But in her case she didn't debate at all which is a strategy that only works if you're winning comfortably. If you're behind, this is a bad idea. If Herschel Walker had been comfortably up in the polls, he absolutely would have skipped his debates. But he was behind so he had to show up. Hobbs simply wasn't in a position to try this stunt. Also, one thing that's overlooked is the fact that Kari Lake was a news anchor in Phoenix. Voters were already very familiar with her before the election. Its not discussed very much but local news personalities actually tend to overperform the partisan lean of a given election with regularity. Next door in New Mexico, the same effect can be observed as the Republican nominee for governor was a pretty well known meteorologist but New Mexico's partisan lean was too strong to overcome.
In most cases a debate can't win an election but it can certainly hurt. The narrative that was formed around Hobbs was that she was afraid of Kari Lake and Hobbs own words said that. Running as a candidate afraid to be on even the same stage with your opponent isn't a good look. Biden knew going into the first debate with Trump would be a mess, and it was. If he hadn't done it though not just trump but most of media would've run with a narrative that Biden was so old and feeble that he couldn't handle being on stage with Trump. Just to note it's not just Rightleaning media and pundits criticizing Hobbs. Joe Scaraborough and others have criticized her for not debating Lake.
I warned about this earlier. WI is so gerrymandered that the Republicans have a super majority even though they lost statewide. They aren't the only state to do so.
If Biden doesn't run this is why I think Whitmer has a pretty good shot at it. She has done a pretty good job in that state.
Scarborough is right leaning, I know he has disavowed the party but everything he says about politics and policy is right leaning. I kind of agree with them but I don't think it made much of a difference and probably would have hurt more than anything with how polished lake is and also the fact lake is willing to lie a say anything. I understand because I don't like getting into a back and forth with people who will just say anything even when they know it to false.
One of the key differences between WI and MN. Even though they are demographically almost identical Democrats control all of the statewide offices and now the state Legislature. The MN Congressional delegation is evenly split between Republicans and Democrats at 4 each. The Twin Cities of Minneapolis make up a larger proportion of MN's population than the urban areas of Mliwaukee and Madison in WI. As such WI is just slightly more rural than MN. That slight difference was enough to be exploited by Republicans to control much of the levers of governance.
Things looking like Boebert might win reelection. She's only trailing by 64 votes and the even the NYT is putting it has Boebbert lean. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...ons/results-colorado-us-house-district-3.html
This isn't true. NY has always been gerrymandered. The problem was that NY legislature went too far trying to create an excessively absurd map and that got rejected. Then the result was the courts drew a map that was largely non-partisan. If NY legislature had just done normal levels of gerrymandering, they would have been fine, but they got greedy.
From the conservative WSJ, Trump Is the Republican Party’s Biggest Loser He has now flopped in 2018, 2020, 2021 and 2022. on election day,Tuesday 8 Nov 2022, Democrats succeeded again in making the former President a central campaign issue, and Mr. Trump helped them do it. Trumpy Republican candidates failed at the ballot box in states that were clearly winnable. This can’t be what Mr. Trump was envisioning ahead of his “very big announcement” next week. Yet maybe the defeats are what the party needs to hear before 2024. from another Murdock-owned news outlet
The part that isn't discussed is that Michigan passed a previous amendment that established a non-partisan redistricting commission which helped undo a lot of the inherent partisan Republican lean of the previous maps. But yes, we should all be celebrating the state legislature victories. The Michigan and Michigan sweeps and winning the state house in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire are huge victories. Alaska looks likely to form a bipartisan coalition government in both chambers for the first time as well (with the coalition consisting of mostly Democrats). Basically if things continue as is, Dems will more or less control both houses in Alaska.
I am going to start watching prices as a whole, I am thinking prices have been kept inflated for a reason and now people are going to go back to chasing market share.
She hasn't been ahead at any point in the past two days. I've been checking it every so often and the votes for both keep going up.
