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Chapter 4: The Green Revolution

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Mathloom, Oct 16, 2022.

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How many wins will Jalen lead us to?

  1. 20-29 wins

    125 vote(s)
    59.5%
  2. 30-39 wins

    61 vote(s)
    29.0%
  3. 40-49 wins

    11 vote(s)
    5.2%
  4. 50-59 wins

    13 vote(s)
    6.2%
  1. tmacfor35

    tmacfor35 Member

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    He is a good player. He just isn't a good 1a Option right now and will never be one until that jumper works itself out.
     
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  2. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    Unless you are going to show standard deviation data this statement here says a lot.

    Like that's why we posted averages of both players between Beal and Green. His bad games are expressed in those averages.


    Stick to liberal arts.
     
  3. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    Agree. But getting a jumper consistent is much easier than becoming a consistently good dribble penetrator who gets calls which Green is already.
     
  4. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    Why do I have to do "standard deviation" - lol, there's 30-something games. I remember them! A ton of them are bad. https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/greenja05/gamelog/2023 - maybe it's not the majority, but there's a LOT of single-digit game scores - that's horrible for a guy with high usage who plays 3 0 min a night.

    And his averages are not very good compared to the actual league he plays in this year..

    Why are so mad that I am sad that he has been disappointing this year.

    Your bradley beal comparison will not cheer me up when there are a million Deni Avidja or Cuttino Mobley comparisons out there.

    Sorry.
     
  5. BigM

    BigM Member

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    I have absolutely no idea what this post means.

    Also Harden was hungry as ****. Sometimes too hungry. Take that however you want.
     
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  6. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    Again, you are making specific claims saying that currently Green is projected to look like someone between Beal and Corey Brewer.

    Both Bradley Beal and Green have both an adjusted ts%(accounting for league average ts%) of 95 for their first two seasons. But Green does it with higher volume and with significantly more of his shots self created rather than assisted as in they are more difficult off the dribble looks. And the difference is rather large. Between their first two seasons the difference is 32% vs 56% that is self created.

    Green is scoring a lot more than Beal on the same adjusted efficiency while also self creating his makes at a significantly higher percentage. So why would he be between someone like Brewer and Beal?
     
  7. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    And like I said. Stick to lib arts.
     
  8. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist

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    Be patient man. That jumper is going to work itself out just fine. We're talking about a guy who's making 33.7% of 7 attempts in his first 2 seasons at age 21. It's not worthy of much concern.

    He's going to the line almost twice as much as he did last season plus a big jump in assists and PnR play. He's taken a huge step towards becoming a star scorer. You can't do everything at once. Seems to be able to get to the line at will now. Defense and 3pters up next. The emergence of playmaking assistance from Tyty and Sengun and improved PG play from KPJ is going to help a lot to diversify the looks he's getting (as you can see in his last 6 or 7 games).

    All in all, I think he's just forcing 1 3pt shot and 1 mid range shot per game, should pass those shots off. The same points and assists on 15 shots would be amazing at this stage of his development. Young guys make big improvements like that, I know he's a sophomore but still he's so damn young man. You can expect significant development.
     
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  9. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    Because most NBA 10+ year vetrans are somewhere between Beal (scoring champ, 3x all star 1x all NBA) and Brewer (0x all star) in terms of their career accomplishiments.

    Hardly a controversial statement, and not one I feel the need to look up.
     
  10. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    He's really not though. He's a net negative due to how terrible his defense is and how inefficient his offense is.

    We see flashes that show he could maybe be good if he figures it out, but right now he's a big part of why this team keeps losing games.
     
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  11. CantStopJG24

    CantStopJG24 Member

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    I worry about his mindset at times on whether he can be that guy. We can blame Silas and KPJ for his lack of shots in the 4th and that's valid but sometimes you gotta make things happen on your own. I've seen it more from Jabari who barely has any offensive game. He'll grab the rebound and shoot a pull up or shoot the ball as soon as he catches. Jalen will dribble for 5-6 seconds and get cut off and just pass it to KPJ or EG.
     
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  12. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    So you want him to take more pull up js without any offense initiated?


    Jabari is a victim of not seeing the ball much and therefore when he has the rare opportunity to being the ball up he's going to shoot because he knows he probably won't get another look.

    Also that is supposed to be Jabari's offensive strength. Pull up js over defenders without needing to create seperation. Green has to create seperation for his jumper.
     
  13. BigM

    BigM Member

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    We’re going for the worst team in the league 3peat, it’s hard to make an argument that any player on this team is currently good. Jalen Green isn’t a good player right now.

    That said, Jalen is better at the same period of his career than all the guys he was comped to coming out of the draft. That’s something. If you tell me he’s the next Zach Levine and then he out plays 20 year old Zach Levine how disappointed should I be? Maybe I need to be more realistic.

    His jumpshot is keeping him from being consistent. When he dials that in he’ll make the next step.
     
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  14. CantStopJG24

    CantStopJG24 Member

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    I rather lose games with Jalen trying to create his offense over Eric Gordon trying to create his offense. I just want him to be more aggressive. I need third quarter Jalen to be 4th quarter Jalen.
     
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  15. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    I mean a lot of that has to do with rotations. Silas will play Green nearly the entire third and then bring him back in with 4 minutes left in the game essentially icing him out.
     
  16. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist

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    It's good to know that for Jalen Green aged 20, this recent streak of games can be considered underperforming and lacking competitiveness:

    20 points on 17 shots
    16 on 12 shots
    23 on 15 shots
    28 on 22 shots
    24 on 15 shots
    23 on 17 shots
    21 on 17 shots

    Open your eyes guys. Sengun, Jabari and Green are 19-20 yrs old. They are doing well for their age/experience. Go look around the league at what obstacles other 20 year olds are dealing with if you want to look for only negatives. Anthony Edwards live streamed a homophobic slur and was publicly beefing with KAT. Jaden Ivey is way underprepared for the NBA. Kuminga, Wiseman and Moody can't get into a rotation that needs depth. Chet Holmgren is way too thin for the NBA. Joshua Primo showed his **** to a therapist. Paolo Banchero can't guard a chair. Evan Mobley can't hit a 3. Scottie Barnes has regressed. Cade Cunningham might be too slow for the PG position. **** happens when you're 19-20 years old. There are ups and downs.

    Do you really understand what it means for these guys to be this age? Can you see their performance within the actual context of what's going on? Jalen Green is outperforming Devin Booker, Bradley Beal and Zach Lavine at the same age and we can't stop hearing non-sense about everything he's never ever going to be.

    Star scorer being born in front of your eyes and you can't appreciate it because it's not fully formed yet.
     
  17. tmacfor35

    tmacfor35 Member

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    Oh I 100% agree.
     
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  18. tmacfor35

    tmacfor35 Member

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    Remember how bad Trevor Ariza was as the Rockets first option that one season? Remember how good he was for us in 2018? Same circumstance here, and obviously Jalen has all the ability in the world to be so much more than he even is now. Roles dictate how good you ultimately are. That is why I mentioned not a 1a type of guy yet. I think that holds true until the shooting gets fixed. Once he can become more consistent shooting the ball, then you will start seeing the guy we hoped for.
     
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  19. larsv8

    larsv8 Member

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    Jalen Greens biggest strength is getting to the line.

    Doing some maths, if Jalen Green stopped taking threes his TS% would rise by 2% to 55.3%

    From there, if he just got one additional trip to the line, and hit both free throws, it jump to 59%.

    Certainly has a path forward.
     
  20. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    Yup. There always is an avenue for an efficient scorer if their base is a good dribble penetrator who finishes well and draws contact.

    The only exception is someone like Westbrook but even though he could penetrate well and get foul calls he wasn't a good finisher at the rim. Green has a much higher fg% in the restricted area than Westbrook during their first two years. Westbrook kinda goes full speed at the rim and just throws up a lay up with no touch. He doesn't really have a soft touch around the rim. We've seen Green find creative sof touches around the rim even going to the rim at full speed. That requires a lot of body control.
     

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