Yankees minor leaguer Andres Chaparro is projected to have a 120 wRC+ in 2023 but went unclaimed. Why is that? I’m also surprised Julks make it through. He’s projected to hit 2.4 WAR across a full season per Steamer 600. Of note that Quincy Hamilton is projected to hit 2.3 WAR by that same system, and I’ve read other good things about him as well.
Hamilton impressed me in the second half. Obviously, he is not eligible until either next year (or even the year after), and thus was not protected. He struggled in his cup of coffee at AA, but he should start there and hopefully do better. I hope to see him end the season in AAA. Quincy Hamilton also went to the same college as Joe Smith and trade target Sean Murphy, Wright State University in Ohio. Useless fact, but I felt like saying it.
I've said it before, but Steamer projections for minor leaguers is messed up right now with all the ball changes in the majors and AAA. Also, he is kind of in the Tyler White class of fit which likely throws a lot of shade on defensive projections.
Maybe it’s just my mood this morning, but I laughed a little too hard at that last sentences I will be using “useless fact but I felt like saying it” quite often in my day to day from now on (mine are usually about some other movie that one actor is also in)… thank you.
Perhaps this is the place to ask this question. Is there a ranking of Prospects by their tools? Two Astros prospects intrigue me specifically. One is Leon's 80 Arm and the other is Cerny's 70 Run (with 60 Field). How rare are 80 grades vs 75 or 70 tool grades?
80 grades from legit sources are fairly rare; orgs might go years without having a prospect with an 80 grade tool. 70-75 are less rare but still elite; my guess is most orgs have a few prospects each year who have a 70-75 grade tool.
https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-in-season-prospect-list/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0 The Fangraphs prospect board is sortable by tools. As Snake said 80 grades are uncommon. You can sort by tool to get a general sense of how rare/common the the different grades are. That being said, some 80 grades are more common than others. If you look on FG's prospect board, 9 position prospects have an 80 speed grade (present and future value), 7 have 80 raw power FV, only 1 has 80 grade game power FV, and 0 have 80 hit tools (PV or FV). On the pitching side, only 4 pitching prospects have 80 grade FV on their FB. Only 2 have an 80 grade present value on their FB. Only 2 have 80 future value grades on their change-up. Zero prospects have 80 grades on their slider or curveball.
Assuming throw Grade equates to Arm Grade, Leon only has a 70 Throw rating in Fangraphs. I was using MLBs 30 top Prospects grades.
For some perspective on how difficult it is to project baseball prospects, here is a break down of the prospect path of each of Houston's homegrown players on the projected 2023 roster: 3B Alex Bregman: 2nd overall pick; MLB Top 10 prospect both years in the minors; struggled briefly in the majors but was established by his 2nd year RF Kyle Tucker: 5th overall pick; MLB Top 25 prospect each year in the minors; didn't break out until his 4th year in the majors 2B Jose Altuve: non-bonus int'l signee; slow riser thru the minors but was never a Top 100 prospect; didn't truly break out until his 4th year in the majors SS Jeremy Pena: 3rd round pick; fast riser interrupted by injury pandemic but was only a fringe Top 100 prospect when he debuted in the majors; great rookie year DH Yordan Alvarez: big-bonus int'l signee stolen from Dodgers; fast riser thru the minors and was a Top 100 prospect when he debuted; had immediate success in the majors OF Chas McCormick: non-bonus late round draft pick; slow riser thru the minors who was never considered even an org top 10 prospect; had immediate success and has been steady in his 2 years so far. OF Jake Meyers: mid-round pick; slow riser thru the minors who was never considered even an org top 10 prospect; had immediate success in the minors but was derailed by injury. IF David Hensley: non-bonus late round draft pick; slow riser thru the minors who was never considered even an org top 10 prospect; looked good in limited action as a rookie. C Korey Lee: 1st round pick; steady riser thru the minors who was an org Top 5 prospect and fringe Top 100 prospect; didn't have a very encouraging MLB debut. SP Framber Valdez: non-bonus old in'tl signee; steady but odd rise thru the minors and was never an Org top 10 prospect; didn't break out until his 3rd year in the majors. SP Cristian Javier: non-bonus int'l signee; steady riser thru the minors but was never an Org Top 10 prospect; had immediate success as a RP but didn't really break out until he was allowed to start consistently in his 3rd season. SP Luis Garcia: non-bonus int'l signee; steady riser thru the minors but was never an Org Top 10 prospect; pretty much had immediate success SP Jose Urquidy: non-bonus int'l signee; steady but odd rise thru the minors and was never an Org Top 10 prospect; SP Lance McCullers: 1st round pick; steady riser and back-end top 100 prospect; solid performance out of the gate but career marred by injuries SP Hunter Brown: 5th round pick; relatively quick ascent and is currently a back end top 100 prospect; very good but small sample MLB debut. RP Bryan Abreu: non-bonus old in'tl signee; steady but odd rise thru the minors and was never an Org top 10 prospect; didn't break out until his 4th year in the majors. RP Seth Martinez: non prospect who was picked up in the minor league phase of the Rule 5.
Thank you for putting so much work and effort into your posts. I genuinely enjoy reading your knowledgeable posts.
Hunter Brown's curve was rated as 60/70. Small sample size, but his curve may give Valdez and Urias a run for best curve in the game if he locates like he did last year.
On FanGraphs, he got as high as 6th in the Org Chart. I'd say he broke out in 2020 (great year starting and was a dominant force in the postseason when the Astros had the lead), regressed in 2021, and was dominant in 2022.
Man, reading all that is kinda depressing. Our “untouchable” guys barely crack top 100. I’m as high on our guys as the next guy, but some of this unwillingness to trade at all is funny when pretty much any of the 30 teams can slide in with a better package than our #1 haha.
That's more of an indictment of those who make the top 100 lists. Jeremy Pena was barely a top 100 prospect....should we have traded him away?
Yea I understand that too. And as I have said before, I know nothing and was down to trade Whitley and Tucker in 2017 for pitching. But we got verlander without them so yay. I trust our decision makers. Just kind of jarring to see our guys so low, gonna be hard to keep up in the future.
I think it's positive to see how many REALLY good guys we've ended up with that our scouts and talent evaluators keyed in on that were viewed as low tier prospects. Now can we keep up that winning streak? Probably not, but that's how you win championships, finding value where others fail to see it. Hunter Brown may be considered a low end top 100 prospect now, but I think after a year of him starting in the MLB, those same people will have a MUCH different opinion about him.
I'm going out on a limb, but I think Brown will not be a low end Top 100 prospect when the lists come out prior to the season.
Yeah, I doubt he's going to be making top 10 lists, but I'd guess he ends up in the 25-75 range of most lists this offseason.
