This further shows that Kyle is gone after 2025. Neither outlets project even $6M but he wants $7.5? I so think the Astros should have gone higher. I would go a bit higher - maybe $5.5. The Astros can't win a hearing. He either wins $7.5 which sets a TOO high initial price (based on comps) for future numbers or they are awarded a too low salary and risk bad blood. At this point they should figure his arb years based on the $7.5M start and offer a larger extension 8 yrs / $215 or 10 / $270 if he requires longer There is very little risk with Tucker. His body type and skills are very low risk for early regression and he has no injury risks. He is as complete as player as there is. Even regression in 1 or 2 skills leaves him very valuable. Even signing him through age 38 or maybe 40 wouldn't be the worst thing Bite the bullet and make the exception
Javier and Tucker are the two players I most expected the team to be in negotiations with for extensions. Those involved on both sides negotiate professionally and wish to be negotiating from a position of strength. You do not give in on a side issue when a much bigger issue is your goal, you maintain your position of strength. I would have been disappointed to hear an agreement was reached to avoid arbitration because I prefer to believe that there are bigger fish being fried here.
I hope the Astros don't create bad feelings, but the players never seem to worry about bad feelings. I feel if either party came in at $5.75M they would win. With the Astros going with $5M, Tucker would win up to $6.5M. But asking for $7.5M may be a bit too far this year. No Arbitration player receives Field value unless they suck their way below the MLB Minimum like Dubon. Roughly 20%, 40% and 65% of field value is normal.
building upon this, 6M, 12M and 19.5 Million should be market for the arbitration years for a total of 37.5M plus FA years at $30M or 5-97.5M, 6-127.5M or 7-157.5M should be good enough with the performance and injury risks taken by the team. You can say that won't do it and you're probably right. But this is my general opinion of value. I would add that Tucker and Pena are the players I would extend further than we have historically. I would go as far as their age 35 season since neither has shown any hint of injury or performance problem. It is perhaps worth the gamble, even though I am generally opposed to long contracts. If they must go long, I want a Correa type contract with conditional player options with declining values and a club option if he doesn't exercise his player option.
I expect the Astros and Javier will reach a settlement around 3.35 million and avoid a hearing. Tucker will most likely see an arbitration hearing because that is too far of a gap. Anyone thinking the Astros and Tucker will reach a long term contract extension are likely dreaming. Astros don't do 10 year deals and Tucker's agent would be an idiot to accept a shorter term deal after the insanity of the contracts handed out this offseason.
Are you even doing the math on this? If his ARB years are valued at 35M, you're saying the Stros should "bite the bullet" and pay him 5 yrs and $180M, or 36M AAV. Anybody here thinks he's worth 36M AAV?
They don’t… but they’ve also not had a lot of ideal candidates to negotiate with (players who were promoted at a very young age, and who don’t seem to have a lot of health risks). Correa was one. Yordan was another. Tucker is the third. They got Yordan to agree… but he does have some injury and breakdown concern and I could see why he was likely more willing to accept an extension at the time (doubt he would have taken one now if all things played out the same). If they’re going to try and keep this going, as Yordan is signed into the post-Altuve/Bregman years, it makes sense that they’d consider Tucker as well. They don’t have to do it this off-season either.
If I was owner I would offer Tucker a 10 year deal in the 185-210 million dollar range, but until I see Crane actually hand out one of those contracts I see no reason to hope he changes his mind. My guess.... in the next 30 months the Astros extend Bregman, Altuve, Javier, and Framber. Tucker gets the Springer/Correa treatment.
Seems that extending or signing aging players, while letting go of younger players would not be the best way to extend the window… but what do I know? Also, Springer was already 31 as a FA which eliminated any chance of a 10 years deal. Correa had other issues. Tucker is younger, healthier, and likely puts up even more consistent offensive numbers during his prime years than any other Astro FA candidate.
he’s def worth 36 mil a year. LH Bat, 30+ HR’s, 20+ Steals, Gold glove. That’s pretty rare in baseball. His best five seasons ahead for $180. Sign me up.
Everyone knows young players that are great are valuable, and the least frugal owner will win the bidding war for them.
Astros have historically had a file and forget policy where after teams/players submit they don’t negotiate. But Javier’s number is so close I suspect they’re working on an extension and didn’t want to lock anything in until it’s finalized.
Those numbers are so close I would not be surprised if it means they actually are working on an extension and just don’t have it finalized in time before the filing deadline.
Tuck def isn't going to take an early deal like Yordan, odds are he keeps up similar performance and stays healthy for the next 3 years until he hits FA. Let's use Aaron Judge as a benchmark for Tuck's next 3 arb years. He earned $8.5M, $10.175M, and $19.65M for a total of $38.325M. I'm a little surprised Judge only earned $10M in his second year after putting up a .900 OPS year in 2020 when Cody Bellinger earned $16M in his second year after a terrible 2020 and a total of $44M over 3 years. Anyway, let's say Tuck gets $36M over the next 3 years at $6M, $12M, and $18M over the next 3 years. He'll be a FA going into his age 29 season. Would buying out his next 3 years at $40M and adding 7 years at $30M per year get it done for a total of $250M over the next 10 years? That would take him through age 35 and make him a FA again at age 36. Would also help us out by putting the AAV at $25M so less impact on the luxury tax. Do these super long FA contracts that take players to age 39-40 make Tucker want a 12 or 13 year deal right now to make it happen? Would you do 12 years $290M for AAV of $24.2M that would take him to age 38? I feel like some teams are getting creative to mitigate some of the risk while rewarding their players if they can keep up their performance and we aren't really doing that.
I could be wrong but that Correa deal was the only one I can recall since 2012 that was done after filing before hearing.
They also did it with Springer on his last year. That was Crane because I don't think Click was hired yet.
