We haven't been in a pandemic for well over a year now and prices continue to go up. There are serious structural global issues that go beyond a coin toss. Record low unemployment is subjective. White collared jobs are going to take a beating while blue collared jobs will still be in high demand. Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates which impacts and that have clearly stated they are trying to force the economy into a recession.
He didn't shoot himself. He did the hard work that someone has to do to build the party. You can't win until you try (even when the odds go against you). Republicans tried and failed for decades before John Tower finally won a senate seat in 1961 and then it was close to 40 years before Republicans finally ran the table and wiped out all statewide Dems. During that time, Republicans kept trying and failing but the point was that they tried over and over (with good candidates). Texas won't be handed to the Dems. They have to do work to win it. If people only ran when the odds were good, then Democrats will never ever win in Texas.
I am not sure what to make over Arizona's race for Governor. Lake is behind the late counts have tended to skew very heavily in her and Republican's favor. Yet, she's already squawking about the election not being secure. Maybe she's just covering her bases. Or maybe she knows something about her likelihood of winning. Speaking of losing. Props to Ryan in Ohio. Tim Ryan is a role model for how candidates should carry themselves. He shows that he cares about issues, and country over party.
Being hard anti-gun is not the way to go in Texas. You can't just throw **** at the wall and hope it sticks. There is data there and you can be smart about it and pick the right candidates.
I really dislike MAGA but I am not happy with democrats either. I hope Bidden does not run again, he is too old and I don't think he have the mind to handle what is needed in next four years. We need someone like a young Bill Clinton, not sure if Newsom can be that person, I don't see too many other options.
I don't think this was the case for Beto, but sometimes Democrats in Texas have a tough time. The national party won't give money unless they champion the issues they want to spread nationally which might well be gun control. So the Texas candidates either have to forego campaign money or they have to campaign and trumpet issues that will sink them in the race.
I'd prefer Gretchen Whitmer. She's been reelected in a swing state and can win a part of the country needed to win the electoral college.
Arizona strikes me as one of those states that's hard to get a good read on. Lake is a ****ing blowhard Trumper and as we're seeing, that's not what the majority wants. Tim Ryan should have had his wife and daughter front and central in his advertising.
Eh, I think there's an angle for gun control in Texas but definitely not the tack that Beto took. And it's politics, it's all about interpersonal sales. You get the right person in front of the money people and you can sell your angle that isn't 'no guns!'. It's an uphill battle in Texas for Ds as you noted. No need to put more boulders in your way when you're slogging up that mountain.
Sounds like you're talking about pundits, not polls. The results last night were surprising, but not earth shattering. Qualitative analysis favored the Republicans significantly. Historical trends were in their favor. Quantitatively, however, things were pretty tight. Granted Dems had more at stake, but winning 6 or 7 out of 10 coinflips isn't some gigantic anomaly. Look at the results vs. the RCP average in the tightest, hardest to predict Senate races: GA RCP Avg: +1.4 Walker Result: +.5 Warnock Delta: 1.9 NV RCP Avg: +3.4 Laxalt Result: +2.5 Laxalt (so far) Delta: .9 WI RCP Avg: +3.6 Johnson Result: +1.2 Johnson Delta: 2.4 PA RCP Avg: +.4 Oz Result: +2.3 Fetterman Delta: 2.7 OH RCP Avg: +8 Vance Result: +6.5 Vance Delta: 1.5 NC RCP Avg: +6.2 Budd Result: +3.6 Budd Delta: 2.6 The biggest miss was New Hampshire with Hassan v Bolduc but I think the trend we're seeing here is that all the races where a candidate narrowed a gap late are the ones where they reliably lost (PA, GA, NH, and even MI w/ Whitmer).
I will admit and back track on my original comment but I do still include it in my probability tree. I don't follow politics closely. It does seem like Trump is losing his staying power. DeSantis and Florida are getting much of the positive attention at this point. Perhaps DeSantis will be able to take on Trump. I feel like DeSantis uses many of Trumps tactics but in a much more intelligent way. DeSantis could become the Republican that starts to pull Hispanics into the fold across the country.
I'm glad it's happening but watch as millions of Trump fans disappear "I always thought he was a piece of ****" If happened to Bush Jr, it will happen to Trump and probably even harder
I can tell you from talking to local Hispanic (Mexican descent) friends that they see FL Hispanics (islanders- Cuban and PR) in a different light- like they're stuck up and think they're 'white'. If DeSantis carries that stigma of having their support it could backfire among Hispanic voters nationwide. Just what I've gathered talking to people. I could be totally wrong on my sample opinions. No offense meant to anyone.
Don't know if it's possible, but a Whitmer Newsom ticket could energize some otherwise dormant folks. Have no idea if the DEM establishment could kick both Biden and Harris to the curb simultaneously, but I'm keeping hope alive, barely.
Dems need 2 out of these 3. Unfortunately, NV looking 50/50. This may very well come down to an ugly, ugly GA runoff.
Even in ancient Rome they knew the masses were fickle, but it seems like every election cycle it's a shock when a certain paradigm falls out of favor.