The incredible transformation of Justin Brooks Verlander

I don't expect a huge discount but in all those interviews after the World Series. He kept saying how this season was different and it meant more. Why for a few more million would u want to leave an almost perfect situation. I understand getting what your worth but to go for the throat and try and get the highest aap for a pitcher. Idk it's like all those things he said were BS.
I'd love him back on a deal fair to both sides.

 

Himself of course, check the name.

 

****ing exactly.

 

Sources breh?!

 

I understand the difference between surveying the market, which he is doing, and taking the highest contract. I have to see what he does before judging his sincerity. He has only pitched for two teams in his long career. And it took a complete tear down and persuasion to leave the Tigers. He has not acted like a mercenary up to this point. But any athlete likes his ego massaged by getting close to his market value.

 

No, but nobody likes to retire numbers like the Astros

 

You could similarly say if it's just a few million, why wouldn't the Astros pay more if it's that important/meaningful to them? People always expect players to take a discount, but never expect teams to pay a premium.

 

It depends on whether you have to sacrifice either financial security or legacy and which you choose. You hope to get both, you choose which is more important if you have a choice and you hope neither is not your only option.

But the thing I remember (I think) is a season where we kept waiting for a player (I think Beltran) to make up his mind and essentially wasted the entire off season only to have him leave. I do NOT want that to happen again.

 

I will be pretty surprised if Crane gives Verlander a $40M AAV. JV is gonna be a Blue Jay, a Dodger, or a Yankee.

 

I could see incentives and opt outs coming into play to get the total potential commitment up to $120M/3yrs with Houston. But Crane will not do that without limiting his downside. Something like $70M/2yrs plus $5M in IP and award incentives each of those 2 years plus a $40M vesting 3rd year player option. But for now I expect one of those other teams to offer him a straight copy of Scherzers contract.

 

Just kicking this out there. What if we extended at a lower AAV? 5 year $150M with a $25M Player option if minimums are met, but no buyout. This gets the AAV down to $30M and is essentially a lifetime contract if he pitches to age 46. This guarantees him a little more than a 3-$135M he might be offered, but for 5-6 years. We shift CBT out beyond 2024 leaving more room for extensions and acquisitions. Maybe a retirement bonus should he retire before the end of his contract rather than an opt out.

 

I'm looking at the Yankees payroll. After they sign Judge, they will be right at the second threshold of 250 million. So any contract they sign with Verlander would be his salary plus 32 percent. They would be paying over 50 million for Verlander next season.

 

This is more like what I am hoping for.

I think JV is looking for more years because
1) he doesn't want to have to hear "you are too old" again in 2 years
2) He wants to pitch a few more years and get 300 wins.

I think the market in general has shifted to shorter offers with higher AAV which I usually agree with.

In this case I think the Astros can make an offer against the grain and sign him.

3 yrs/$110M + $20M players option/$10M buyout.

AAV is $32.5M

JV guaranteed $120M for 3 yrs and a place to pitch as a 43 year old yo get 300 wins if he needs it.

 

In JV's case, both of those are secured already. So maybe what he values most at this point is respect or being valued - and if a team isn't willing to pay him market value (that applies to any team), that's a sign that another team values him more. I'm just guessing here, but that's the general concept of paying market value.

In JV's case given the Astros' roster construction, I would let him walk and spend that money elsewhere. As great as he is, we have the luxury of having an abundance of starting pitching. But, like with Correa, I wouldn't expect him to take less to stay here and I wouldn't hold it against him that he went elsewhere because someone else paid him more.

 

Can we do something like 2 years $75M with 3 team options that vest with 165 innings each year? With escalators or other vesting options based on other metrics?

Like is there an opportunity to get creative at all with bonuses or options or is JV a take it or leave it kinda guy that has earned a straight up contract at this point and would see getting creative as disrespectful?

 

I'm fairly sure that JV is only accepting a contract from a team expecting to compete for a championship so he can continue to rack up more wins to get him closer to 300. Below are the odds of teams besides the Astros with the highest probability to sign him, and they all should be in the running. Except the Angels of course.

Current odds for other teams:
New York Mets+350 22.2%
New York Yankees+400 20%
Los Angeles Dodgers+450 18.2%
Philadelphia Phillies+500 16.7%
Los Angeles Angels+700 12.5%
Atlanta Braves+750 11.8%
Toronto Blue Jays+1000 9.1%
San Francisco Giants+1000 9.1%
San Diego Padres+1200 7.7%

 

JV isn't going to take that, he can get straight up 40mil+ from other teams with no strings attach.

 

Honestly, who knows? Only Verlander knows what Verlander wants. He's as in the drivers seat as any free-agent I can remember.

It didn't take super long but I'm already over the speculation and media hype. I just hope he settles the matter soon, whether or not he stays.