Manchin saved our ass, can you imagine what would have happened if they passed that 1st big ass bill?
Absolutely. Unless DeSantis shifts dramatically back to the middle, who he really is when exposed through a national election will scare the bejesus out of those moderate voters who voted to wash away the crazies this cycle. I do think that DeSantis is much smarter and slicker than Trump though so as long as he locks himself up throughout the primary process, he has to be smart enough to pull a Romney pivot, and throw the Democrats off guard. Abbott (who i can't stand of course) is remarkably great at doing this here in Texas with his ad campaigns. His campaign, although its a lie, basically promotes him as an everday man who has many of the same policy principals as Democrats. The big wildcard, and the gift that could keep on giving to the Dems would be Trump if he's beat in the primary but still wields his base either as a third party candidate on the ballot or just on the trail threatening to have his base stay home in protest. That will force DeSantis to stay in the far right, and keep out Trumping Trump. The other issue DeSantis has is abortion. He's already painted into a far right corner there, and if the has to stay in the lane of needing to promise he'll sign a federal abortion ban, he's toast as a candidate. The entire election will be about that. So that's enough to say it's not an easy path to election for DeSantis, and I wouldn't be shocked if GOP pollsters reconvene in a couple weeks to say to their higher ups that Trump might be their unavoidable guy to get behind... again. The third party risk is too great. Which then the GOP higher ups try to go to Trump and work some sort of deal out (stand down in exchange for a pardon, etc.) which he probably won't take in good faith in any trustworthy way. I like Biden's chance at a re-election to say the least. If it's DeSantis though, probably a good time to let an up and comer run and focus on governing these last two years. There was so much important legislation past that I feel like pulling the White House into the 2024 election starting... like in a month is too much of a distraction away from highlighting the work they are actually going to be doing these last two years.
They love vets when they are in uniform and faceless and exist as a tangible manifestation of power and strength. Once those vets take off the uniforms and you have to see the dirty smelly poor people people underneath... Gross!, they want nothing to do with them. They love the uniforms, but not the people who wear them.
I disagree I think Biden's best chance is if DeSantis runs he has way to much Trump stink on him, and he has said far to much trying to own the libs, so if he tries to pivot he loses a lot of his base and if he tries to keep them he loses moderates. Also at the end of the day Biden is more likeable than DeSantis and I think most will vote for the stability.
Oh absolutely.... but that is before. Now I doubt they care since bets are already in. There's a ton of money to be made if the Dems win the House with them a +1000. However insiders often will catch wind of some new data and you'll see some late breaks if something has changed. I assume with election betting, it's similar to sports betting where you are paid out based on the spread at the time of your bet. So there's no real incentive for those betting the underdog (Dems/House) to have the odds shift here at the last moment assuming they've already made their bets which I'm sure they did weeks ago. If something changes in the data in the next few hours I think you'll see a jolt in Vegas to try and get a bet in before the odds start to change from +1000 to close to even in a matter of minutes. That's kind of what happened with Banchero.
It's an IQ+advertising issue with the SUPER RELIGIOUS demo. And an inherent fetish to be told what to do. Don't tell Alan Moore I posted this.
I didn't say he didn't have a good chance. It's just more of a pet peeve of mine that I feel like the White House has to focus way too early on the re-election, and just for the sake of Biden's legacy I like the idea of him really spending the last two years trying to cement that the way LBJ wanted to do with the Great Society. We've had such a negative experience with our presidents really going back to Nixon that it would just be refreshing to have one that can find a way to cement a widely popular stature in our history. I think he would leave the White House with a historically high approval rating knowing he's doing the job now with no incentive but just to do a good job on his way out.
I am excluding Texas and Fla, but I think if we get something like another power outage in a freeze things can change.
I can get behind that and If I had mt druthers he would be able to hand it off the a person capable of leading the next generation of Democrats. Wes Moore?
Wes is a superstar for sure but I think he needs to serve out his governorship and do a good job. While this is happening the dems need to make sure he gets national exposure… So for 2018, yeah, I’d be down.
