1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

  2. Live Rockets Discussion
    Jalen Green looks like a legit star, Amen Thompson is shining and the Rockets have found something without Alperen Sengun. Clutch is talking about the 10-game winning streak at 11:00am as we talk Rockets live!

    Talking Rockets - LIVE!

[Official] Astros Off Season

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Castor27, Nov 7, 2022.

  1. Madmanmetz

    Madmanmetz Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2012
    Messages:
    2,051
    Likes Received:
    2,399
    I agree. However that doesn't count for anything because Dusty doesn't agree.
     
  2. Jeremy Williams

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2016
    Messages:
    1,166
    Likes Received:
    878
    My dream 26 (bust the tax!):

    2B Altuve
    SS Pena
    LF/DH Alvarez
    3B Bregman
    RF Tucker
    1B Abreu
    CF Nimmo (20M)
    C Contreras (18-20M)
    LF/DH Benentendi, Conforto or Brantley: (8-14M)
    BN Maldanado
    BN Dubon
    BN Chas
    BN Hensley
    SP Valdez
    SP Javier
    SP McCullers
    SP Brown
    SP Garcia
    SP Urquidy
    RP Maton or Martinez
    RP Stanek
    RP Rogers or Chafin (10-15M)
    RP Pressly
    RP Abreu
    RP Montero
    RP Neris

    Realistically I’d be happy with as many of these additions as possible.
     
    Wulaw Horn likes this.
  3. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 1999
    Messages:
    47,911
    Likes Received:
    14,153
    If he was going to be getting that... he would have already signed.

    They're still trying to drum up a market.
     
    robbie380 and Marshall Bryant like this.
  4. Landry's Tooth

    Joined:
    Dec 31, 2020
    Messages:
    3,745
    Likes Received:
    2,093
    Benintendi getting more than that.... close to Nimmo money...

    I also don't think Contreras is good value. We'd be blocking two young catchers to justify playing him at catcher because Contreras would be a below average DH....

    I think we need Lee or Diaz to be the guy in a year so we have more money to retain Tuck, Valdez, or Javier.
     
  5. rockets1995

    rockets1995 Member

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 2011
    Messages:
    5,269
    Likes Received:
    6,479
  6. Jeremy Williams

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2016
    Messages:
    1,166
    Likes Received:
    878
    Fanduel is projecting Benentendi for 14/per. At this point in our system, we cant rely on 2 rookies with less than 70 innings to assume 50+ games behind the plate.

    We can take extensions as they come. Im not banking on being able to extend guys that want big $.
     
    Wulaw Horn likes this.
  7. Landry's Tooth

    Joined:
    Dec 31, 2020
    Messages:
    3,745
    Likes Received:
    2,093
    Yeah, we wouldn't want another Jeremy Pena situation where we have a good young player on the cheap holding it down a few years...

    Spotrac has Benintendi at 17.5 and Nimmo at roughly 21.

    In all fairness i did use a subjective term... i was thinking a few million less...

    You may not bank on signing guys to extensions but having bad contracts on the books makes it a lot harder to replace them.

    If you are signing a free agent it should be because there's nothing coming in the pipeline. Brantley signing didn't block a leftfielder coming up...

    I'm also suggesting Lee or Diaz serve as a backup and let Maldy work with them, so no they would have more than 70 innings and not be rookies by the time they would be relied on.

    If Maldy gets hurt they can trade for someone. If Lee and Diaz both struggle as backups they can still trade for someone.

    They don't need to commit a 4 or 5 year deal on a veteran who only has value as a catcher offensively.

    If Contreras hit like prime Victor Martinez then you could argue some time at DH too and greater flexibility.
     
  8. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2012
    Messages:
    10,952
    Likes Received:
    14,697
    If they signed Contreras and Benintendi (or another good hitting LF capable of playing RF/CF), the 11th, 12th, and 13th position players would be little-used. Contreras would likely effectively serve as the backup at C, 1B, DH, LF, CF, and RF (since he can play LF/1B and Benintendi could slide over to cover RF/CF). So the 11-13 guys would only need to be the primary backups for 2B, SS, and 3B. Assuming everybody stays healthy, Dubon would only play ~60 games as the 11th position player. The other 2 guys would be pure pinch-runners, defensive replacements, or injury replacements.
     
  9. Jeremy Williams

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2016
    Messages:
    1,166
    Likes Received:
    878
    Contreras hits the ball VERY well. He would easily upgrade our DH with Alvarez in LF.

    Lee already had some time in MLB and struggled. Its hard to trade for a quality C in the early months of the season. Even if Lee begins to produce like an average MLB catcher, we still need someone else for 2024 and beyond. Contreras fits that profile.
     
  10. Landry's Tooth

    Joined:
    Dec 31, 2020
    Messages:
    3,745
    Likes Received:
    2,093
    Fyi, not trying to be harsh. I have an opinion as do you.

    It's ok to disagree.

    The Contreras move to me only works as a full time catcher. As a part time DH or LF/1B etc. his bat is very mediocre.

    People like fwar a lot for some reason as a catch all. I think it's just a piece to consider but Contreras is showing a 3.0 for 2023.

    Here are some at the same last year:
    Brandon Drury
    Gavin Lux
    DJ LeMahieu

    30 million over 2 is fine. Doing 4 or 5 years at 20 per is too much to me...

    Contreras gets you 3 to Maldy's 1.2 fwar.

    So if you're talking 2 WAR difference, give me Nimmo over McCormick.

    Nimmo is a 4.5 and McCormick is a 1.4.

    Just my preference...
     
  11. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,567
    Likes Received:
    10,430
    Nimmo will require at least a 5 year commitment. Mccormick is controllable for a long time.
     
    everyday eddie likes this.
  12. Jeremy Williams

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2016
    Messages:
    1,166
    Likes Received:
    878
    Totally agree. The whole point of dialogue is thinking through things together.

    WAR is based on time played. Its not the best stat for comparison for a guy only getting 110 games a year. Ive shown a lot of advanced stats that show him as a top 40 hitter for any position.
     
    Wulaw Horn and Marshall Bryant like this.
  13. Marshall Bryant

    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2018
    Messages:
    8,764
    Likes Received:
    4,704
    We have McCormick, Meyers and Leon who can cover this season. It is my understanding our best prospects in the OF are still a couple of years away.
     
  14. Landry's Tooth

    Joined:
    Dec 31, 2020
    Messages:
    3,745
    Likes Received:
    2,093
    Contreras had an offensive war in 2022 of 3.7.

    That was 45th in baseball.

    Contreras had an ops+ of 128.

    Here are some others in that ballpark who would be cheaper dh options:

    Josh Bell
    Eugenio Suarez
    Hunter Renfroe
    Teoscar Hernandez
    Christian Walker
    Bryan Reynolds

    I know some of them have been traded...point was they could have gotten Hernandez or Renfroe very cheap in trade as they were salary dumps. Even so, they are cheaper than paying 4 years 80 to Willson to be a DH. They could pursue a Walker trade still.

    I would take Bell on a one year deal for 15-20 before Contreras. It's the years that concern me, not the aav...

    Contreras as a catcher has value. To me Contreras as a DH is just a guy.

    Evan Gattis as a DH in 2016 (and small time catcher) posted a .826 ops with an ops+ of 125. He didn't cost 80 over 4 years.

    Contreras is obviously better than Gattis... lifetime ops of .775 v .808...

    Gattis was done at 31, the age Willson will be next year, so it's a fair comparison for age purposes.

    I'm coming at this as a value question which takes into account salary and talent to acquire. Gattis at 4-7 million is better value than Contreras at 20 purely from an offensive standpoint.

    Defensively night and day which is where I've said Contreras' value lies.
     
    Major likes this.
  15. Landry's Tooth

    Joined:
    Dec 31, 2020
    Messages:
    3,745
    Likes Received:
    2,093
    If you're comparing catchers, most of them miss 20+ games for rest.

    I still like OPS which tells me Contreras is a good bat, but not an elite one.

    I would prefer Nimmo and the .400 ob% over Contreras.
     
  16. Marshall Bryant

    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2018
    Messages:
    8,764
    Likes Received:
    4,704
    When looking at WAR, it needs to be adjusted to a typical players year. My favorite adjustment is 600 PA. So using this, here are Baseball Reference WAR/600 PAs:

    McCormick 407 PA 1.3 WAR = 1.9 WAR
    Benintendi 521 PA 3.2 WAR = 3.7 WAR
    Nimmo 673 PA 5.1 WAR = 4.5 WAR
    Meyers (2021) 163 PA 1.2 WAR = 4.4 WAR

    Meyers is a small sample and no one disputes he was not the same player in 2022. But it shows his potential. Many forget anything longer than his terrible year trying to come back from surgery.
     
    #3076 Marshall Bryant, Dec 2, 2022
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2022
    Jeremy Williams likes this.
  17. Landry's Tooth

    Joined:
    Dec 31, 2020
    Messages:
    3,745
    Likes Received:
    2,093
    Barber to me is the replacement for Tucker if he won't be reasonable.
     
  18. Sep11ie

    Sep11ie Member

    Joined:
    Dec 4, 2018
    Messages:
    1,052
    Likes Received:
    2,126
    If Gattis was putting up those numbers coming into a FA season he would be getting at least 15 million per year in 2022.
     
    Wulaw Horn likes this.
  19. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2016
    Messages:
    4,559
    Likes Received:
    6,317
    Doing a quick scan it looks like the only remaining free agents with a higher OPS than Contreras last year are Correa, Bogaerts, and Judge. None of which will be Astros.

    So exactly who do you want taking half the games at DH when Yordan is in LF?

    Personally, I am sick of Maldy being treated as the catching whisperer in this organization. I give Contreras 60 plus games behind the plate this year and 70 at DH. Allow him to learn the catching duties under Maldy and then Contreras is the starting catcher in 2024. Hopefully the electronic strike zone is around soon and his framing abilities won't matter anymore.
     
  20. Kemahkeith

    Kemahkeith Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Mar 27, 2018
    Messages:
    1,169
    Likes Received:
    1,877
    I'm curious,
    If we re sign Brantley and Yuli
    We have Abreau.
    If we sign Contreras and Bennitendi
    We already have Alvarez who when not playing LF is the best DH in the league.

    How do we get all of these guys at bats?
    There is only a finite amount of DH starts to around.
    I'm not smart enough to do the math, I was a Ross Perot era high school graduate.
     
    Houstunna likes this.

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now