Pretty sure Murkowski will win that race rather easily. She'll get basically all the 2nd place votes from the Dem. edit: Whatever McConnell spent in AK probably goes many magnitudes further in terms of impact in their media markets than that spending would in PA, GA, etc.
Texas Democrats really need a better strategy. Beto was a non starter from jump, anyone could have seen that. Not sure what the best strategy would be, but personally I think really prioritizing economic issues for young people and rural/ex-urban areas would be the way to go. The first to help increase voter turnout in the blue cities as much as possible, and the latter to help mitigate the huge Republican margins in rural/ex-urban areas. This whole shtick of moderation on economic issues and really pounding the liberal culture war issues is a dry well that they refuse to stop going back to over and over and over...and over again. It fails to address the economic concerns of young people and just plays into the culture war fear mongering of Republicans, so as a result it leaves their base less energized and energizes the base of their opponents.
Texas elections are always on midterm years. Building a campaign strategy around young people is probably not very sustainable because in a "good" year, they aren't going to turn out to vote. I do agree they need to get back some rural voters - that will not only help them in state races, but also in the Texas House and Senate where so many districts are out of reach.
the post-election spin has been interesting to follow. certainly republicans underperformed, but the party in power lost (likely) one branch of congress, and at best will end up tied in the other (status quo). moreover, the greatest threat to their hold on the presidency has been emboldened and empowered... Spoiler I speak not of Trump the soft bigotry of low expectations.
There is no spin. Here are the facts: Republicans were expecting a red wave due to inflation. It was more of a rain drop. Democrats were expecting to lose the house due to gerrymandering, and the loss was expected to be large. Losses have not been as catastrophic, even though Republicans are still expected to win the majority. Democrats expected to maybe lose the Senate or possibly keep it a tie (w/ deciding both to VP). Seems like this is going to happen. Republicans had huge expectations, and considering this is a damn midterm, the expectations were reasonable. So no, it's not spin, the Republicans are going to fall short bigly, and that's pretty damn embarrassing when the momentum was on their side since the beginning of the year.
It's not just the economy, stupid. Local election is back and candidate quality matters. Right to Abortion won 5/5 (including KY by 5 pts, MI by 14pts). It's MAGA, Abortion, Economy, Candidate qualities... Great news -> Open Primary and Rank Choice Voting is heading to NV (almost - leading in every single county with ~20% outstanding votes)
yes, 'tis damn embarrassing to only control one house of congress, be tied in the other, with an ascendant presidential challenger with a proven formula for success to run on.
My guess, and it is just a guess. The white vote won't show up as much. One reason I believe that is because Walker did much worse than Kemp. Kemp got 200,000 more votes than Walker. I think Abrams will rally the black vote just like she did last time for Warnock. Herschel might get confused about a "run-off" though. "That's what I do to my kids, right? Or is this like a 40 yard dash?"
