I believe everything that Cowherd is putting out there regarding Payton. They’re boys with and I see no reason for him to lie or misdirect away from the best option out of the teams Payton has interviewed with. For Denver it’s just about the annual salary and how much power is their current GM going to cede.
Anyone notice a pattern? 17 out of 20 times in the last 5 years has the head coach of a final four playoff team been from an offensive coordinator background. 4 out of 4 in the last two years have been head coaches with offense-based backgrounds. Hire a head coach whose foundation is OFFENSE. 2022 NFL Playoffs Head Coaches for Remaining Four Teams San Francisco: Kyle Shanahan - OFFENSIVE BACKGROUND Philadelphia: Nick Sirianni - OFFENSIVE BACKGROUND Kansas City: Andy Reid - OFFENSIVE BACKGROUND Cincinnati: Zac Taylor - OFFENSIVE BACKGROUND 2021 NFL Playoffs Head Coaches for Remaining Four Teams San Francisco: Kyle Shanahan - OFFENSIVE BACKGROUND Los Angeles Rams: Sean McVay - OFFENSIVE BACKGROUND Kansas City: Andy Reid - OFFENSIVE BACKGROUND Cincinnati: Zac Taylor - OFFENSIVE BACKGROUND 2020 NFL Playoffs Head Coaches for Remaining Four Teams Tampa Bay: Bruce Arians - OFFENSIVE BACKGROUND Green Bay: Matt LeFleur - OFFENSIVE BACKGROUND Kansas City: Andy Reid - OFFENSIVE BACKGROUND Buffalo: Sean McDermott - Defensive Background 2019 NFL Playoffs Head Coaches for Remaining Four Teams Tennessee: Mike Vrabel - Defensive Background Kansas City: Andy Reid - OFFENSIVE BACKGROUND Green Bay: Matt LeFleur - OFFENSIVE BACKGROUND San Francisco: Kyle Shanahan - OFFENSIVE BACKGROUND 2018 NFL Playoffs Head Coaches for Remaining Four Teams Los Angeles Rams: Sean McVay - OFFENSIVE BACKGROUND New Orleans: Sean Payton - OFFENSIVE BACKGROUND Kansas City: Andy Reid - OFFENSIVE BACKGROUND New England - Bill Belichick - Defensive Background
The majority of the head coaches in the nfl have offensive backgrounds. I’m not sure the playoff results are saying what people think they are.
I think, maybe, you're reading the original tweet way too literally? I doubt he comes in with one name per position, all etched in stone. But I'm fairly confident he has several names he'd be interested in - and, again, most of those are likely people he works with who have told him, Sure - if the money/opportunity/etc., is right... I just can't fathom a head coach outlining a broad snapshot of his staff isn't part of the interview process.
There is a loop of causality with the offensive coach thing that I don't think should be ignored: - Defensive head coaches are more likely to want to be conservative on offense - Offensive "gurus" are harder to find. - Good offensive coordinators are hard to keep because they are more likely to get HC gigs. - Good offensive coordinators are less likely to get fired so it's harder to just pick them up as FA and keep a system in place - Black coaches tend to be DCs more than OCs which also means DCs are easier to keep because black coaches get promoted to HC/poached as HC less often. All of these factor into why OC coaches are more likely to be successful. It's easier for them to find/keep DCs than it is for defensive coaches to find/keep good OCs.
I think Buffalo is a good example of that. Hit on everything; people rave about OC; OC leaves; Bills take a step back on offense in a Superbowl-or-bust type year. Constantly having to find new OCs and have offenses learn new systems seems like a nightmare. On the flipside, of the last 20 Superbowls: 10 offensive HCs; 8 defensive HCs; 2 Special-Teams HCs. And the 4 longest-tenured head coaches are non-offensive HCs.
No one wants to hear it but you are right. There is no way to know until he has had the job, and even then, he can fail for factors beyond his control. Ryans is by all accounts an awesome leader and guy, but he is running a very talented defense someone else built and there are no guarantees he will succeed with the Texans.
