4 for 80 might be an interesting offer that he might entertain. It's likely he makes somewhere between 30 and 40 in arbitration, so that would give him 1 year of FA at 40+ If you want to buy one year of an all stars prime and 1 year only you better pay him a lot of money (as we saw with Bauer and then with Correa). I don't know that keeping him for 2026 makes a lot of sense as that would be my guess as a step back year if we don't sign all Framber, Javier and Urquidy right now as they'd all be up.
Wouldn't do it. Get what you can out of him and thank him for his services. We have 3 years to replace him from the farm system. We need to focus on our 2 stud starting pitchers (harder to find vs a really good RF), Bregman and Altuve (he needs to become the next Biggio and retire an Astro). That's what is gonna keep you relevant moving forward.
Great list- thanks a lot! Stanton wasn't a bonus baby as a 2nd rounder. He did sign right as he was going into arbitration so that would be analagous. Trout is absolutely an analog. He was a bonus baby so he wasn't hurting for money and he signed literally right as he was going into arbitration. All it took to sign him was (checks notes) buying out his first 3 years of FA at 36M per year. Which, by the way, the biggest FA contract the year he signed that was for 24M AAV (Cano) so, yeah- all it took for Trout to sign that contract when he was in Tucker's position was 50% more AAV than the highest paid FA. 6-200 would be todays equivalent offer for Tucker. I suspect he would take that. I suspect that's more or less exactly the number the Astros would have to offer him to get him to take a 6 year deal. Would you do that? I don't think I would. Austin Riley is also absolutely an analog. He signed for 10/212M. If the Astros weren't willing to offer him that they should be mocked and ridiculed and the fanbase should be pissed off. I highly suspect Tucker wouldn't take that offer, but I'm also pretty surprised that Riley did. Everyone in ATL is doing so. The guys must just love that city, each other, and that clubhouse or something b/c it's really impressive what they've done and as happy as I am to be an Astros fan I am straight up jealous of those guys getting all those deals done to keep their foundational pieces. Those deals came after they won the WS- hopefully the same happens for us. Tulo signed a year before arbitration while he was still in danger of minimum wage so not perfect analogue Yelich still had 2 years to Arbitration and 5 years to FA so not analagous to where Tucker is at. He was still trying to guarantee wealth he hadn't landed there like Tucker already has. Votto is an interesting story. He signed a 3 year contract in 2011 right as he was going into arbitration which bought out all 3 years (right as he was coming off an MVP) before signing a huge extension the next year. Also, Canadian. Which is just me joking b/c yeah- he still counts. He did get a 10 year deal though for 225. With inflation and the like going on in ball players pay that would be the equivalent to giving Tucker 10/320 next year, after having guaranteed his arbitration. Again- very very very strange deal all the way around here. Freddie Freeman- 2nd round- not a bonus baby top of the draft guy. The rest of the situation as to when he signed the contract is the same/similar so ok analog. He signed 8/135. Again- with Atlanta, they have some sort of wizardry in re-signing guys. So- again- thanks for the list. Looks like the following is what it would take to sign Tucker: Be the Atlanta Braves. They are the masters at getting these deals done. Or, offer him something like 6/200M making him the highest paid AAV player out there for his 3 FA buyout years or offer him the 10/300 contract that all the FA were getting nowadays this offseason- essentially treating him as a FA before he even gets there. That's the Trout/Votto deal. The correct answer to all these deals is always to sign the guy after year 1 or year 1.5 when they are still a year (or preferrably 2) away from Arbitration. That's when you get a value. Unless they suck. Then you will regret it. But if you let the guy get to arbitration after a big signing bonus like we did with Tucker the only way to retain is to blow out the AAV on a short term deal (Trout) or sign the FA length huge deal like Stanton and Votto. Or, be the mother****ing ********ing Atlanta Braves.
Altuve isn't going to keep you relevant moving forward as opposed to Tucker, especially at this point in time in their careers. That said- I would absolutely re-sign Jose and want him to go out an Astro. Bregman v Tucker is an interesting call. I don't know who my preference is if I can only have one and not both. Probably Tucker. But it's really close. I wouldn't want to make that decision if it was put to me.
Can we add Madison Bumgarner to that list? I seem to remember him taking a 5/35 deal from the Giants before his arbitration was up. Maybe I’m misremembering.
At this point 4 years isn't worth it. It's only 1 extra year but higher AAV of the 3 arb years prevents salary for other players. I am of the opinion that any extension that does not cover at least 2 ( and preferably 3+) FA years is not worth the early salary escalation. So for Latin players who have legitimate, real life reasons to get more money earlier then the team can wait a bit and make sure they are viable before extending them. But Most U.S. players the team must try to lock them up before they have proven themselves or let them go unless the team philosophy changes.
We paid Garcia $1.2M in 2022 after his rookie season (2021). That wasn't even an arbitration season. That was a Thank You.
So who among the unproven prospects is worthy of an extension while the team still can do one? McCormick? Meyers? Pena? Lee? Hensley? Matijevic? Joe Perez? Barber? Yainer Diaz? Gilbert? It's interesting considering the bust/boom/injury factors vs the idea that a Player like Pena could be manning SS for 8-10 yrs at an AAV of $15M or less and what $$ That frees up. And If the team was able to hit on enough of those deals maybe they take a chance on Tucker at 10 yrs when he hits FA. Because the roster in general has the flexibility.
McCormick? yes Meyers? yes, pending physical Pena? yes Lee? A tiny one Hensley? A tiny one Matijevic? No, unless Astros really thinks he's hot stuff...then a tiny one Joe Perez? No, unless Astros really thinks he's hot stuff...then a tiny one Barber? No, unless Astros really thinks he's hot stuff...then a tiny one Yainer Diaz? Yes Gilbert? Not until he's ready to be called up, but yes Contingent on players willing to sign team friendly extension.
Hunter Brown would be the only obvious candidate. Korey Lee, Pedro Leon, or Yainer Diaz make sense if the Astros have far more confidence in them than we all think. I still think the biggest extension candidates are Javier and Abreu.
Absolutely 100% correct on the takeaway I believe. I can't imagine anyone saying that stuff out loud, but I also can't imagine it not being a thing orgs look at and/or keep in mind.
Those guys are #1 (Javier), 2 (Abreu) and 3 (Brown) of my list of Astros I'd want to extend. Especially if I want to make a starting pitcher out of Abreu. 8/150 for Abreu would be my max- that is basically what he'd make in arbitration plus a cost of living increase on what Joe Musgrove just signed for. That's fair. If he becomes the guy I think he will be that's a criminal steal. I'd probably start with- how about 5/65 though. Abreu- 5-40. Then convert him to a starter and watch him dominate and I have maybe the best contract in all of baseball. Brown- 10/100. I have a lot of faith in him. He hasn't made any money yet in his career. I'd absolutely make him turn down life changing money from me. If he does that would have to be hugely motivating you would think. I don't see how you can pay any of those 3 guys Lee/Leon or diaz. You have a I guess I'd maybe offer them all 8/40 or something like that with a buyout of 5M or something like that for the Astros after year 5 of the contract. Call it 15M guaranteed over that first 5 years. I don't know if any of them would have the slightest interest in taking that deal- but I also don't know that I have the slightest interest in extending them a contract.
Today? I'd offer Chas 5/40. I'd offer Jake 5/30. I'd offer Pena 10/100. I wouldn't even dream of calling any of the other guys agents to say anything other than- hope your client comes in and kills it and when they do we will have a serious discussion after year 1 in the majors.
I agree with what you say. But I actually think Pena is a great candidate. He has proven enough to be reasonably sure he won't he a bust. Also he wasn't a high bonus signing and his dad didn't make life changing money in MLB. He's also older and won't hit FA until 30 which reduces his prospects. Correa made $24.7M his 3 arb seasons. Let's make that $27.5M for Pena. Feels reasonable due to market increase. 2 seasons at min = $1.5M. It's still early enough in his career that his stardom 5 years from now is a gamble so he may sign for $20M over the FA years. That's $100M for 5 yrs. $10/ $129M. He costs $12.9M per season through his age 34 year. Now if they wait 2 years until arb starts, he probably want $25M per FA season because he is more established and closer to his payday. The team gets him for 8 / $152.5M. The team gets the benefit of 2 seasons at min but has to commit $25M more for the same time and deal with AAV of $19.06M And his FA yrs 2028-2032 $20M salary and $12.9M AAV will probably be half of what a good SS will cost I. FA.
I'd offer him 5/$100M, hoping a big upfront for 2023 would incentivize him to give up 2 FA years, but it is hard to pass up on hitting FA before 30 when that could mean a 10 year deal.
I think both 5yrs and $100M are light. I think he would only consider $45M+ per FA ( and likely more) to give up his 2 most valuable FA seasons. If you figure $30M for arb yrs thats 5 / $120 and I think that's the absolute minimum he would consider. How much does hitting FA at 31 instead of 29 cost him? I would bet he either wants to be a FA at 29 or sign an extension that runs through his prime - likely 33 or 34. So only paying thru age 33 he would want at least $35M per for FA yrs which is 8 / $205.
In my mind, I'm thinking he's going to get $5.6M, $11M, $22M in the 3 years of arbitration, if everything goes well. That's paying him about $30M for each arbitration year, but he gets paid sooner and its guaranteed. You could structure the last year to be an option,
