KPJ: Can someone explain to me why he has become Clutchfans favorite whipping boy?

That's exactly where I stand. If that makes me a hater, so be it. Like I give a fxxk. LOL

 

I think you MISSED the point I was making. I was alluding to Sengun and Jalen and since you mentioned Tyty as well, have been playing their same position since they were in probably middle school. So they know their positions blind folded. With them, it's just a matter if learning the players, role on the team, etc. If you go back and look at Sengun's tape before he got drafted, without looking, I guarantee you he's doing the exact same thing at the same position.

With KPJ, it's still learning the position AND the players. There have been numerous players who have had similar paths as KPJ and went on to win Championships, Chauncey Billups is one. To me he and KPJ have very similar games.

 

Yeah that's a really tough question to answer and that's a big part of why it's hard to be a GM. If you look at it statistically, it would be something like "He has a 75% chance of increasing his TS after year 1, but if its the same in year 2, then it goes down to 40%, then if it's the same in year 3, then it goes down to 10%..." etc. And I'm just making those numbers up, I don't know what they are, but you get the idea. You could do this exact same analysis for games played rather than years in a the league, and it would have it's own likelihoods and range of outcomes attached to it. But at some point you have to just give up on a guy. And sometimes you'll be wrong! We've seen that happen occasionally in the league where a team will give up on a young guy and he will go on to thrive elsewhere. You could maybe put Kyle Lowry in this group, but whether or not I can give a specific example, I think the point is clear.

So yeah, I don't know the exact moment when you should give up on a guy. You also can't just go based solely on the statistics because statistics are averages and individual situations deserve analysis based on the circumstance. So this is just a bunch of words for me to say that I honestly have no idea. I have my best guess based on intuition and me watching every rockets game since he's been on the team. But it's just my surface level fan analysis/opinion, I'm sure GMs have a much more thorough process to determine this stuff. But I think at this point KPJ seeing improvement to bring him up to being a "star", or even "solid starter" is pretty unlikely. Certainly not impossible, but if I'm trying to pull a percentage out of my ass, it would be in the single digits.

 

Great response. I appreciate the moderate approach.

Late bloomers ARE a thing. Jimmy Butler, Lowry like you said, Siakam, Giannis. I think even John Stockton was a late bloomer. Its hard to paint a rosy future for our guys based on stats so at some point some of us homers have to take a leap of faith. The 'greats' of the sport will reveal themselves early in their careers, but do we need "greats" to be a successful team? I try to envision what we have now in 2-3 seasons and Im not at all turned off. All of these guys we've drafted needed development, and I might even say KPJ needs the most. Going to war among ourselves over what the perceptions were last year or this year still doesnt give a certainty of what chemistry and experience will do for this team as assembled. I think they are all growing together and we will have a luxury of multiple players hitting their prime at the same time and offer a more optimistic long term outlook.

 

I’m certainly not trying to claim that they don’t exist. I feel like I have tried to be pretty clear that I’m talking about likelihood of outcomes. Late bloomers are a lower percentage proposition. Players exhibiting improvements early on in their careers present higher likelihood of positive outcomes. Most of the guys who become guys with the volume and efficiency necessary to be 1st or 2nd options show it early. Outliers always exist.

 

What's funny is for those who are mad at people piling on (or the infamous "bullying") KPJ, did you all forget what the title of the thread is?

"KPJ: Can someone explain to me why he has become Clutchfans favorite whipping boy?"

What do you expect people to say in this thread? That he's the whipping boy because he is such a great player?

If anything, OP solicited more whipping... LOL

 

Ya get what you are saying. We have seen he is capable of long efficient stretches at 20.

 

Giannis wasn't a late bloomer. He got drafted at 19. Then he had the general 3rd/4th year breakouts that many of the stars undergo, where he showed a consistency and a continued upwards trajectory in development at 21/22 years old. That's common in actual stars of the league. And from there he continued to what he is now. That isn't late at all. Siakim had the same 3rd/4th year breakout but he came into the league at 22. You're pretty much either going to either see by the 3rd or 4th year what kind of player someone is. Whether they take a further step into being some kind of star or just being another guy in the nba whether its rotational, bench, or out of it

 

Here's a little info for you, most players who are elite are inefficient; LeBron, Curry and Harden. They are high turnover players.

KPJ is in his 4th yr, Green 2nd yr, same for Sengun but I consider this their 1st yr together. We just have to give them time.

 

Absolutely false.

Players are elite in large part due to being efficient.

You literally just named 3 of the most known efficient in the league and labeled them inefficient. Nonsense

 

Through 4 years Giannis had started 253 games.
Through 4 years Siakam had started 182 games
If Scoot plays out the year he will have started 142 games through his year 4 season. (edit: bad math it would be 169 games started)

My contention is that most players need actual court time to become the best version of themselves. Generational guys are apparent year 2 maybe even as rookies, but that is not the norm.

Im also not claiming that KPJ will be a certain efficient or necessary part of a winning team when he amasses the same game experience, but I feel its still too early to make the claim he wont be based on purely on stats. Im the first guy to say that I WAS expecting more from him this year. When you look at the sum total of everyone whos viewed as the nucleus on this team I think they are all coming along on time and there are things to celebrate when you take into account the entire context of a young team with a middling coach and a GM who may view losing as the best way to win later.

 

Wow. So much wrong in this post. Are you confusing efficiency with turnovers? Since when have those guys you mentioned been considered inefficient?

 

Most players who are elite are inefficient….

Lists probably the most efficient, volume scorer ever in Curry. Another very high efficient scorer who is also one of the best offensive creators ever in Harden. And another very efficient and 1 of the 2-3 best all around players ever in Lebron.

Just when I think the Sengun crazies are by far the most insufferable and out of touch, you get stuff like this.

 

lol. I was so confused at that. I had to read Most players who are elite are inefficient several times

so by that logic, most players who aren't elite are efficient

 

Does a good TS% mask a high turnover rate? What other markers would make a high turnover player efficient?

 

He said the exception for him are players who are ELITE but inefficient. Those are three of the most prominent

 

what he said has nothing to do with what you claimed.

That most players who are elite are inefficient. and you even named 3 players who are some of the most efficient players who have played in the NBA.

 

Well first off Curry and Lebron really have no place in the discussion of high turnover rate players. 13ish% turnover rate for their careers is really good. Even Harden a career 15.5% turnover rate isn’t exactly high(though he did have some pretty bad individual seasons a few times), but it’s not low either.

It’s a trade off. If you are among the league leaders in scoring, doing it very efficiently and also creating efficient offense for others at a really high rate its going to easily make up for a high number of turnovers or turnover rate. And this will almost always be reflected in that players teams offensive efficiency. Curry and Harden especially have been the main driving force for some of the best team offenses ever. Lebron is the all time leader in raw total of turnovers. Harden led the league in raw total turnovers a few times. The combo of volume and efficiency of points scored and points created more than made up for it.

 

Bro what. Lebron Curry and Harden all have elite efficiency.

 

So then for a player like Jalen who shares a 13% TO rate he needs to become a more willing passer as a shoot first option to overcome that? Or is it really as easy as just "shoot better" ?? Im not thrilled with KPJs 18% there so he just needs to turn the ball over less, shoot better near the rim and convert 80+% on free throws? Call me crazy, but it seems doable, while not needing him to be as good as Lebron, Curry or Harden.