on their college success, and coaching has such an impact on everything. Plus, so much about the NFL is about mental processing, and we're just not in the room with them understanding what they are seeing, why they are making the decisions they make, etc. If NFL GMs and scouts get it wrong so often, the success rate of message board posters is going to be pretty low, no matter how smart we are or how much film we see.

 

History says Stroud is going to fail. It’s still a projection.
And you did say that, why even bring Mahomes up? You and anyone that says Mahomes wouldn’t be Mahomes looks dumb and/or jealous.
There’s a reason that performance has to be weighted less in certain circumstances, Ohio St has elite talent and a long list of elite performers that flamed out in the pros at QB.

Sure, maybe the right coach can get him to handle pressure better and keep up the same accuracy when there is a DB draped all over the receiver. But, what the film does say is Stroud doesn’t have the physical tools of some of the best guys in the league.

 

This is true of most rookies, too - especially the QBs. Some don't have it (JaMarcus Russell). But some do and are failed by their new organizations. Projecting a QB is perhaps the hardest thing an NFL team can do. What if the Jets had taken Josh Allen instead of Sam Darnold. Is Josh Allen a near-MVP with Todd Bowles and/or Adam Gase building a team/offense around him?

I think DeMeco is going to be a good head coach. Like Carroll or Tomlin, he seems like a guy players are going to love playing for - that matters! But if his schemes don't match their talents, if his staff is not good, if the GM fails to properly evaluate and find legitimate talent...

 

So he's going to fail based on history? Precedent? The recency bias against Ohio St. QB's? How he looks in games... except for how he looked in the most recent game that happened to be against tough competition (because according to you, that's "only one game...")?

That's already 4 subjective factors that don't even go into his actual mental acuity or his ability to read defenses/learn from coaches/process data/make adjustments... or that he's a 21 year old that still has the ability to mature physically and mentally.

I just really hope you see how foolish you look with all of this. Almost as foolish as those saying Mahomes was justified of going where he did in the draft, or those who thought Trubisky was the "better" prospect. Again, you don't know **** about **** when it comes to this stuff (not you specifically, but the general internet warrior public).

 

One game vs the entirety. Adding to the history of QBs in that system that have failed. On top of being a Quincy Avery client. None of that screams success.
I don’t remember reading a single post that said Trubisky was better than Mahomes here. In fact I think most wanted Mahomes.
I agree that it’s a crap shoot when projecting, but there are some people here that do know **** about ****.

 

Stock can't drop when the team hiring him had tunnel vision from the get-go that he was going to be their #1 target...

 

Doubtful. And even then, they're not dumb enough to go out on a limb with any of these projections...

And one game that was pretty freakin important on a big stage against legit competition... vs. how guys stocks rise/plummet based on single combine days, interviews, and a whole lot of evaluations that have nothing to do with their college "entirety".

You thinking his representation matters is extremely laughable as well. That will be the new feature at the combine... players' agents and their past dealings with individual franchises...

 

Look, I like you as a poster. But you have no idea what you’re talking about.
One game doesn’t fix his problems, no one and I mean no one that works in professional sports will make a decision based off one game.

And, who you choose as representation shows decision making. Avery is a vulture. Stroud needs to be smarter.