My current 2027 projection: C: Lee, Diaz; $6M, 3 fwar IF: Matijevic, Altuve, Pena, Perez, Hensley, Leon; $45M, 8 fwar OF: Melton, Gilbert, Meyers, Alvarez, Dirden; $27M, 10 fwar SP: Brown, Javier, Whitley, Taylor, Ullola, Gordon; $30M, 11 fwar RP: Arrighetti, tamarez, Santos, Martinez, Robaina, Melendez, Santa; $8M, 5 fwar That’s 37 war on a payroll of $116M. So they’d project to be a 80-90 win team with ~$120M in available payroll. That’s without any unexpected breakouts (and of course no unexpected falloff especially for Alvarez and Pena).
Brown is known for being head strong and independent. He gets away with it because he is good at what he does and clearly has a passion for it.
My list is slightly different. 1B: Y.Diaz 2B: Altuve 3B: Bregman SS: Pena LF: Barber CF: Gilbert RF: Melton C: Lee DH: Alvarez. McCormick and Wagner are on team as 4th OF and 1/4-1/3 starter at 2b and likely increases a bit annually 2025- Altuve, Bregman, and McCormick sign extensions. Altuve's is 3/$64 ( team discount)- age 37 (2027) Bregman's is 7/$210 - age 37 (2031) McCormick's is 5/$25 - age 33 (2028)
Starting pitching looks light as I see 11 FWAR fro Javier and 8 or 9 for Whitley by himself (kidding), but yeah- if you can get 40 War for 120M and you aren't cheap AF you should be able to get that type of team to the playoffs. Javier extension would make me a lot more optimistic about chances to compete all the way through the Yordan/Pena/Brown timeline. Taking a stab at it myself I see for 2027 C- Not currently in organization (NCIO) 1B: NCIO 2B: Altuve (25M) SS: Pena (14M) 3b: Bregman (25M) OF- NCIO/Gilbert/NCIO- 7M DH- Yordan- 19M SP- Brown (13M), Whitley (11M), Abreu (10M- the one extension we sign), NCIO, NCIO RP- Who knows. Call it 4 guys on the open market and/or trade and 3 we develop ourselves for cheap. Total payroll of 115. Call it 40M in the bullpen to get to 155. Call it another 10M for the bench. That gets you to 165M. That leaves 50M or so to get to the tax cut line and you'd have to fill Catcher, 1B, Both Corners and 4th and 5th Rotation spot. That's 6 spots where to get to league average you need to spend 8-12M depending upon the position. Yeah- they better be able to develop at least 4 of those 6 spots on their own into at least average players.
More likely it isn't any more nuanced or thought out than: Catcher sucks, I don't want to squat for 120 games and I'm sick of getting balls fouled off my league and my hands and my head and I don't like getting to the ballpark to gameplan at 1:00 in the afternoon or watching all this tape. **** that **** man, lets play 1b and hit the clubs.
I'm okay as long as he is open minded. We need a person that can make the right evaluations and let Crane and others handle the the money. At the end of the day, we all know Crane has a number in his head on what he is willing to pay for something he wants. The new GM's job is finding players that are worth the price that Crane is willing to pay and convincing Crane that those players are the right the ones.
You joke about Brown/Whitley but that is another reason I am optimistic; there’s more upside than downside in the projections going out that far for Houston. Those numbers I put up assume Brown and Whitley are just serviceable SP. One (or both) of those guys breaks out and is a real (5-6war/yr) ace, suddenly the train looks way more likely to keep chugging. Same with the outfield; for now we pencil in Melton or Gilbert or Leon or Meyers as just ho hum 1-2 win guys, but if even just one of those guys reaches their ceiling as a 4-5 win player, the entire landscape changes.
Some people will listen and some will not. If he won't listen and put out max effort, he's on my short list of players to move in a trade. I'm spoiled with Baggie putting out MAX EFFORT to be the best defender he can be at 1B. The Biggio putting out MAX EFFORT to become the best defender at 2B he could be. Diaz could join that list ONLY if he puts out MAX EFFORT to do it.
Yeah I think Brown is going to be really good. Not 11 WAR good (don't even know how a pitcher would do that) but all star good and maybe true Ace level good. If we also got Javier signed and he is the guy I think he is then all Whitley has to do is be above average and you have your template for success in a post season run which is: Cy young level guy/ All star level guy/ good pitcher / average starter- get me 9 or 12 outs and get me to the bullpen. If all goes well this guy only starts 1 game per series for you in game 4 of each round. We had a better set up than that this year but we didn't actually get better production than that with JV and LMJ being bad in 3 of the 13 games and average in 2 more starts in the post season but us luckily going 3-2 in those 5 games.
Not necessarily. Some leaders want to see a guy that is passionate and opinionated about what he does, as long as he gets in line and makes nice once the final decision is made. I'd prefer a guy who argues his case and pounds the table and then puts on his big boy pants and goes and executes even when it doesn't go his way than Click who sounds passive aggressive, which to my mind is much more toxic for an organization.
I don’t see why they can’t extend/re-sign Bregman and at least one of Framber/Javier and still stay under the CBT. Agreed that Tucker is likely backfilled by the farm which is too bad. I get the impression Bregman has an appreciation for becoming a “club legend” type and the post playing career opportunities that presents…As long as you’re offering him a fair/competitive wage.
Crane has been fairly consistent in how he's treated the people he hires. He lets them do their thing... but if the results are not necessarily being realized, he takes a more hands on approach. Luhnow was given full control... and he certainly earned it when his suggestions/visions (that I believe were developed in conjunction with Crane) ended up bearing fruit. On the business side, Ryan got to oversee the MMP CF project and some minor league affiliate re-assignments. Click's inability to connect with others well, including several on his own staff, has been mentioned often. He very well could have had issues developing consistent conversation/discussions with agents, other GM's and Crane himself. Not connecting well with your owner... or not being able to forge relationships with others, has nothing to do with owners being "too meddlesome" or "power hungry". Likewise, Bagwell and Reggie Jackson being good "people persons" amongst staff, Crane, and others in baseball... has nothing to do with their abilities to run baseball operations well or be experts at player development systems.
Yes, there are a lot of plates spinning when you are looking 4+ years out. It is totally plausible that they can resign Bregman. I just don’t see that as especially likely as compared to extending Altuve and one of the pitchers. I would say the odds of extending Altuve are extremely high (90%+), whereas I am not sure I’d take 50/50 odds on them extending Bregman.
He might think that, but the odds are heavily against it. His best opportunity is to be a catcher that hits, guns down runners and plays decent defense. Those are much rarer than an all hit DH.
I agree that Altuve is 90% to extend and be a career long - Mt. Rushmore- Astro I think the chances are better than 50/50 to sign Bregman. I think Alex is more motivated than either Springer or Correa to stay if he can. IMHO Springer's priority was to get close to home and had a ( legitimate) issue with the organization and was only going to stay for a deal he could not refuse. Correa wants to win, but his status and contract ( which is what level he feels he is being respected and appreciated) are a very very close second and likely equally important. Bregman wants to win and contribute to winning above all else. He thinks about his legacy and career too and won't give much if any of a hometown discount but will hope to stay and give Astros every chance to keep him. He knows the Crawford Boxes are huge for his personal stats. I think he will get a 7-8 yr deal @$30M AAV but 65% for that to be Houston. I think 2023 and 2024 seasons at about 2018 level and Crane agrees to give him the extra year or two.
