I don't think it is based on mid season rankings. Brown's is messed up because the Astros use a tandem system in the minors (projections basically all agree that he's a hell of a pitcher, but don't know if he'll start or relieve). Javier's appears to be a FIP-based assessment. Abreu's is probably getting heavily regressed because he sucked in 2021. Abreu's is the only one that surprised me. I expect Brown's value estimate will skyrocket after he's in the rotation for 5-6 straight turns. Javier's....I don't think projections based on FIP will ever give Javier credit unless Javier strikes out even more batters.
that is a lot of verbiage to admit the system is skewed heavily to the owners and always has been. No one is “conveniently” forgetting anything any more than anyone is “conveniently” forgetting all the capital gains every owner has made when selling. The fact that there is expenditure on both sides and some players come out ahead does not mean that the books balance. If you disagree, put in numbers, or just drop it. Saying “a few minor leaguers made more money than they put in” does not even come close to making it even across the entire system. If you aren’t “coming down on the side of the players” you are willfully ignorant of the total economics. (and don’t reply with risk/reward crap. There is zero risk in owning a baseball team. If you can afford to buy in, you should. No one has ever lost a dime. But you can only buy in if you are already a billionaire. But, sure, some minor leaguers made a nice “education” while booking $75k)
I wouldn't say that. He is average. Somedays he gets guys out nicely others he craps the bed. Overall he is an average middle reliever many way worse and many way better. On this staff he last year he was one of the top inning eaters out of the bullpen (barely second behind Montero and he did it for barely over a million bucks. I get it you and many others just like to say a player is bad just because they aren't all-stars but Phil Maton was a key player out of the 2022 bullpen and maybe again in 2023. Who knows with middle relievers you can never tell year to year. Some guys have career years and other lose everything. What if one of or "star" relievers that you won't say suxxxx has a terrible year but someone like say Ryan Stanek or Phil Maton or Brandon Bielak have a career season in 2023 not out of the realm of possibility in the least bit.
When it comes to the Winterball Wonder it is. Blanco has never done anything against quality hitters from everything I've read and heard. Phil has struck out a handful of All-star hitters. His post season numbers are small sample size 15 innings but dude was nails. Blanco needs to prove he can get out a guy in the majors before I give him an ounce of respect over Maton.
The 40 man roster is now set at 39. Really only room for a catcher who I expect to be signed before ST. Framber, McCullers, Javier, Urquidy, Garcia, Pressly, Abreu, Montero, Neris are locks. Stanek and Maton will make the opening 26 because they have no options remaining. That leaves 2 pitcher spots for ( in order of likeliness IMO) Brown, Martinez, Paredes, Taylor, Mushinski, Dubin, France, Blanco, Bielak. Maldy and 1 of new catcher, Korey Lee or Yainer Diaz are catchers. I put likelihood at 70% new catcher, 25% Lee, 5% Diaz. Abreu, Altuve, Alex, Pena, Brantley, Yordan, Tucker, and Chas are locks.Dubon is also a lock due to no options. That leaves 2 roster spots for position players for: (in likelihood order IMO): Hensley, Meyers, Matijevic, Bannon, Y.Diaz, Leon*, Madris, Machado*, Joe Perez. * Leon or Machado would need to be added to 40 man. 1B and CF are the weakest positions which is important to how/why I chose the order of likeliness of the final 2 spots.
I would take a shot on LaStella at league minimum. He will clear waivers and SF will be on the hook for the rest So for him it’s just about finding the best spot. For us there would be almost zero risk. Even if we could turn him somewhat back in the right direction he would be a nice upgrade as a utility
I just don't know where you put him unless he'd agree to a minor league deal. He won't replace a starter or OFer and he's not good at any IF spot. He would be strictly a DH Bench guy and I don't think he replaces C2, Hensley, Dubon or Meyers. Assuming Lee get's C2, then that role would be perfect for Diaz, if you did want to replace Dubon. It actually sounds like a move that the A's or Pirates would and should make.
I dont think Dubon is a lock. I also can see and option where they can trade to make room up top in the Majors. Meyers Maton someone like that. JS. If the word is wright the Astros are still trying to nail down something. And I don't think it's a C. I think Diaz and Lee might aswell get ready to fight it out.
Of course they can trade to make room I completely disagree with you about Dubon. He has no options, the team offered him arbitration when they could have non-tendered him, and they played him like they are/were very happy with him. I have never heard the team say a negative thing about him. I think he is as much of a lock as Stanek and more than Brown.
Maybe just maybe Dubon was flirting with launch angles against the shift and now he can go back to being a singles/sometime doubles hitter. Just throwing something out there to explain the near .200 BA with the Astros. His career numbers say he's nowhere close to a hitter flirting with the Mendoza line. He's essentially a light version of Aledmys. Hopefully he returns to hitting in the .260 area.
Angels with 2 in the top 5 and can’t even sniff the playoffs much less their division… padres with 3 in the top 10, on paper, so good, but October doesn’t care…
I’d do 10 for 250.. guys are looking at 35-40+ mil right now.. in 3 years, that will be what the avg FA gets and ppl in the upper echelon will be getting even more. By the time we are at 5 years, Tucker at 25 mil will be a steal. ….. or he starts to suddenly suck during his prime years and we are stuck with 25 mil a year. Which again, by then, won’t be bad. What’s his floor? Reddick? He made 16 mil at the end.
