A .350 OBP and 115 OPS+ isn't mediocre for any position. It's amazing from a catcher, but even as a DH/LF/1B it's still comfortably above average. And there's reason to think/hope those numbers will be even better not catching full time.
Yainer would be playable at 1B and DH. Lee would not. But I assume the Astros may value Lee's defensive catching skills a lot more?
Last year Contreras had an OPS+ of 128... which is 28% above average. Further, he has said that catching everyday has hurt his bat, he has asked to still catch but DH or play 1st some.... and his stats bear that out. His career first half OPS is 840 with an OPS+ of 135, which is 35% above an average hitter. Also, last year his bat was a lot better than his numbers show because his babip was only 270 and for his career it is like 300-310, so he had relatively bad luck, so his OPS should have been even higher. He also has a lot of power, hits both lefties and righties and for his career hits well with RISP. He isn't a superstar with the bat, but he is pretty damn good. His bat last year was similar quality to Abreu and Tucker and not far off of Bregman.
Yes. The difference between Maldy and Contreras is you get position flexibility so you don't need it from the backup. That's what I'm calling complimentary skills.
I like this for two reasons. He's a Mets FA, even though he was a rental. And he plays the role of Odorizzi as an innings eater at the bottom of the rotation with upside potential. Urquidy can also play that role. But I want that 7th starter for a 6 pitcher rotation. If they are all healthy, I want us to experiment with Garcia as a leverage reliever. But this is definitely based from a fan perspective and not an insider or coaches perspective.
Still not a fan of the idea of Contreras playing a lot of LF. I think getting Murphy cheap for 3 years and signing a guy like Kluber on a "bridge deal" (and maybe even rolling the dice on Bellinger for one year) is better in the long run. Bregman and Altuve will be FA soon, and guys like Pena will be eligible for extensions as well.
I like reading your posts Nook. You provide information we would not otherwise have and I appreciate that. This is the first time I think I have seen you frustrated at the Astros. I certainly don't blame you. Diarrhea of the mouth and nothing to show for it by the winter meeting contingent. Sounds like there are too many opinions there locking Crane's brain up. Personally I think he should just buck up and bring Lunhow back. Astros are already hated so screw em all and bring him back. Paint a giant middle finger on minute maid's roof and lets keep this dynasty rolling.
Yeah, the Astros offense is going to be better barring a major injury by just adding Abreu and replacing Gurriel. That doesn't include internal improvement from McCormick and Pena. If the Astros add Contreras or Murphy, that is a massive upgrade as well.... and even if they don't sign a major LF, there will be improvement. The Astros offense will be very good, and with another move or two it could be the best overall in baseball. I asked a couple of people this morning about Verlander and the pitching situation. They knew Verlander would leave when DeGrom signed with the Rangers, because the Mets would go to a third year. The Astros nerd cave and Miller are looking for another starter in free agency. Right now the cost for pitching is extremely high so it may be a little bit later that they sign someone, but they are concerned losing Verlander and possible injury could over stress the pen and they don't want that to happen.
I see a continuation of a 50-50 split if both are part of the roster from the beginning of the year and are healthy.
I will be surprised if Contreras would end up playing a lot in LF. They may try him out there, but he would mostly DH and catch and play some at first when Abreu DH's. Come playoffs, Contreras would be behind the plate to extend the line up. Murphy is an excellent overall catcher, one of the 3-5 best in baseball. The problem is that the prospect cost for the Astros would be massive and would likely also cost the Astros Garcia and/or Brown. He isn't likely to be remotely cheap. Ultimately the Astros may decide to role with Maldonado and Lee and spend money on a LFer and a middling starting pitcher.
It likely depends on how well Contreras adapts to the Astros pitching staff and who the options are at DH. The Astros would want Contreras behind the plate in the playoffs, and he likely would be. A lot of the value of Maldonado is in preparing and meeting with Miller and the starting pitcher and preparing for how they will pitch in upcoming games.... the Astros can get that without Maldonado starting. A lot of line up construction is minimizing weaknesses and having an extended line up. Contreras does that.... Abreu, Altuve, Bregman, Tucker, Alvarez and Contreras all are in the group of hitters that are at least 25% above average.... that is 6 guys that are very very good hitters.... if they sign Brantley or another solid left fielder, that would give them 7.... and McCormick and Pena are average hitters.... that is a very dangerous and deep line up, especially the second time through the order.
Just me personally, I prefer the last option. It gives you the most flexibility with a view toward long term continued dominance. Let McCormick and Peña continue to grow. See what you have with Diaz, Lee and Leon. Add a LF bat to extend your lineup to 7/8. I can get behind Contreras. Maybe I’ve become too accustomed to getting zero hitting at catcher, and this presents us with an opportunity to get a high quality hitter that plays a position of need…but I worry it compromises our future, both financially and as far as prospect development. I guess if Lee develops, you move Maldy to the 3rd catcher role? Just hate to not really see what Lee or Diaz could become. Fine if they flame out, but you don’t know what you don’t know.
First base skill: hey catcher skill, loving the new hairstyle. Catcher skill: aww thanks, you're too kind.
I can see that now. If Contreras is that good of a hitter, such that he belongs in the conversation with those other 5 guys, it really does make this lineup filthy. Is there anything that can be done to keep Yanier Diaz if that’s the case? Maybe backup to Abreu at 1B with some time added at DH.
2nd Altuve SS Peña LF Yordan 3B Bregman RF Tucker 1B Abreu C Contreras CF McCormick DH Rotation among bench players Bench C Maldonado C Lee INF UTL: A Diaz INF UTL: Y Diaz OF UTL: Meyers or Leon
I think a ton of us fans have gotten used to (1) having no offense from maldy, and (2) top of the league SP. Since we just won with that formula, it is easy to forget that our lineup was just B+. I am guilty of this too. The nerd cave/brain trust is cooking up ways for the whole to be stronger, particularly in the postseason. By definition it sort of HAS TO look at least a little different from last year because it’s damn near impossible to match or beat what we got from our SP last year, particularly now that JV is gone. Likewise, it’s damn hard to have such bad offensive production at C since we have options to improve via FA. At this point, it seems like Contreras is far and away the best signing to improve our chances in the next 2-3 years. My worry is that it could limit Crane’s ability or willingness to spend to keep Altuve or Bregs, and maybe someone could do that analysis. I’m assuming Tucker is gone, and for that reason, we need to hang on to high upside prospects and hope they develop into our next Peña.
It’s a long season; players get hurt. There will be plenty of opportunities for Lee, Diaz, and Leon to get extended runs even if you sign a catcher and outfielder. Likewise innings available even if you sign a MOR innings eater.
