Nook, like to get your thoughts on this possibility. Crane, after speaking to JV the day after they won the WS and after the parade, and knowing he's out there asking for a Scherzer type deal, and also realizing there's a really strong possibility of a team giving him this, then (along with the guidance of guys like Baggy and the others he has in his circle that he trusts) were ok with losing JV if it takes a guaranteed 3rd yr, and are good with rolling with Framber, Javier, LMJ, Garcia, Urquidy and Brown, but realizing now how much more important it would be to keep the depth they had in their dominant pen and thus why they shifted their focus to Montero right out of the gate and locked him down (and were even willing to over pay just a little bit) to get him. With the depth in their pen, and being able to shorten games to 5-6 innings (about where you start going through a Teams lineup the 3rd time) and feeling confident the starters they have (even without JV) can consistently get you that deep into games (especially in the playoffs), that this is a formula that's worked for them, and again why they locked up Montero early and now hopefully improve the team offensively at 1B and DH and maybe even CF. Thoughts?
I personally do not want the Astros to bring EVERYONE back, there are some young players that they need to give time to play and see if they can contribute, because they are long term cheap options if they work out. I think the Astros will likely avoid signing a centerfielder because there is a premium for that positional need. A lot of teams want a centerfielder, so the costs are high. The Astros already have a solid centerfielder that costs them little, and they have several high-end prospects in the minors that could be centerfielders in a year or two. That also hold true of corner outfielders. They would likely sign someone on a short-term deal, maybe even at a larger number but I don't think we will see anything over two years in length. The Astros will likely sign a first baseman or at least a player that can at worst play some there. Someone like Jose Abreu would fill their need for a first baseman for 2 seasons. If they don't get someone like Abreu, we may see them sign Contreras and play him there when he isn't catching. If you believe what I heard earlier, the Astros are not necessarily adverse to signing another pitcher to be at the top of their rotation if it is at a really good value. For example, if Carlos Rodon decides to sign a 1-2 year deal, the Astros would be very interested. Not my business, but I think the Astros interest in a lefty reliever is foolish. They need to listen to their pitching coaches and just put the best pitchers in a position to pitch. It is a waste of money IMO.
I am not on the Verlander band wagon. I think his ship has sailed. There were certainly signs in the playoffs, that he has regressed a tad, at least when the pressure is on. I certainly hope that the Astros don't break the bank to retain him. Astro pitching is not the problem, hitting is. They won the WS because of pitching. Occasional "big hits" and "big plays" were key, but pitching carried the load. Shore up the batting average, that is what is needed.
No joke, it is the position that just about every team is pursuing. I think the Anderson signing by the Braves was a very smart signing.
I don't know what Baggy and Clemens told Crane about Verlander or his importance.... but the rest I agree with. The Astros were able to keep their pen in tact for 11.5 million a year and they went ahead and tied him up. So, one or maybe even a few guys in the pen could falter, but bringing Montero back adds another bullet to throw out there. Same with Brown if Miller decides to keep him in the pen this year. We want as many as possible.
taking what you see what happened in the pressures of a postseason and WS run isn't really indicative of whats going to happen throughout the course of the year. You can shore up the batting lineup and it looks fine on paper but nobody is going to see how tuve went through a major slump in 90% of the postseason. or how yordan goes basically pedestrian after the 1st round. Or how Yuli after struggling all year becomes the most consistent bat in the lineup. Hitting became a problem because a lot of hou's best bats go cold. that's always going to happen in baseball. The most talented lineups just ask the dodgers/mets/braves can go cold regardless if you have 1-9 all solid. The stros won in all phases of the games. Offensive Efficiency at the right time at the plate, defense, pitching. The shift ban is going to change things a ton moving forward and its going to be interesting to see who actually can play real defense in this league or who benefited the most
So what was Montero's AAV? I would have guessed 8-9 million. How do you even come up with an AAV on a player who's been terrible his entire career through the age of 31 and then has one breakout season? I mean he was seriously on the brink of being out of baseball completely, that's how poorly he had pitched. We got to trust the pitching coach was consulted by Crane and asked if he thought Montero's issues were behind him.
I wouldn't say every team. There just are too many great teams that know/think they are going to be in the postseason with a good chance at a bye. High end relievers are getting paid for postseason work more than any other position with possible exception of an ace. With expanded playoffs, trading for pitchers is going to cost an arm and a leg at the deadline. It is just one of those things...even with how tough it to predict relief pitchers' future performance, gotta have it for the playoffs which is driving up the price. I really like that the Astros have a full pen returning with options in the minors in case one or two of the MLB releivers turn to pumpkins.
$11.5M AAV I would say Montero was an above average reliever for the Rangers in 2019 and 2020 also with a bad year in 2021. That 2019 Ranger pen had Leclerq, Montero, Clase, and Fairbanks and still sucked.
I asked the wrong question there. Is there a website that comes up with projected values for free agents? Would be really curious to see what the market value was for Montero.
So with the signing of Diaz and now Montero, has the relief pitcher market finally caught up with the rest of baseball? Certainly appears that way, especially after the Astros showed you can win a World Series with limited bats and inconsistent starting pitching.
until these high paying relief pitchers flounder and teams are left holding the bill. RP seem to find lighting in a bottle every year -- it's hard to predict who will be great; and great relief pitchers seem to rarely sustain their success... I'm with you -- I think its the easier position to roll the dice with a bit and then scramble to shore up at the trade deadline vs lock in some set up guys that you are hoping sustain their success. I don't like the overpay either.
Yeah I'm on record stating the Montero signing was definitely an overpay. I don't believe there was a huge market for him. We didn't need to cave that quickly, especially with the emergence of Abreu. And especially not 3 years. The Astros now sport the 4th and 5th highest paid relief pitchers in all of baseball. I don't think that's where you want to position yourself.
The Astros have the 4th and 5th highest paid relief pitchers for the same reason Albert Pujols holds the record for career GIDPs.
So because of two bad playoff starts you’re ready to say the ship has sailed on JV? Come on. Elite pitchers struggle in the postseason all the time. It’s a crap shoot. If his regular season was shaky then I’d be right with you, but he put up one of the best 2-3 seasons of his career.
Yankees have been calling the postseason a crap shoot for the last 7 years. They keep running in to the Astros which is there version of a crap shoot. Will we see them in the playoffs or not.
The stros being the yankees daddy the last few years doesn't make it less of a crapshoot. It still is. It's not like the yankees never led in any of the series played, they did. going 6 games and 7 games in 17'/19'
