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Who’s your 1B choice?

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by whiskeyred, Nov 14, 2022.

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Who’s your 1B choice?

  1. Anthony Rizzo

    34 vote(s)
    19.1%
  2. Josh Bell

    15 vote(s)
    8.4%
  3. Yuli Gurriel

    35 vote(s)
    19.7%
  4. Jose Abreu

    86 vote(s)
    48.3%
  5. Other

    8 vote(s)
    4.5%
  1. Jeremy Williams

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    We haven’t historically leaked players we have gone on to sign—at least not well in advance.
     
    CinematicFusion likes this.
  2. Houstunna

    Houstunna The Most Unbiased Fan
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    So it would've been better if I straight stated instead of asking?

    The moon is only valid if Rizzo experienced moon landing

    What has gotten into you lately?

    The sentiment of my post was obvious

    Yet you say some stupid ****. You didn't know about Rizzo. You can lie about it or deflect the fact but life isn't just about you. Do you really believe most people who read already knew? Be honest

    Or, you can continue being fraud about it
     
    #22 Houstunna, Nov 14, 2022
    Last edited: Nov 14, 2022
  3. CisBuds4U

    CisBuds4U Member

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    That’s what I’m saying. Any leaks regarding the Astros and a potential signee is probably a smoke screen by a third party to generate leverage - unless the talks were so advanced the deal was about to be signed. Hence why I don’t believe the Astros will land Rizzo - that and the draft pick cost hurt
     
  4. Buck Turgidson

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    Moon Landings and School Shootings...

    You sure know how to talk baseball.
     
  5. Houstunna

    Houstunna The Most Unbiased Fan
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    Talk to the other poster about moon landings. I didn't introduce the notion

    Typical Bosom Buddy response. Congrats on your Ripken-level streak
     
  6. Yordan The Great

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    .315 Altuve
    .270 Pena
    .325 Alvarez
    .295 Bregman
    .275 Tucker
    .290 Abreu
    .310 Brantley
    .285 Vasquez
    .250 McCormick

    Best hitting lineup in 2023.
     
    13 in 33 likes this.
  7. PhiSlammaJamma

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    After seeing all the K's in the playoffs by our opponents and quite a few from the Astros too, it was nice having someone who put the ball in the play each at bat. I have no problem running this back with Yuli. He hasn't typically had great postseasons. but he was locked in this year, and that's a bat I can trust given he was a batting champ just last year. And a Gold glove. He sacrifices because of the contact and he can walk too. That's plenty good enough for me.
     
    #27 PhiSlammaJamma, Nov 15, 2022
    Last edited: Nov 15, 2022
  8. Yordan The Great

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    2017 .304 8 RBIs
    2019 .250 13 RBIs
    2021 .311 10 RBIs
    2022 .347

    He actually has come up big in 4 of the last 6 post seasons.
     
  9. PhiSlammaJamma

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    I agree with you. He's just not consistently been GREAT. But I trust him enough to run it back.
     
    #29 PhiSlammaJamma, Nov 15, 2022
    Last edited: Nov 15, 2022
  10. Yordan The Great

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    Bizarre post.
     
    Zen Tabak likes this.
  11. Buck Turgidson

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    I get what you're saying, I just always thought this was amusing:

    Derek Jeter had 13 of his 33 postseason series OPS at or under .700

    Of the 20 above, 11 were in the Division Series.

    Funny that his career postseason numbers are virtually identical to his career numbers. That's what happens when you get to play a full season (158G) of postseason games.
     
  12. Houstunna

    Houstunna The Most Unbiased Fan
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    Did you know Rizzo was born in Parkland and went to the same high school?
     
  13. Marshall Bryant

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    Could it possibly be we see Gurriel's defense the same way the Yankees saw Jeter's defense? It looks better than it actually is? I'm not saying it is, but we have to admit every team has a blind spot for the weaknesses of it's favorite players at times.
     
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  14. Marshall Bryant

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    Maybe it's a new strategy to make people think we are not interested by feigning interest, but really do have interest. Looking three moves ahead instead of two. Does anyone know if Crane plays chess?
     
    Shark44 likes this.
  15. sealclubber1016

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    Honestly it's basically a toss up between the 3, they all have qualities to like and dislike for me. Bell would be my personal choice, but only by the slightest bit.

    I think Rizzo will flat out be the best player on both sides of the ball with the extreme shift going away. He also has hit for a low average, has a signing penalty, and while not old isn't young either at 33.

    Abreu has been the most consistent and should slide in to the locker room well as a Cuban, but he is also 36 and showed declining power buoyed by a high BABIP last year.

    Bell is probably the cheapest, safest and also provides upside IMO. If they want to lock him in for 4 years with this lineup he could be a steal that helps extend our window. On the downside, save for the juiced ball season he's never hit for a ton of power (neither has Yuli), and if I were ranking them based on track record he would be the least valuable of the 3 next season, although not by much.

    I love Yuli for everything he's done here, but one hot stretch in the playoffs doesn't change what we saw the other 6 months. There's no chance I want him back as the planned everyday 1B. If they want to bring Yuli back on the cheap and have Bell/Rizzo/Abreu split time between 1B/DH I wouldn't be opposed, although I don't think that would be our best team. If we do bring back Yuli and he shows further decline can we safely bench/cut him without causing a locker room issue? If I were a betting man, I think Hensley will flat out be better than Yuli next season and far more flexible. Not to mention other prospects like Matijevic/Diaz/Dirden who may be blocked if DH is clogged.
     
    #35 sealclubber1016, Nov 15, 2022
    Last edited: Nov 15, 2022
  16. Marshall Bryant

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    I have access to Baseball Reference and MLB stats so they are the ones I use. I have used WAR (aka bWAR) as an overall player value guide with all it's imperfections because it is based on results more than appearances. It also has components of oWAR and dWAR which indicate (imperfectly) the offensive an defensive components of that value, though weighted differently. Keep in mind Average is around 1.5 to 2.0 WAR depending on position adjustment.

    https://www.blessyouboys.com/2019/1...seball-stats-wins-above-replacement-bwar-fwar

    With that in mind, here are the three metrics for the players listed in the poll for the last three full seasons (2020 excluded)

    Rizzo 33 in 2023
    2019 4.3 WAR, 3.9 oWAR, -0.4 dWAR
    2021 1.7 WAR, 2.3 oWAR, -1.3 dWAR
    2022 2.3 WAR, 2.7 oWAR, -1.1 dWAR

    Bell 30 in 2023
    2019 2.8 WAR, 3.5 oWAR, -1.6 dWAR
    2021 3.1 WAR, 3.0 oWAR, -0.7 dWAR
    2022 3.0 WAR, 3.0 oWAR, -1.0 dWAR

    Gurriel 39 in 2023
    2019 3.9 WAR, 3.5 oWAR, -0.1 dWAR
    2021 3.7 WAR, 3.2 oWAR, -0.2 dWAR
    2022 -0.3 WAR, 0.0 oWAR, -1.1 dWAR

    Abreu 36 in 2023
    2019 2.5 WAR, 2.6 oWAR, -1.1 dWAR
    2021 3.0 WAR, 3.1 oWAR, -0.9 dWAR
    2022 4.2 WAR, 4.1 oWAR, -0.9 dWAR
     
    #36 Marshall Bryant, Nov 15, 2022
    Last edited: Nov 15, 2022
    Houstunna, rockbox and everyday eddie like this.
  17. Marshall Bryant

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    I guess since Goldschmidt isn't available, I'll have to go with other. I'm leaning toward Youth at 1B until one shows potential to stick. I'd love to see Hensley taking most starts initially with Yuli teaching and backing him up as a mentor. When utility is needed, shift Hensley there and bring in Yuli at 1B. If that doesn't work, try Y Diaz or Matjevic. We could get lucky and see 2021 Yuli or discover this years Pena who is ready to become the next wave core group.

    Walker has been pushed and 2022 was crazily aberrant from previous years, both on offense and defense, but now I see why some want him so bad after looking at his Statcast OAA.

    I have ideas, but am actually glad I don't have to make those decisions. I'll just let someone else take the heat and then nitpick.
     
  18. Marshall Bryant

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    I prefer OBP

    .387 Altuve
    .289 Pena
    .406 Alvarez
    .366 Bregman
    .330 Tucker
    .378 Abreu
    .370 Brantley
    .278 Vasquez
    .332 McCormick
     
  19. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    Agree. Can't really go wrong with any of Rizzo, Abreu, Bell. I lean Rizzo personally.

    Let's see who wants to channel their inner Hector Neris and sign for a ring.
     
  20. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    Parkland shooting? Moon landing?

    I only have two words for that ...

    [​IMG]
     

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