[Official] Astros Off Season

Why are we using Verlander as the benchmark?

He does not have to be Verlander to be more valuable than a catcher.

So what he did when called up makes you think he will bust?

He has already surpassed what Whitley has done, so that's just crazy talk.

 

Do you think those offers will wrap up soon or could they drag out?

 

Varsho plays a little catcher which is cool and all, but his offense hasn't been any better than Chaz. I'm not paying the premium because he can double as a backup catcher, and his CF resume isn't long enough to buy his defensive metrics (which Chaz has as well)

If McCarthy is in fact more attainable that would be great. As a lefty he would make an awesome platoon partner with Chaz. It wouldn't be sexy, but unless one of them has a massive falloff it would give us a huge jump in production from CF. There aren't any CF targets that are worthy of a top flight package IMO.

I haven't given up on Meyers either, he could still be a long term answer in CF. People are holding the Click nonsense against him and completely ignoring how solid he looked before he got hurt in 21. I want Dubon off the roster because he should never see the outfield unless it's an emergency and Dusty will insist on giving him starts out there.

 

Accompanying my wife to the Grocery store today. If you are confused about exorbitant prices in the free agent market a trip to the store will serve as a reminder that dollars have lost a lot of value in the last couple of years. I put it at about 30-35% and still losing ground. Knock about 35% off the dollars in any transaction to see the actual value being exchanged, and try not to think about those dollars you put away for your retirement.

 

Varsho and Thomas look too expensive and Meyers may end up being more productive than McCarthy. I would prefer Gallo if they are going to roll the dice on someone.

 

Ok and what does this have to do with anything I have said?

He has higher upside value and this team can afford to see if he can reach that upside, you guys are acting like we did not just win the WS and like we are chasing other teams and need to upgrade wherever we can.

What does projected fWar have to do with anything and what if he way outperforms those projections?

The fact that you think he is still an unproven pitching prospect after what he did last year and the history of what these coaches have done is mind-boggling.

Look no further than Abreu.

You guys are outsmarting yourselves.

 

Is it? Is your mind boggled? Like, I bet your mind is totally boggled.

 

LOL so he was not even his projections correctly.

Like they say you can make stats say anything.

@Snake Diggit?

 

I hate the idea of a guy who strikes out 40% of the time hitting in the Astros everyday lineup, but seeing Gallo (making less than $10M) crank a monster HR off of DeGrom (who Gallos former term just massively overpaid) sure would be sweet.

 

Gallo is not Astros worthy. Don't want a player that averages 200+ strikeouts over 162 games and has like one sacrifice fly in his big-league history.

 

I think the Bennintendi one will likely wrap up soon.

The Conforto one could possibly drag out longer as Boras hopes that someone that misses out on the other free agents gives in and gives that second year full player option.

I could be wrong, but if I had to guess, Bennintendi isn't going to get close to 100 million. He is coming off a bad injury, is not really a centerfielder, doesn't hit for power, doesn't steal bases and has been very inconsistent through out his career. He could easily be a 4th outfielder in a year or two.

Conforto has a lot of upside, and it only takes a couple teams to decide that they think he will bounce back from injury and be an all star corner outfielder.

 

Hammate is not a bad injury.

 

Yeah, that is the concern.

I think it comes down to how strongly the Astros feel about someone like Alek Thomas. The Astros tried to trade for him last year a couple of times. Someone (was it Click?) strongly believed in him as a very good player. IF the Astros are convinced that he will be a really good player, then make a trade for him because he is under team control for years. The Astros need to identify these types of players and trade for them. It is a MASSIVE win for the Astros, getting production under team control.

I don't know who wanted Thomas with the Astros though. It could have been Click for all I know.

As for Gallo. He is a good fielder, he can right now play all outfield spots and third and 1st.... yeah he strikes out a lot, but he does draw walks and hit homers as well... if he is a decent cost, then I would go at him hard. However, I suspect he wants to go where he gets 500 at bats so he can bounce back and go after a larger contract.

I think Conforto is the best fit for this season. He is a mediocre corner outfielder, but if he is healthy, he is going to hit 25-35 homers with an OPS+ of 120-145.... that is a really dangerous #7 hitter for the Astros.

 

So it seems like it will either be Benintendi on a non-crazy offer, Conforto on a 1 year deal or maybe 2 years guaranteed/team option, or a cheaper 1 year deal to a replacement level player or a trade.

On Benintendi - is he just looking for the most money, or is there genuine interest in the Astros/another contender for less? Appreciate the insights you’ve shared.

 

It can be. Players are able to play on it, but it completely saps extra base power for most hitters.

 

I believe that applies more for those who simply rest and try to recover from it. He had surgery which should fix the issue.

 

It is more than you think. A few months away and about a year of sub par results in the players I follow that have gone through it. Often when they get back to normal it is seen as a miraculous upturn in their numbers because they have not been seen as injured in so long that their injury has long been discounted.

 

I think it’s important to compartmentalize that our needs—C (backup or other), and outfielder—are not immediate needs. Even if we do nothing else this off-season (I.e, proceed w/ Maldy/Lee+Diaz, and smorgasbord of internal options in OF/Util), we still profile as a highly competitive team. I say that to say not that we don’t need to do anything, but that we have the luxury of going into the season to see how it goes. It’s not crazy to think that some of our cheaper, internal options, excel with additional playing time. We have time to survey the trade market and don’t *need* to make moves, especially with the expanded playoff format. Anyways, just a thought. It’s not the sexiest take, but we have a damn good team and don’t need to be at the mercy of the markets. If Jake can regain his pre-injury form, if Hensley and other internal options are good players…we will be fine.

I mean, look back to those clamoring for Grandal. Now CWS can’t unload him without adding pieces or swallowing a part of his contract. Crane is playing this perfectly—we have money to spend, but that’s not a reason to pay more than we objectively should.

 

Again, depends on decision for conservative management or surgery. More inconsistencies in the former.

 

I would say the projection he used basically said Hunter Brown would be a very dominating pitcher (49th in ERA), but would utilized as a low leverage reliever and part-time starter (i.e., not put in situations to affect wins much). I disagree with how the projection says Brown will be used (i.e., I don't think he will be in the pen for 2/3s of the year). How Brown will be utilized greatly affects how much he will produce.

Viewing Brown as someone that will mostly start should multiply his value by a significant amount over how Steamer, FGDC expect him to be used(2-3 times).