Oz not hitting Trump's numbers in PA and Fetterman is exceeding Biden's numbers so far. Biden won PA. But it isn't decided or guaranteed.
Arizona going solidly Dem so far. 40% in and none of the races are particularly close. Very early but Kelly and Hobbs well out pacing the benchmarks.
If the Rs hold on in the house, they're going to enter with an ungovernable caucus. This is the nightmare scenario where McCarthy can't do anything without the MTG caucus. Seriously, this is a catastrophe for Republicans right now. And Ds are somehow flipping a few seats along the way so they have a non-trivial chance now at holding the house.
New Mexico will maintain a Democrat governor. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...ons/results-virginia-us-house-district-7.html
This is over. Every new vote dump has Oz underperforming Trump. Fetterman is going to overperform Biden by a healthy amount.
This is a really good question. Trump is SOUNDLY unpopular (moreso than Biden) and if the GOP is smart they figure out some way to get rid of him, he only has a chance to win against Biden and that (I believe) would be an edge to Biden. Desantis won a state and did so convincingly, in any normal political party, he's your 2024 candidate, but the Trump base is fiercely loyal. The big question is if Desantis can beat Trump in a primary by forcing enough of Trump's base to pick him over Trump. I don't know. I do think Desantis has a strong case to make to the party that he's their guy but a lot of the party still worships Trump.
They are rivals, not partners. The way I see it, Trump is only in it for himself, and a bad person. DeSantis is a principled conservative. Okay, a bit angry sometimes. But not a malignant narcissist like Trump.
I don't think Biden will run again. He just doesn't seem healthy or even all there anymore, tbh. He's just too old and frail. Trump is a bad person, but he seems more energetic than Biden still, for sure.
Yeah, as of right now its a huge wildcard who will be the Democratic nominee in 2024, I don't think Biden will be, he's going to say so until its time for him to step down because he doesn't want to lame duck himself, but if Desantis is the candidate I don't feel confident that Biden could beat him. Hopefully 2024 will not be Biden v Trump again though either way.
The five seats that were redrawn in favor of GOP will be won by the GOP but Democrats have already flipped one seat to their favor in Ohio. Possible to flip Boebert out in CO, and more still to come. We don't know, yet.
Tim Ryan is going to lose but the Dems are on the verge of going from 12-4 to 10-5 in the House Delegation. They're about to make a small crack in the gerrymander there and somehow hold a larger share of the delegation. Similarly, in Colorado, Dems might go from 4-3 to 6-2 at this rate. In short, its no sure thing that the Rs are taking the House. Dems can still run the table on the OC seats in California along with holding the Nevada seats.
I hope he does not. Overall for me personally ( i know that means nothing ) I despise Trump. I would take DeSantis, Hilary Clinton, Al Gore, Jeb Bush, Obama, Pence name a person. I would probably take them over Trump policy be damned. Trump personifies almost all of the worst traits a human can have. Besides humor I can barely come up with a positive trait. So that is where I stand on Trump v DeSantis etc. I said it 2 years ago Trump or Biden being elected in 2024 which would be a term that ends 6 years from now could be the worst thing for this country since the Civil War. A shadow or ghost in the whitehouse barely coherent. I promise you Trump will be really bad by that point as well.
