The 2 components of an extension are the Arbitration years and the FA years. Tucker's projected arbitration through 3 years is $28M. His Field value (FA Value) is $36.9M. So a fair offer if these components are correct (big if) would be 6-$138.7M. For 5-$101.8M. This is not peanuts for a corner outfielder, even a star. But if you wanted to lock him up through age 35 using the same values, we would be looking at 11-$323.2M. Crane has not tendered that kind of offer before. But those are the numbers using the above estimates. $323.2 35 $286.3 34 $249.4 33 $212.5 32 $175.6 31 $138.7 30 $101.8 29 $64.9 28 [$28.0] [25-27]
LOL. So you are that guy. Why does it matter if we overpaid for Montero what does 500,000 or 1 million mean in the overall sense of things, do we get more championship points if we don't overpay or underpay? The only reason Montero could be considered our #3 reliever is because the other 2 were so great any other team Montero would have been the best reliever and IMO Montero could be considered the best because of the number of innings he was effective. Talk about just looking for something to b**** about.
This free agent market sure makes that Yordan extension look even better. Imagine how much money Wander Franco left on the table in Tampa. Wow.
Not to my knowledge. MLB is concerned that it hasn't even been a year since the CBA was in place and teams are already circumventing luxury taxes. MLB should have had a rule that years 40 (maybe 38 or 39 would be better) and up don't count for AAV purposes.
Will be curious to see how Crane handles Altuve/Bregman (and vice/versa)... the team has all the leverage to consider getting them to sign another 2 or 3 year extension now while both still have some prime years left. They've basically done the same with Alvarez in terms of 'extending' his arb years and they could also approach him with another extension deal in 3-4 years time. There's also the possibility that Crane just tells them all to play it out and they start over.
It's going to be more frequent to sign your top ranked prospect immediately in their 1st/2nd year like what Mariners did. Smart of them.
The reason there are 8 and 10+ year deals is to circumvent the tax. It's based on average salary. Teams are backloading deals to lower the tax number. There will be a reckoning down the road like NFL teams having dead cap space. Correa will eventually be a 10 million player counting 28 against the tax figure.
It’s is a cap for the Astros.Astros have been very careful not to go over and if they have, quickly adjusted.2020 they went over when penalties were suspended.
The point is: 350 over 13 = 26.9 / year 310 over 10 = 31 / year 4 million in savings every year could mean 2-4 million in tax savings every year if they intend to spend into the tax.
Altuve has already twice chosen safety over maximizing income and has done more than enough winning for his career. Unless Crane decides the Astros are going into super tear down mode (which I don't forsee) I have trouble seeing a scenario in which Altuve isn't an Astro, they'll work something out for a least a few more years. His clear prime years will be spent when he's a free agent. Bregman I could certainly see wanting to cash in. He has prime years left and should still command a massive deal. The way the market is going, at age 30 I could easily see him commanding close to 200 million or more, and I don't think he will take another short term deal at that age unless he has some performance drop off.
Oh, I don’t expect either to take a discount. Just that the Astros have exclusive negotiating rights this year and next year, which could entice both of them to be more receptive to talks. Bregman’s got injury and performance decline (due to injury) history… they’d have to consider offering a 5-6 year extension to get his attention.
And by then, $28MM might be a fairly routine contract if the top players are getting $40-$50MM/yr by then. I mean, who'd have imagined 10 years ago that a DFA'ed guy would get $17MM/yr to hope he improves, or a guy coming off missing a year+ due to shoulder problems would be looking for $25MM/yr.
The team has no "leverage" when it comes to Bregman. He'll be 30 yrs old when he hits FA. He already took the secure route by accepting the teams offer of buying up his arb yrs for a couple of FA years. He'll now want to get paid major $$ like he's seeing all these other dudes are getting. If he has two more strong yrs I can't imagine what type of offers he's going to receive but they're going to be extremely hefty. Bregman has all the leverage.
A super long term deal is basically a bet on contract inflation making the contract look small in future years. Not a bad bet, based on how revenue is trending and with inflation raging broadly across most sectors.
