I agree, though my numbers are closer. Arbitration is a different category from Field Value/FA Value though influenced by it. I do think the Arbitration awards will rise, but not as drastically as FA values. The two projections I saw were 5.6M and 5.9M so I start at 5.75M. If he asked for 5.75M to 6.25M, I think he wins, but he went for the big increase, perhaps thinking he gets a Mookie Contract based on rate stats. But the difference in WAR is too drastic. But the Astros did the same thing on their side low balling him at 5M. We'll have to see how the arbitration panels react to the FA award increases, if at all.
Adam Duvall to the Red Sox https://www.yahoo.com/sports/mlb-rumors-adam-duvall-red-133000743.html He was one of the last FA on the market that could have made some sense for us, though it seemed extremely unlikely after tendering Dubon and re-signing Brantley.
Yuli wants to play another year and the Astros really don't have a place on the field available. Miami is close to home if things don't work out. I'd still like to see him return to a front office position after he decides it's time to retire.
Right now before 2023 season even starts there are: 51 players signed for $20M+ for 2023 54 players signed for $20M+ for 2024 45 players signed for $20M+ for 2025 40 players signed for $20M+ for 2026 36 players signed for $20M+ for 2027 30 players signed for $20M+ for 2028. In 2021 there were 40. In 2-3 years what will it cost to sign a "top 30" player? FTR Kyle Tucker has not peaked yet and I think will be much better than a top 30 player.
It's very hard to improve this Astros team, even with an above average player. The few remaining spots on the bench, who will get playing time, should go to prospects at the beginning of the season to see who will step up, or not. An average player simply does not improve the team. Most will point to Maldonado as a place to improve and from an offensive perspective, it's hard to argue. But if he is a pitcher whisperer and improves them, he is difficult to improve. It's easier to find a rental DH than LF so pencil in Alvarez in at LF for most starts. He is rapidly improving in LF as he gets further away from his knee surgery. He is not fragile, at least his legs aren't and his arm plays well in LF. Face it, we're GOOD and DEEP.
I found most highly paid players are pitchers or IF, specifically SS, 2B or 3B. And I agree he MIGHT become even better, but you counter that with what he HAS DONE. And that is just a FA valuation without the Arbitration discount. Corner OFers are almost the lowest paid group per WAR. But many of the corner OFers have chosen to reject pre arbitration offers so it could change. A scan of those submitting figures appear to be disproportionately Corner OFers. It's almost as if it were collusion by the agents.
This was talked about when Luhnow was fired and Click hired, but worth mentioning again: there may be a little-discussed major benefit to front office/GM turnover. When Luhnow was abruptly dismissed, he left behind a trove of knowledge that could be traced back to the Cardinals long history of success, which was surely used by Click and his team in combination with what Click brought in from his time with the Rays, another organization with a long track record of outperforming their resources. If Crane were to hire Brown from the Braves or Evans from the Giants, that would add a 3rd stream of knowledge from successful orgs to draw from in less than 5 years. My guess is that no other organization has that kind of diverse, quality influence to draw from. A front office that uses the best methods/ideas from the 2003-2011 Cardinals, the 2005-2019 Rays, the 2012-2022 Astros, and the 2019-2022 Braves seems like it’d be pretty badass.
Makes you wonder why Tucker was reluctant to play centerfield. If he was average in defense in CF he would make more money on his bat alone their since there is only a few great hitting CFers.
CF is a lot more stressful than RF. You cover a lot more ground and are the defensive OF captain. A lot of good hitting players would prefer to be above average defensively in a corner than be average in CF (e.g. Springer) I don’t think Tucker would make much more money being an all-star bat/average glove CF than being an all star/GG RF’er. There’s not a ton of the latter group either.
Has Brantley taken a swing, do we have a new catcher, a new GM, any new coaches or players? I know the Astros are good, but we can all get better.
Giants,,,,they pilfered the Dodgers and the Astros. Those two teams had their hands in a lot of pies.
