True. We often see the Sengun fans in this thread (after Alpi plays well) imagining that it's a competition between them, but these two love playing off each other - in fact it's Green who learned to PnR with Alpi and then KPJ even started to learn how to do it. Green throwing the ball away when we were within 2 points was maddening, but tonight was definitely Sengun's night. Green hit two 3's to get us close but yet again his choices were not good for his or the team's momentum, could've finished them off.
https://theathletic.com/4093898/2023/01/17/rockets-jalen-green-jabari-smith/ Vecenie: Here was my thinking on Smith: I don’t see either as being the top option on a legitimate contender. And I like the archetype Smith brings to the table more than Green if that’s the case. But I should first answer why I don’t see a No. 1 option on a contender with Green at this point while also acknowledging his tremendous talent and skill level. Green is a tremendous scorer and has unbelievable tools for someone who is still 20. His explosiveness is real and allows him to create shots all over the court, and he’s improved at getting to the foul line this season. I’m going to have to write a bit negatively in the next section while comparing him to some of the best scoring guards the league has to offer, but Green is going to be an excellent player for a long time. I would still bet on him making at least a couple of All-Star appearances. However, historically, there hasn’t been anyone who is this inefficient at Green’s age who has turned into the No. 1 option on even a conference finalist team. Scoring wings like Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine would represent exceptionally high-level outcomes for Green. All of those guys outside of LaVine have made at least one All-NBA team. And the issue there is two-fold: First, I would argue only Booker was able to share lead offensive creator duties on a team that made a deep playoff run out of that group. It’s difficult for a player of this archetype to be the top dog on a great team. And second, while it is difficult to take on a heavy offensive burden when you’re 21 or younger in the NBA, none of them had a season as inefficient as what Green is currently putting up within their first two seasons (all of the following numbers will be per basketball-reference.com). All four were one-and-done players, so we are comparing apples to apples with Green in terms of career and age timeline. DeRozan was right around league average in terms of true shooting percentage and was 6 percent below average in effective field goal percentage in his second season. Booker was 4 percent below average in terms of true shooting and 8 percent below average in effective field goal percentage. Beal was 6 percent below league average in terms of true shooting, 4 percent below average on effective. LaVine was straight-up above average in both markers in his age 21 season with a lesser offensive load. Currently, Green is a whopping 9 percent below league average in true shooting percentage and 13 percent below average in effective field goal percentage. Those are large numbers. Green currently has the second-worst effective field goal percentage in the league this season among the 64 players to be averaging at least 17 points per game. Green is a player type I have less faith in as a whole playing a primary role on winning teams. I don’t know that his performances thus far have lived up to reaching the heights that some of the best players within that archetype had already reached at this point in their careers. And if Green isn’t necessarily in a primary role, I’m a little bit skeptical about how effective his overall game would be. He still hasn’t made great strides as a passer or playmaker for his teammates. He over-dribbles a lot, and his passing tends to come on his terms, not necessarily within what I’d refer to as good ball movement. There are flashes, but they’re too few. Defensively, Green has struggled this season, and there’s little to point to, particularly in regard to his inattentive off-ball defense, that makes you believe in him becoming a plus defender. The tools are there, but I’m not sure the anticipation and awareness of what’s happening around him on that end always is. Green’s upside is still high, and I have an immense amount of respect for his tools. If and when the light bulb flashes, he’s going to be a superb scorer who averages 25-plus points per game in this high-scoring NBA era. That’s why I’d still bet on him making All-Star Games. But he still has a long way to go, and I’m not sure we should expect him to be an All-NBA guy at this point given the talent around the league. That’s an exceptionally high standard, but it’s the standard of being a franchise player and the centerpiece of a rebuild if you’re building a team like the front office in Houston. Smith’s ceiling is probably lower, but I feel more confident his skills translate to playing winning basketball, and I feel his skill set is more scalable in terms of playing with different kinds of players and roster constructions that could allow Houston the freedom to explore many different avenues of team building. Smith is back on a cold streak as a shooter over his last seven games entering Monday, but I’m confident he’s going to make shots once he cleans up some of the shot prep stuff he’s had issues with early on. Everything is so smooth and clean with the jumper mechanics, and his touch is superb for someone this big. He’s been OK on defense this season already as a teenager. It fluctuates a bit, but he has the right idea and generally is reliable to make the right rotations — especially as a back-side help defender — and be switchable. He has a chance to be a real impact player on that end because of his size, mobility and instincts. He’s more limited as a ballhandler and passer right now. He desperately needs to improve those skills. But even if it’s more in a starter capacity or role player capacity, I believe Smith to be the kind of guy who helps teams win games once the shot starts to fall at a higher level. And once his frame fills out a bit more to where he can take advantage of a bit more of his mid-post game to be able to create shots, I do think he has some fairly substantial upside still too. He looks like he’ll translate well as an off-ball, secondary scorer who spaces the floor, shoots and defends. Those guys tend to be valuable in winning situations. I want to note that within the eras I was comparing, Booker did not yet have Paul, DeRozan didn’t yet have Lowry and LaVine was playing next to Ricky Rubio. And they were still more efficient than Green. I don’t want to be overly critical of Green. The team context is a mess, and he has a lot of talent. It’s much more about the idea the combination of this kind of player with this type of high-volume inefficiency at this point of his career hasn’t morphed into the No. 1 on a great team. Green has enough talent to where I would buy him being the first. But the track record isn’t quite there, both in terms of past precedents and his own results. To your final point, I agree a team on which Green is the primary option is a better team than a team on which Smith is the primary. But as I set out within the criteria I used to rank, I care a bit less about going from winning 20 games to winning 30 games. I care more about going from 35 to 45, and 45 to 55. Green helps you go from 20 to 30 comparatively because he’s a better option as the No. 1. But is he going to be good enough to take you to the 55-win threshold? My point is I’m not sure he’s good enough to do that as a No. 1 guy as a scorer, and he needs to improve a lot at things outside of scoring the basketball to be able to slide in as the No. 2 or No. 3 option. Smith probably helps you more as the No. 2 or No. 3 guy because his game is a bit more scalable to playing with another star due to the shooting and defense. I buy Smith a little more than you do as a shot creator long term as he gets older and stronger. Being 6-10 with a high release point that allows him to shoot over the top of defenders is going to be a real advantage for him. Those mid-post opportunities and some of those driving opportunities, like we saw similarly throughout that game you referenced against Sacramento, are going to get easier for him as he starts to be able to establish his position a bit easier. But again, all of this is so close, and it’s so deeply based in the philosophy of team building. They’re both terrific long-term players. They’d just look much better if they had a legit No. 1 guy sliding each of them down a peg in the prospect pecking order.
Accepting that he's #6 should be the goal, that way he can be #1 off the bench and if he happens to be hot, he can give the team a boost.... and if he isn't hot, he won't be chucking 18 shots a game limiting the damage.
this is exactly how I see Green, it's quite fair. He will have to make huge leaps in his game to be an effective winning player, if he just keeps being a inefficient skinny scorer, he's not helpful on any 50 win teams, unless he comes off the bench Clarkson style.
Basically I said similar things, that the team needed a triple threat archetype, at that time I thought someone better than KPJ now, more urgently than a SG shooting archetype. It had nothing to do with the ongoing Green vs Mobley discussion last year but a feeling. And again Clutchfans went through grinding the subject to oblivion.
The issue is triple threats players don't really come around too often, and when they do people pick them first. In Green's draft it was Cade who was suppose to be a triple threat.
I can understand the discussion about Green vs Mobley because we could have picked the other. But it is really hard to have an objective view because they are two completely different players in completely different situations. I think in a year or two, people will start comparing Mobley and Smith. They are both big men who can defend multiple positions. I think Smith will turn out to be a more versatile defender. But ultimately it will be their offense that will set them apart. If Smith can hit shots at a high percentage, he will be the better player. If he can't Mobley wins.
Both Smith and Mobley were projected to be good shooters and thus far neither really have been. Smith currently has a 50.6 TS%, Mobley as a rookie had a 54.9 TS%, but this year has limited his shooting for the best interest of his team and now has a 59.5 TS%. I think Smith will eventually have to do the same if his shots don't start falling at a MUCH higher rate. Also, as of right now, Mobley is one of the best defenders in the league. Is it possible Smith gets there eventually? We'll see. To put it in perspective, Mobley is almost as good defensively as Jalen Green is bad defensively.....and there's not many who can say that.
I think a very troubling sign with how well Sengun is playing and is looking like the more rational offensive hub than Green... Their two games don't mix well at least now and at least with this coaching scheme. You have one player who can dominate inside the paint and no where else and you have a guard who's current best trait is blowing by defenders at getting into the paint area where defenders are going to clog the paint due to Sengun. Also the claim that Sengun helps everyone around him seems to not work with Green. This season has very few plays where Sengun found an open Green or a cutting Green. Maybe it's by Silas design as Green hardly ever is in position to be at a proper angle to be the benefit of Sengun's post playmaking. But ya those two rarely connect at least Sengun to Green. You see a lot of Green to Sengun dimes through the pnr but you hardly see Green ever being the beneficiary of Sengun's playamking. It's troubling.
I see that Green mostly gets Sengun's feed from hand off at the top. Martin on the other hand gets a lot of easy dunks from Sengun by cutting. Green's hop is as good as KJ's and faster, he would have feasted more if he knew how and when to cut.
