Yea, no, it was never disproven, but that's not how it works. You have to prove it, not someone needs to disprove it. The same goes for natural origin. As for the statement, "more likely than not", that was designed to be picked up. In other words, politics. I saw nothing in the short interim report that is new (it's the same old stuff we already know) to change the current likely theory - it's a natural spillover.
Why would you say the current theory is "likely". And how do you think you "prove it" when China has done everything in its power to conceal evidence and prevent the truth from coming out. Come on.
That's the theory most accepted by the scientific community that works on viruses, but it's not proven and may never be proven. China is a hindrance, but that doesn't mean it will not be proven one day. It may never be but come close enough to be just accepted. It took 14 years to find the bat population most likely responsible for the SARS1 pandemic and is now accepted as the origin although not 100% proven. Occam's Razor.
@AroundTheWorld @Sweet Lou 4 2 Wow they wouldn’t let people leave Like the park was blocked by she hulk
The famous Jon Stewart has a segment on inflation with a global health expert ... his name sounded familiar
Didn't want to start a new thread and it is related to covid and controversial topics. Why are we seeing an uptick in severe cases (especially for kids) of these viruses? A theory is covid weakens immunity for months (a very large % of kids have been infected this year). We know that viruses can do this and there is some data to back this up specifically related to covid. The other "social media" theory is "immune deficit" (not being exposed to these common viruses weakens the immune response) - there is no data to back this up. ps. Other than getting the flu vaccine, I'm considering telling my kids to masks in school (not against covid but against flu and other viruses that are circulating now). Not sure if it's going to help but it's just masking. These viruses did simply "disappear" even with simple non-n95 masking (even after in-person school when masking was generally still common). And the usual for the flu - wash your hand and try to avoid touching your nose/eye/mouth. The U.S. is officially in a flu epidemic: CDC | Fortune The U.S. has “crossed the epidemic threshold” when it comes to flu, federal health officials said Friday, as they outlined plans to deploy troops and FEMA personnel, and supplies like ventilators, if needed, in response to a nationwide surge of respiratory illnesses that also includes RSV and COVID. U.S. flu hospitalizations are higher now than they’ve been at this point in every other flu season since 2010-2011, officials with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on a press call. The country is seeing a resurgence of non-COVID respiratory illnesses like flu, RSV, rhinovirus, and enterovirus, with background levels of COVID, according to Dr. José Romero, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. Federal officials are monitoring hospital capacity throughout the U.S. and are “standing by to deploy additional personnel and supplies as needed,” Dawn O’Connell, assistant secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services’ Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response, said on the call. If a state or jurisdiction exceeds its ability to care for patients, a team from the National Disaster Medical System may be deployed, she said, adding that response might also include personnel from the Department of Defense and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA. If extra supplies like ventilators or personal protective equipment are needed, they’re available upon request from the Strategic National Stockpile, she added. No states had requested this level of support as of Friday. ... Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report | CDC
This has been my concern on/off is that the immune system development is important for kids: "Many people have heard of the “hygiene hypothesis” — the idea that individuals who are exposed to a variety of microbes (i.e., germs) in childhood build better immunity. In fact, there is evidence that young children who have early exposure to different types of germs are less likely to develop allergies and autoimmune disorders such as hay fever, asthma, or inflammatory bowel disease. " from MIT/other sources. Obviously depending who you talk to this will go back/forth and some will misinterpret it for not washing hands or something silly like forcing someone to get exposed to a virus. What I am talking about is training the immune system to not overreact to other allergens/germs in their normal environment that then causes a virus to become easier to transmit because the immune system is already overreacting to something not actually serious. Anyway, I don't have a good answer, but I think if you're in an area with a low virus count/low risk/no existing health issues, it's probably beneficial for kids to be exposed to their environment. Do I recommend someone trying to get covid/rsv/flu or something insane, absolutely not, but I do think kids not having an immune system trained will be a greater impact later in life for them- again think worse allergies/odd immune response that then leads to easier viral infection from a real threat. Am I saying rsv/flu = covid, no - but I am concerned that our medical system will continue to be strained. On a side note, flu vaccine/other vaccines are a way to hopefully get an immune response, I just think there's going to be a tipping point - that future generations might have weaker immune systems due to this- again these are just my thoughts, I have a heavy science background so I know the science/my thoughts will probably change, but this is where I'm currently at. Also, definitely not trying to tell you/others what to do because this will probably all change and I'm not your Dr etc..
The hygiene hypothesis ("early exposure to a diverse range of "friendly" microbes - not infectious pathogens" is necessary to train the human immune system to react appropriately to stimuli") has some data backing it up, including the Johns Hopkins study you reference. The current version of that hypothesis doesn't apply to infectious pathogens such as viruses. Current data doesn't say early exposure to viruses (or repeated) is helpful and warned against that as a strategy due to the harm viruses can cause. Are the "mass avoidance" of the flu and other viruses the reason for the severe season? No data saying that's the case at this time other than potentially there is more RSV cases because most kids that should have it by now avoided it for ~2 years. Is mass covid infection causing this? Some data suggest it might be a contributing factor. Impacts of COVID on the immune system (medicalxpress.com) An Australian study has found SARS-CoV-2 alters the balance of immune cells up to 24 weeks after clearing the infection. There were changes to the relative numbers and types of immune cells between people who had recovered from COVID compared with healthy people who had not been infected. This included changes to cells of the innate immune system (which provides a non-specific immune response) and the adaptive immune system (a specific immune response, targeting a recognised foreign invader). Another study focused specifically on dendritic cells—the immune cells that are often considered the body's "first line of defence." Researchers found fewer of these cells circulating after people recovered from COVID. The ones that remained were less able to activate white blood cells known as T-cells, a critical step in activating anti-viral immunity. Other studies have found different impacts on T-cells, and other types of white blood cells known as B-cells (cells involved in producing antibodies). After SARS-CoV-2 infection, one study found evidence many of these cells had been activated and "exhausted." This suggests the cells are dysfunctional, and might not be able to adequately fight a subsequent infection. In other words, sustained activation of these immune cells after a SARS-CoV-2 infection may have an impact on other inflammatory diseases. One study found people who had recovered from COVID have changes in different types of B-cells. This included changes in the cells' metabolism, which may impact how these cells function. Given B-cells are critical for producing antibodies, we're not quite sure of the precise implications. Could this influence how our bodies produce antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 should we encounter it again? Or could this impact our ability to produce antibodies against pathogens more broadly—against other viruses, bacteria or fungi? The study did not say. What impact will these changes have? One of the main concerns is whether such changes may impact how the immune system responds to other infections, or whether these changes might worsen or cause other chronic conditions. So more work needs to be done to understand the long-term impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection on a person's immune system. For instance, we still don't know how long these changes to the immune system last, and if the immune system recovers. We also don't know if SARS-CoV-2 triggers other chronic illnesses, such as chronic fatigue syndrome (myalgic encephalomyelitis). Research into this is ongoing. What we do know is that having a healthy immune system and being vaccinated (when a vaccine has been developed) is critically important to have the best chance of fighting any infection.
That's interesting on the Australian study, I hadn't seen that one yet! Also, I definitely agree with you on hypothesis hygiene like it doesn't explain the surge in rsv/flu, I was more thinking further down the road seeing more implications for not being exposed to regular environment for future generation of adults and potentially seeing more people with worse allergies leading to an immune reaction that could make them more susceptible to actual infections. Anyway, definitely agree with you on not having kids/people/anyone go and get flu/rsv/covid on purpose etc. (I hope we made that clear) Or when people get confused and think handwashing = bad or something. Please everyone, keep washing your hands!
One takeaway from last night was while governors who didnt put in many COVID restrictions won like DeSantis, Abbot, and Noem governors who did also won. Walz, Whitmer, Newsom, DeWine, etc.. were all heavily criticized for their actions regarding COVID and I know that in both Walz, Evers and Whitmer's case their opponents tried to make an issue out of COVID restrictions.
~40,000 Georgians died of Covid, and given that those will skew mostly older and unvaccinated, we can probably guess they skew heavily Republican. Warnock is ahead by 17000 votes right now.
