I'd be very surprised if Crane gave him a guaranteed 3rd yr. In '19 he signed him to a two yr deal (66 mil) after he won the CY. JV pitched 6 innings on that contract. Last yr he was signed to another two yr contract (with an opt out if reached 130 IP). Now he's about to win the CY and I would think that Crane is wanting another two yr deal. The difference this time is JV will more than likely get an offer from a team guaranteeing a 3rd yr. Crane may be willing to have an option on a 3rd yr if JV reaches certain milestones over the two yrs of the contract (which is VERY fair). As I said previously we're about to find out what JV is the most motivated by.
If I were Crane, I’d offer Justin 2 guaranteed years with incentives based on innings and performance. A third club option with guarantees based on prior of performances in seasons one and two would be fine.
We already found out with him asking for 3 years 130. Means he cares more about money than The team putting together a World Series contender And potentially going to a lesser team just for money
The way I see it, Verlander is chasing money, wins and rings -- probably in that order. In order to maximize his return on all of those three elements, he'll want to sign with a team that offers him the most money while cementing his legacy. The only teams, in my view, that offer him the trifecta are the Astros and the Dodgers, with the Yankees and Mets running in 3rd and 4th place respectively. Sure a team like the Tigers and Giants could pay him what he wants, but he won't win as many games or make it to the WS (highly unlikely). If he picks the Yankees, he better hope Judge comes back and even then he knows the Astros have their number (say hi Cole). If he goes Mets, they have a tough division and the hot hand seems to come out of the NL East during the playoffs. Thus I think it's down to the Dodgers -- will they offer Verlander a 3 year/$120M deal? They are over the luxury tax and also have 13% additional state taxes to contend with. If the Astros offer 2/$75M with a third year incetive laden option (say $80 M guaranteed - which is worth ~$90M in LA), is that enough to bring it home? Also do the Dodgers really want to tie up that much money in Verlander with their other issues at SS and outfield and 3B? If you take out the need to get wins and rings, then more teams can and will offer Verlander what he wants. If he wants the legacy, then in my mind it is clear it is the Astros or maybe the Dodgers in play.
The Dodgers have issues at SS and 1B? They have a guy named Freddie Freeman at 1B and word is they feel very confident that Gavin Lux can slide over from 2B to play SS.
Honestly if I am crane I make him a fair offer like 3 year 95 million with a 5-6 million buyout on year three and if he doesn’t take it move on. tell him it’s available unless the Money is spent on other free agents. Hes not showing loyalty so why should the Astros. Price check Rondon and degrom and look to add multiple impact bats
Will be curious to see how the timeline of the Verlander deal plays out. I imagine Crane wants to get a deal done with him first so he knows what he has to spend elsewhere, but if Verlander drags this out he will have to pivot to a bat at some point. He can't let himself get Beltraned. Verlander does not care about the Astros, he's never cared about them. We're a convenient place for him to work, nothing more. If another competitive team offers him more money that's where he'll go. If we make a similar offer, or come really close he'll likely stay. People here are more attached to Verlander than he is to Houston. Athletes caring about themselves has never bothered me personally, its just a job at the end of the day.
they need to sign Trea or another impact bat which costs money - and yeah didn’t mean 1B - their outfield beyond Betts and 3B are areas to address. Point is they have a lot of balls in tne air that will cost them and will need to do a trade benefit analysis on cost of Verlander vs other positions - same as Astros. I still think they are the favorites due to their proclivity to open the wallet
Urquidy and/or Garcia are the guys being talked about trading. I have literally not seen any other current pitchers even speculated. The Astros played 13 playoff games. Urquidy pitched in 1: the final 3 innings of a game they were down 7-0 when he entered. Garcia pitched twice: he was the 6th pitcher brought in for the 10th inning of a tie game and he was the 8th pitcher brought in to a tie game in the 14th inning. I agree about not breaking up dominant pitching but trading away the 10th or 11th best pitcher on the roster is not doing that. The suggestions I have seen only consider trading if JV returns. That means the putching staff would still be: JV, Framber, Lance, Javier, Brown, Garcia OR Urquidy. Pressly, Abreu, Montero, Neris, Stanek, Martinez, Maton. Paredes, Dubin, Taylor, Mushinski, Blanco, and France for depth. I expect Bielak and James to be DFA. That staff is still the best in baseball.
I would not trade away any pitching. It's extremely unlikely that we'll be anywhere to as close as healthy as we were this year.
if we bring back Verlander we will likely need to trade a pitcher to help with other holes in the lineup. Also it’s not like the 7 pitchers aren’t all clambering to start. You have to sit two starters basically and that is a bit of a luxury to have - not a must
LAD certainly have some things they need to address. Do they "need" to resign T. Turner? As I said they may just move Lux over from 2B. If I were them I would try to bring back T. Turner given what he brings to the table (especially his speed and the new rule changes going into effect next yr). Another thing, the LAD haven't worried about $$ and going over the luxury tax nor should they given their financial resources. What they need to decide, do they think rolling with Urias, Gonsolin, May and Kershaw is enough to win a WS? Remember Buehler is out next yr having had TJ surgery I believe in Aug? He says he may be able to get back by Sept but that seems way too optimistic in my opinion. So do they go after JV and give him a 3yr/130 type contract? They'll definitely be aggressive in FA signing another bat (or two). They're the LAD and $$ has never been an obstacle. Going to be interesting to see how things play out.
Yep I’m agreeing - they make the most sense for Verlander beyond the Astros and the Dodgers have deeper pockets. I’d give them the edge
Defensively he is at worst average. He has a strong arm and overall is okay at throwing out runners. The concern with him isn't defense or offense, it is his game calling and how comfortable he is with the pitching staff. Even if we sign him, he isn't catching a couple of guys in the rotation and possibly 3 if Verlander comes back. So what I think would happen is he would catch 80 games and play some 1st and DH.
Yeah I won't bet against JV pitching till he is 45. Modern medicine, his drive to be like the old school pitchers and get 300 wins, he missed 2 seasons which I think makes him wanna prove how great he is after Tommy John. He has a deeper love and appreciation for the game. Ryan was a beast from age 40 -44 finally became average after that. I see no reason to doubt a guy that just hung a Cy Young quality season after 2 years on the shelf with surgery and rehab. If his medicals are good he is as much a risk as anybody. I'd take him over LMC for the next 2 season for sure.
