Tanking isn't for the faint of heart. Just a half more season guys, then the focus will be on record improvement, signing skilled quality vets, and developing a winning culture of improvement. The true rebuild to success starts next year, and that won't be overnight either.
Time will tell, I think you definitely have grass is greener syndrome. Every other non-rocket player has the ability to get better while every Rocket player won't. Reality is, its entirely possible that Paolo is near his ceiling. Look at that list of ROY winners, many don't ever become franchise players. Paolo hasn't proven that yet. When he's leading his teams to the playoffs, sure, but he's still on a bottom 5 team putting up numbers on high usage. Just like many ROY players do.
Has not so much to do with stats - watch 5 minutes of 19 year old 6-10 250 lb guy handling The ball on the perimeter and even a casual observer can see he's already better than any of our theoretical guards of the future at running a game from the outside after just a tiny sample of NBA experience. And he's a big ass PF. But yeah let's just pretend he's "at his ceiling" so we can project.. Jabari Smith Jr "s mythical peak as being higher... Sure, seems likely! Even the things that he was supposedly weak at like shooting he's already better than most of our crew. Here's the thing about the grass being greener - when you're complaining about James Harden on your team, you're right, you may regret your wish But when your grass is dried up thatch and dirt, such as having the worst team in basketball for 3 years straight - it's statistically very likely that rhe grass is greener because frankly it's hard to get worse than this pathetic state, unless you've traded your draft picks... Oops...
And all of those guys that won ROY it also seemed like a sure thing too. Tyreke looked like a mini-Lebron. When your usage is as high as his is and your team is practically built for you to put up good numbers than sure, you will. You're pretending that every Rockets player is near their ceiling... The thing is you would have been one of those Celtic fans that wanted to blow up the team and trade Jaylen Brown or Tatum away because they weren't tearing it up at 21.
There is no other way to end this discussion than to know the future. Every team in this league has a chance to be decent again, it's just the when and how. Why talk about grass being greener when all you could do is wait until you are there.
Again, watch Jabari Smith try to dribble drive, watch Paolo Banchero doing it, then come talk to me about ceilings. The skills gap between the 2 are not ones you learn. Smith is honestly going to struggle to even make second team all rookie, with good reason. Jayson Tatum was first team... and an all star by 21. People like to note the success stories "hold on to these guys because they'll flourish like Tatum and Brown!" There's as many or more Markelle Fultz and Dragan Benders out there - these possibilities are equally or more likely
Jabari could be a MVP level player and just be an average dribbler and his handles have improved dramatically already. Not like Dirk was slicing through the lane. I don't care if Jabari is on all rookie team, that don't matter. I want him to be All-NBA 5 years from now. Also. Giannis couldn't dribble at all until like...I don't know, his 6th year in the NBA. You're assuming that Paolo will improve but as @daywalker02 said, progression doesn't have to be linear, this applies to Paolo as well. Whose to say that Paolo isn't a guy that will be content with his game and never add much to it? There are many MANY MANY guys that just don't take the leap to become consistent all-stars. Karl Anthony Towns is a good one. He's practically been the same player his entire career. You look at his rookie year, his soph year, you'd think his ceiling was as high as can be but he never added to his game, never really improved, and the best you get from him is a yes, still a really good player, but no one is expecting KAT to lead your team anywhere past the 2nd round. This could very well be Paolo, a guy who makes a few all-star games, put up good numbers, but doesn't really get you wins or take you anywhere. It could be that he'll be a GOAT...but you're completely certain he's already this franchise player as if its a guarantee he's going to be great. And you are right. There are Fultz and Benders...now look at those guys careers, compare them to Green or Smith...its not even close. Those guys put up busty numbers and rarely flashed. I mean Fultz was putting up 7ppg on terrible shooting. It was clear as day he was going to be a bust and that it was super unlikely that he'd ever reach his potential. The fact that you're even comparing these guys to anyone in our core is telling how little you think of them. Meanwhile, I'm comparing Paolo to guys who have won ROY and you can look at the list, superstardom is not even close to being guaranteed. All those guys put up great numbers because most of them played on bad teams and had the highest usage and then as the team expected them to take the next level, they couldn't. Meanwhile, none of yall was picking Wagner over Green on draft night. None of yall was picking Mathurin over Jabari on draft night.
Jabari has a decent chance but Houston is likely not the best spot for development. Paolo is way better right now because he has way more moves. My senses that rarely forsake me say the Sunshine state of Florida, both Miami and Orlando are better fostering grounds than Houston right about now. I could be wrong but the track record stands as Houston hasn't drafted Top 3 for two decades until recently and Harden was going to be great anywhere.
Orlando is doing tanking the right way which is letting your young players play, competing and living with a win or loss. they have development, a decent coach and they're still going to be in contention for the a top 3 pick while having the bulls lotto pick. Stone could never.
The Magic look really good and are developing nicely. They are well coached as well. The same with the Thunder. The Rockets are so behind in their development. Three years and no improvement to show for it.
Yeah i don't follow much college basketball - i think i saw one game in the NCAA tourney where he kind of looked like **** and did nothing- so most of my disappointment is based on assurances like yours above that he's all-NBA, MVP level when in reality I'm watching him in the NBA wondering how a 6-11 human manages to struggle finishing shots at the rim, how our sharpshooting 3 point specialist has such a slow release and a lousy percentage, and how his on ball game is so bad, his defense not as good as advertised. I don't think he's destined to be as bad as he's looked this year, like i said if he becomes a good, if kind of slow, 3&D guy at 6-11 that's a valuable piece, though ultimately a complimentary one. He can improve on a lot of his shortcomings (and has at least in terms of being a disaster 0-3 feet) but none of those improvements are going to transcend him into superstar level, they'll just make him competent. Other skills like being a creative passer or creating separation - unlikely to be learned at a superstar level. Sure "none of yall picking Mathurin" because as an avid consumer of draft related media, we were all told this guy was part of a 2022 draft big 3 - that thus far is a big 1. Meanwhile is Smith even better than Jalen Williams? And finally, sure, Paolo might be a mere KAT - who is many times better than anyone on our current roster is or ever will be. I love the general tendency of some folks to scoff at players like KAT or Donovan Mitchell or whoever we consider to be a second rate superstar, meanwhile our homegrown dumpster fire smolders on into its 3rd year, bleak and bereft of hope, with malaise and miasma at every turn.
Like i said in another thread, i had to look up who Orlando's coach actually was the other day Banchero was just born with/developed a kind of athleticsm/coordination etc at his size that Smith Jr doesn't have
It's disappointing - mainly because our two highest picks (Green and Jabari) haven't looked as good as I hoped. I was expecting Green to at least somewhat continue what he did post all-star-break. But his efficiency has taken a majory drop - and his decision making leaves a lot to be desired as well. Jabari is pretty much who I thought he was - but shooting worse. Now if shooting is your biggest strength that is bad. He is also inconsistent. But he is also a rookie. That is to be expected. I hope he can get his shot back. All of those things don't mean, that they won't be the players we want them to be. But it means, that they are behind the curve of where I would want them to be right now. That's disappointing. But we all know how quickly these things can change. Sengun, Eason and KJ are better than expected though...
Well you said it, you watched one college game of him, didn't like what you saw, and made up your mind then and there. That you're talking about his release and shot being bad, don't know what to say. When NBA scouts disagree, I'll stick with them. His release is not slow, his release and shooting form is great. That the ball doesn't go in as much, that's for him to work out on, but that he's now passing up on open shots tells me its likely a confidence issue. We're talking about his finishing when he's been finishing just fine as of late. He's even been splitting defenders. I don't want to get too much into the prospect. He's not slow lol and if his shooting comes around that is enough to make him a superstar player. How do I know? Because it's been done before. Again, Dirk was a slow sharpshooting big with at best average defense. That was fine enough to win an MVP and championship. Bari's numbers are not bust numbers. This isn't even getting into his defense which at times has been outstanding. Guess you're not watching that part of the game? Yeah, a guy that shadowed Giannis for a game and held him to one of his worst games of the season has slow feet. The fact that you compared our prospects to Fultz and Bender makes me think you actually think they are putting up bust numbers and that they are comparable to the rookie/soph years that Fultz and Bender had. But again, its not about how good or bad he's playing, the idea here is that you are making final judgements on players WAY too early in their careers. We're talking about a 19 year old rookie. You go and find me a list of 19 year old players that played well in the NBA with any consistency. "Is he better than Jalen Williams?" I mean, this particular Jalen is a SG that can't shoot the three. You tell me. The point here is that progression is not clear and easy, some guys take jumps from years to year, some guys don't. Giannis didn't look like the best player in his draft class until years later, same for Tatum. Same for Curry. Same for Jokic. Same for many players. This is why draft classes are ranked years after. You mentioning Jalen Williams just tells me you have grass is greener syndrome, hyping up a SG that can't shoot the three just because he's having a decent rookie year otherwise. Unless you mean another Jalen, since there's like 20 Jalen's in the NBA that is possible too. That you are making these concrete statements "None of them will be better than KAT" is what I'm saying might not be wise to do. I've also never scoffed at Donovan Mitchell, he's produced in the playoffs at the highest level just hasn't gotten over the hump and into the finals. KAT on the other hand struggles to get his team into the playoffs every year. Minnesota is like a 3 game losing streak from being out of the play-in. Mitchell's teams are always surefire playoff bounds and very hard outs, he's also never had a true guy alongside him. Also, 2nd year. Not 3rd. Most of these guys aren't even 21 and you're writing them off. It's like you can't imagine that guys are able to improve with more experience and sometimes these improvements are large jumps.
I have two checkpoints to where I feel like it's time to start evaluating in earnest, which are after the mid season trade deadline and the offseason. The mid season deadline is where we need to move Gordon and start pruning the roster. We got 7 rookies that we won't be available to develop, much less pay them all so we need to think about attaching JC and Garuba to any packages. If we could package our 2023 late FRP for a future late FRP that would be ideal. The offseason is where we will start seeing a blueprint of the future. Hopefully we will have pruned our roster back, made some modest trades, and made some modest FA signings. There's just not a lot of great FA in 2023 and I'd be very concerned if we used a max on Middleton. I would bet we improve to somewhere between bottom 8-14 and the GARM is wholly unprepared to give OKC the #8 pick.
That's not what i said at all - i don't play predraft favorites - I'm old enough to know that i don't know **** (and neither do most pros due to the high variance of projecting 19 year olds). I was more than happy to ignore the warning signs like his abnormally low at rim #s due to small sample size (i probably even posted about it). But it got a lot harder to ignore when i had to watch it in the NBA. I was more than happy to go with the line that he was part of the big 3 with Chet & Paolo - which, again he's obviously not, on present viewing. Sigh, I've posted this multiple times but I'll go ahead and post it again. It looks slow as **** to me, but take Sam Vecenie (who absolutely hyped the **** out of Jabari before the draft and had him #1) for instance: I think it went a bit underrated throughout the pre-draft process that it takes Smith a fairly large amount of time to load into his jump shot. And when you move from college to the NBA, those windows close even more quickly, and the increase in length leads to even harder, more contested shots. This is why being able to shoot directly off the hop is so important in the NBA. You need to be able to load into your shot quickly. Doing it off of a one-two step allows defenders to get back into the play. Two clips below showcase that, one from Auburn and one from Houston. He’s so open in the second shot, and it takes him so long to get his left foot set that it allows Toronto time to recover and contest. I think it seems to even go beyond that, though. It just looks like Smith is pressing to get out of what has to be the most prolonged slump of his young career. He doesn’t look shook — he’s still willing to fire up 3s and take shots when they’re open — but it also seems like he’s getting frustrated when you watch Rockets games. My complaint is not with average joes like you and me believing hype beasts like Vecenie, Kevin O'Connor, Hollonger and the draft guru industrial complex - we're supposed to. It's them missing things that are obvious even to me - oh yeah he shoots slow, oh yeah he can't really elevate quickly underneath, oh yeah he can't dribble and create separation. Weird groupthink created a mass delusion. If you knew nothing about drafts or college and watched one game at random of Banchero and Smith it wouldn't be remotely close as to who you'd answer is a better player after the fact.
I agree, that’s why my original point was EG should’ve been traded two years ago… stone dropped the ball. Also, the cap space is overrated this year because the FA class is not very good unless you want to give a bag to harden. We still have space to take on assets by taking bad contracts that expire next year. Not saying I would rather do that, but I would like to see EG moved so our prospects aren’t rotting on the bench or in the g league.. I’ve been pushing for KJ to start for two years and he finally gets playing time this year and looks good. We could’ve been developing him instead of EG 2 years ago.
