I've noticed many of the projections are back to using a 5 pitcher rotation. Shouldn't we take a long look at the benefits we saw last season after using the 6 man rotation much of the season? Less wear and tear. Fresher going into the post season. Less taxing Bull Pen led to better performance. Did we just luck into a successful strategy because we got a replacement in Odorizzi that we didn't really wind up needing? Just think this thing through before going back to a 5 pitcher rotation. Also, I saw some discussion about variation in eye level when using pitchers which appear to be using the same pitches. I suspect having hitters who have different swing paths may also help us from going into a complete hitting funk. I'd like to see how some of our hitters managed to get hits on pitcher's pitches rather than the mistakes that Bags said he feasted on. I'm particularly thinking of hits at the edge or outside of the zone traditionally considered pitcher's pitches.
Does anyone here subscribe to ESPN+? If so can you post this article? https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/in...2-23-free-agency-offseason-moves-all-30-teams
https://fansided.com/2022/11/23/hou...urce=msn&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=msn "The Astros are clearly a lethal team in general as they won the World Series, presumably without cheating in 2022." It's getting sssooooo old.
If we do not sign JV, and Montero ($11.5M AAV-3 years), Abreu ($12.5M AAV - 2 years) and J. D Martinez ($15M AAV - 2 years) are our only name additions, would you consider this a successful off season? This would leave C2 a rookie and McCormick in CF.
Cristian Javier is far more valuable than someone unproven at the big league level. If you're dealing with players of similar age and club control; the player with success in the big leagues is far more valuable. There's no way Pena gets traded for Volpe for example. Volpe has the higher ceiling but he's also the one more likely to be out of baseball 6 years from now. There are tons of players who destroy AAA pitching that can't hit in the majors. It's the biggest jump. Miguel Cabrera got traded for two top 10 prospects. They were both busts. Andrew Miller made himself into a decent reliever but he was supposed to be Kershaw, Scherzer, Verlander, etc.
If JV moves on and Monteto + 2 big bats is what the offseason results in I will be sad at the loss of JV but excited for the season. 2 bats is enough. However I don't like your suggestions. Abreu would be my preference so that's fine but he certainly isn't signing for $12.5M AAV. I would expect 2 yrs $40M which is what mlbtraderumors.com predicted. Nowhere have I seen anywhere close to $12.5M. I don't like Martinez at all. He has fallen off terribly and no longer looks like the guy from a few years ago. Especially since he has no defensive value - hard pass. The 2nd guy needs to bat LF so I like Conforto on a $15M 1yr prove it deal or 1yr + vesting option Neither guy will create long term commitment issues. Using the young catchers as back ups is fine to me
Feel like you're stating obvious points: established players are more valuable than prospects, prospects can bust, etc... There is absolutely a case to be made for trading 3 arb years of Javier for 6 years of Moreno (as primary pieces in a trade). I'm not particularly advocating for it; in fact i wouldn't do it. But the trade itself comes down to who will provide more surplus value. There is a projected 6-year WAR total for Moreno's club control years; if you believe he's a ML catcher off the bat and future all-star level catcher in his later years of team control that might be worth more than 3 arb years of Javier. It depends on needs, payroll and timelines. If the Stros happen to resign JV it'd be ludicrous to not consider flipping Javier for the top catching prospect in baseball. They'd be trading from depth for a huge area of weakness. That might solidify the position for the rest of the decade. Again, I'm not particularly advocating one way or another. The original comments were a commentary on what the trade price of a top 10 overall catching prospect looks like.
Berrios got a top 10 prospect, another good prospect, and relative to Javier had fewer years of control, made more money, and was handed an extension shortly after. The issue i have with the thinking is you're not assuming a weighted value. Let's say Javier on a value scale is an 8. Moreno has potential to be an allstar catcher which would make him a 10 when factoring in club control and salary. The issue is there might be a 20% chance of that happening, a 50% chance he's just a guy, and a 30% chance he's a complete bust like Jesus Montero. I'm all for optimism, but you have to factor in he hasn't done it and may never do it. Top 10 prospects in 2013: #1 Jurickson Profar Dylan Bundy Oscar Taveras Wil Myers Taijuan Walker Travis D'Arnaud Jose Fernandez Zack Wheeler Gerrit Cole Tyler Skaggs Now 3 of those guys aren't even alive now (by fluke). Wheeler and Cole are the only consistent allstar threats. So that's 2 of the 7 living players. If Moreno is D'Arnaud and Javier is a top 2 starter it would take a very good sweetner to make such a trade not a disaster... I have no problem dealing for a young prospect you think will step in right away. I would rather deal an unknow for an unknown... like Hunter Brown for Moreno... Brown looks good but if he's just good like a Wade Miller you might win that...
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/analysis/ A more direct link to what I believe you are trying to show. It's also the only place I have seen that valuation on Abreu. I've mostly seen $18-20M.
Several paths to the information. But none of them are reliable every year. Many valuations are convenient reports of what they are ASKING, not what they expect to get. I like Spotrac's evaluation report when you click on the number. It list comparable contracts and then makes adjustments. It's much like the valuation of Homes.
It's a common technique if there are sufficient comps to throw out the high and the low because there might be something peculiar about the transaction. You an extend this to more than one if there are several which deviate significantly. For example, after Harvey, some homes were under insured and sold as is because they couldn't afford to repair them. These did not make good comparable sales to repaired properties.
They have Andrew Vaughn. Maybe those 2 will split time at 1B and if that's the case, why not go the cheaper route with Belt over Abreu. *apparently they used Vaughn in the OF last year and he was no good
Projected WAR is inclusive of bust potential.... You can directly compare projected fWAR and surplus WAR (WAR relative to salary) in a trade scenario between an established player and prospect. I mean at this point you're basically saying it's dumb to trade young established players for younger more untested players/prospects. I respect that as a sentiment that you personally wouldn't choose to do so but the fact is it's done not uncommonly in MLB. The Rays have done it several times in the last decade, often to great success.
