He is in the 30-80 range on most of the lists that were updated at the end of the season and I wouldn't expect there to be a huge difference between those lists and the ones that come out in the spring. But I don't see a huge difference between the 50th guy and the 90th guy. The top 20 of those lists is where the surefire stars usually fall. Either way, despite the general opinion on this message board, he is not viewed as an elite prospect by any major publication (not that their opinion is the final word). Generally, I think he is about as highly regarded as McCullers was as a prospect, even taking into account Brown's rapid ascent in 2022.
I doubt he will be in Top 10 because that would be a huge jump and prospect rankings can be slow to adapt. He should be in Top 25.
The short answer? Most organizations don't value wRC+ when evaluating minor leaguers. ZIPS and a lot of the other prognosticators really are not held in esteem. They will look at things that ALREADY happened (stats from last year) and use them to see WHY something happened and whether patterns that emerged are repeatable, but that aren't going to roll with wRC+ . Even the Astros nerd cave, ultimately would have guys in player development look at certain guys to see if the eye is consistent with the numbers.
As for Hunter Brown, I like him and think he will be a big league pitcher and likely a good one, but I don't see any real dominance or dominant stuff.
Just wondering, who was the highest ranked prospect we have had recently? Correa? It feels like national media is always lower on our guys than we are, and we also do a great job at developing which is why they are outperforming their rankings. But have we had anyone that national media also had up high? Maybe Tucker as well?
Correa was the #1 prospect in baseball at one point. I believe Bregman was in the top 5. Whitley was the #1 ranked pitcher and in the top 10. Tucker I think was in the top 10 at one point. Martes was in the top 20 at one point. Unless I'm forgetting somebody I don't think the Astros have any other prospects ranked in the MLB top 20. They've had tons of guys in the 20-60 range over the last 10 years.
I get the fastball gets by more on speed than on shape (though it performed well in short MLB stint), but not sure what more you would want from a curve for it to be dominant stuff.
Said it before, but the guys who populate the prospect lists are usually the ones who were high round picks/big bonus IFAs and performed well in their early minor league career/ The Stros used to have a bunch of top top prospects like Correa, Bregman, Tucker, Whitley (all top 15 overall picks) back when they routinely drafted at the top of the round. Since competitive window opened ('15 onward) they haven't been at the top of the draft regularly and just have less of those types of players that prospectors put on lists.
Was looking over fangraphs this morning. He's a weird combination of high floor (over 100 innings of ~2.5 ERA in AAA) and a big ceiling thanks to his stuff. I do think theres legitimate concern for his command holding him back. Overall, it looks like Fangraphs buys in quicker to college arms with good command whose stuff ticked up in pro ball than they do arms with big stuff but command issues. The Astros 2022 draft seemed focus on this sort of pitcher a little bit more. Colton Gordon might fit that profile as well.
I look at Framber's career to see how much control affects a GB pitcher that can get a decent amount of Ks. I expect Brown will get more Ks, but less GBs than Framber. Framber Year BB/9 ERA- 2019 5.60 130 2020 2.04 64 2021 3.88 94 2022 3.00 78 If Brown can keep his BB/9 just under 4, I'd expect Brown to be about as good as Framber was in 2021. Maybe a little better as Ks are slightly more valuable than GBs. Brown's ability to get groundballs with that curve and cutter gives him a lot more cushion for wildness than mist Astros pitching prospects.
I think I was less impressed overall with his ability to generate whiffs and more impressed with his ability to generate weak contact.
I would say I was a less impressed with the whiffs until I noticed batters weren't swinging at curves in the dirt. By not swinging at curves in the dirt, they aren't swinging at fastballs in the bottom 3rd of the zone either. Brown gets a ton of called strikes on 4S fastballs in the lower third of the zone.
Commercial rankings are subjective. Carlos Correa was the clear-cut number one prospect for awhile, and I want to say that included an off season. Alex Bregman was the #1 prospect for a short period of time after he got off to a hot start before being called up. Forest Whitley was as high at #4 in some publications and was the #1 pitcher over another pitcher named Kopech. Whitley would have sky-rocketed to #1 if he would have had a quick start to the season. Kyle Tucker was a top 10 prospect. AJ Reed was actually as high as the low teens at one point, which is EXTREMELY high for a 1st baseman/DH. People forget that he looked like a future Todd Helton type hitter. Mark Appel was in the 30's.... Yordan Alvarez was like Hunter Brown, his success was faster than the publications could keep up with. Frances Martes was also in the high teens as a prospect. Vincent Vazquez was a top 100 prospect. Derek Fisher was a top 100 as well. Brett Phillips was a top 50 prospect. McCullers and Michael Feliz were top 100 guys. David Paulino, Franklin Perez, Jeremy Pena all were top 100. Josh James and Jose Urquidy made a couple of lists.... same with Luis Garcia.
Reading these names, clearly these publications knew the future of baseball !! ( tongue firmly in cheek)
Lance McCullers has a really good single pitch as well. I think he is a similar prospect as McCullers FWIW. I have some concern with his control at the big-league level and I think they will hit his fastball better if he is a starter. I think he is a top 25 prospect in the game, but I don't think that he is as talented as some of the other pitchers I have seen come through the Astros system. I think Garcia, Martes, Javier and Abreu have better pure stuff.