I totally understand upgrading the bullpen by giving Maton's spot to someone else. I just don't see ANY scenario where Maton is not on the Astros in 2023. He is too expensive for any non contender to want him. He is not good enough to be a target of a contending team. He may be an improvement for some but not enough to be an impact. And a contending team won't want to give something up for him or help the Astros unload him. He has zero trade value.
Mlbtraderumors.com has an interesting story on Brian Anderson. Interesting buy low candidate that apparently has some skill and can play multiple positions. 3B and RF mostly but 1B, 2B, and LF also. He could be a bargain if he agreed to a minor league deal with an invite and is used as injury/Hensley insurance at Sugar Land. Apparently was predicted to get $5M in last arb. Year but released after noonecwanted him at that price. Should be cheap.
Absolutely the guy with Pena a close second, but not as urgent yet. Every year of arbitration (or in Penas case Arbitration and 2 CC years) not included in a "Long Term" contract reduces the AAV savings. Most argue a core value discontent because the CC years and the Arbitration years are paid at a less than Field Value (Fair Market Value), but they also have paid more than they are worth for their Minor league education which no one seems to be concerned about. But for now, only slight changes are coming with higher minimum salaries and probably a rise in Arbitration awards. But both remain heavily discounted for most young stars.
Except when he doesn't and throws an immaculate inning. • Phil Maton, Astros, June 15, 2022 Seventh inning vs. Rangers: Nathaniel Lowe, Ezequiel Duran, Brad Miller
Could you quantify this? How much do you think the clubs pay “more than they are worth” for minor league “education”, and how does that compare to the gap between club control years and fair market value? I suspect what you will find is that “no one is concerned about it” because it is a rounding error on the advantage clubs receive during club control years. The contract is the contract and it was all collectively bargained, but let’s not make up some irrelevant benefit to pretend the ledger is balanced for players like Tucker. He and young players like him take less than they are worth now to benefit older stars (as he hopes to become) who have guaranteed contracts and no hard cap - that’s the model. There is no magical “minor league education” that offsets it.
Long term deals by the Astros have generally been limited to players coming off MVP level seasons. Altuve - 7 years, $163.5M, 3/19/18, ALMVP in 2017. Bregman - 5 Years, $100M, 3/22/19, 5th in MVP in 2018. Alvarez - 6 Years, $115M, 6/3/22, In middle of 3rd in MVP in 2022. McCullers is the outlier. Other deals are 3 years or less.
Schools are not generally free. Individually, most star players have been PAID a significant signing bonus rather than charged on. Their value in the Minors is almost always less than what they are paid. And that doesn't include most players who do not even get out of the minors. Those who always come down on the side of players NEVER being paid what they are worth always conveniently forget the investment of the owners. It has been a good deal for them and that is an indication the balance is still in the favor of owners. But those values can, and will change if MLB ever loses it's anti-trust exemption.
Just a project converting Baseball Trade Values Field Value estimates to AAV field values. AGE(23) FIRST LAST Field Value AAV 26 KYLE TUCKER $36,900,000 26 YORDAN ALVAREZ $32,933,333 33 JOSE ALTUVE $31,300,000 29 ALEX BREGMAN $27,100,000 25 JEREMY PENA $20,720,000 37 JOSE ABREU $17,433,333 28 CHAS MCCORMICK $12,600,000 36 MICHAEL BRANTLEY $8,400,000 27 DAVID HENSLEY $2,166,667 27 JAKE MEYERS $1,760,000 28 MAURICIO DUBON $350,000 27 BLIGH MADRIS $150,000 36 MARTIN MALDENADO 29 FRAMBER VALDEZ $34,633,333 26 CRISTIAN JAVIER $23,566,667 26 LUIS GARCIA $18,025,000 34 RYAN PRESSLY $12,600,000 29 LANCE MCCULLERS, JR $10,850,000 24 HUNTER BROWN $9,750,000 32 RAFAEL MONTERO $9,233,333 34 HECTOR NERIS $5,500,000 28 JOSE URQUIDY $4,966,667 31 RYNE STANEK $4,800,000 26 BRYAN ABREU $4,675,000 30 PHIL MATON 28 SETH MARTINEZ Note Not all players have a field value estimate and even those that do appear older and not reflective of recent trends.
So yeah, anybody that's still dreaming about that possible Tucker extension, the Devers contract pretty much showed you don't even have to be an elite player anymore to earn a titanic deal. The most important thing is age, so if you hit free agency young and healthy you are gonna bank. Unless the Astros offer him 50 million there's no reason to even consider giving up even one precious prime season. If he had hit free agency this season Tucker would have earned 300 million pretty easily. He will be 2 years older than Devers when he does hit FA, so its not an apples to apples comparison, but he is a better player. If Devers can get 11/330, no reason to think Tucker wouldn't get 10/300 or close to it.
Bryan Abreu, Javier, and Brown are their Field Value estimates that seem way low to me. Abreu should probably be valued between Pressly and Montero. I'd have Javier a lot closer to Framber than Garcia. I'd have Brown rated closely to Garcia.
He was 114th among relievers in ERA last season (not always the best measure of a reliever, but other stats support his ERA). In other words, on average most teams have 3-4 relievers better than him. Maton is the 7th or 8th reliever for the Astros. I'm fine with him as the worst reliever on the Astros if he doesn't improve. Though, I expect he's going to have a hard time keeping a spot in the pen if he doesn't improve as I think the Astros have some interesting reliever options in AAA (Paredes, Dubin, France, Whitley) Some team will likely be willing to give up a lottery ticket for him if the Astros need to get rid of him.
Seeing how well having what felt like infinite starting pitching depth and a consistent 6 man rotation worked last season, I would love it if we signed a guy like Wacha for long relief/spot start/fill in for injury starts.
I agree Maton is a perfectly good bottom of the bullpen option for the Astros. He gets a really bad rap compared to the other Astros RP arms but he is likely 3rd or 4th best RP on most teams. It's been 15 years since the Astros have used less than 22 pitchers in a season. That's opening day staff + at least 9 others. Maton has value. He's just not a high leverage guy.
That is reasonable. It appears the last Field Valuations came near mid season for most players. All you mentioned had outstanding second halves.
