Oh it's definitely still doomed lol. No I do like the Dems chances tonight better than most, but I do think that if the GOP holds the House, if Biden wins again in 2024, you know Kevin McCarthy will hold a vote in the House to try to invoke the 12th amendment to make the states vote for the presidency. There's just no way the crazies in the GOP House will be reasonable enough to allow for a smooth Jan 6 certification if Trump loses in 24. Not saying they'll be successful ultimately because I do think the Supreme Court can step in and rule on the constitutionality of the House vote, but the fact is Kevin McCarthy will control that vote if they want to take it. You do know that at least is coming if they win the House right? Again, not saying they would be successful, but them winning the House at the very least is problematic for the perception globally that we have a stable Democracy. Then there's the issue of MAGA secretary's of state which will try all kinds of funny business. Anyway.... enough doom and gloom for now. The Rockets had a great win last night, the Stros are champs, and tonight might not be the end of Democracy.
I am really thinking there will be a bit of a blue wave, I just don't see republicans as having the same enthusiasm with Trump off the ballot and Democrats have a lot of enthusiasm.
Do you know any one person who voted for Biden who you can think of is like... actually... this time I'm voting for MAGA now?? I can't think of one... but I do know at least one white dude MAGA friend of mine who voted for Trump but is saying he's voting Beto (who he hates) because his wife has had issues with pregnancies in the past (like... well... probably the majority of women who have given birth) and is voting Beto basically out of respect for her, and knowing that they could need those rights in the future. I do think the far right Christian evangelicals are juiced up because of the volume of content the past year or so being pumped into their social media feeds, but I honestly don't know where that base gets growth from. In the end, if the 18, and 20 coalition are showing up in the same volume as the past two election cycles, it'll be tough for the GOP to beat them. The abortion issue (as I alluded to in my example) is the big question mark. I told myself months ago though that the polling.... yeah.... just kind of ignore it. Usually it massively undercounts GOP support, but there's no reason why if they have been so wrong in the past with GOP support that they can't be wrong on the other hand in another cycle.
Just went to my local precinct in Montgomery County. No line at all. In and out in 5 minutes. Would've thought that at lunch time, there would be more activity. Wonder if there's an overconfidence problem from the right since it's typically Dems that vote early. Granted I'm in Montgomery County and it still means almost nothing.
I think Polls have started looking for headlines with their numbers, and news sources are happy to play along. I watch Morning Joe before I go to work and for the last 2 weeks they have been railing on Democrats about their messaging and then this morning it was all about how Democrats should be ecstatic that the numbers have been so close during a midterm election. That should have been the leading story all day every day, but anything negative about Democrats got the headlines even on what is considered liberal media. News media sucks, it's all about the negative.
Probably a lull due to people being at work - I'd expect it to pick up around 3-4pm. I voted at the 11th hour on last day of early voting (so last Friday) and the line at the hotel near 290 and 610 was snaking around the hallway and doubling back. Fortunately, they had plenty of voting machines and the election workers kept everything moving so I was only there an hour. At this point, no idea what to expect - between the GOP-friendly polls that TTD is sharing here and the Dem-friendly polls I'm seeing on Twitter, I don't have any sense of what people actually feel. The closest thing we have to real data is how people have voted in this year's special elections (which went quite well for the Democrats), but I don't know if special elections have historically correlated in any way to general elections.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...results&context=election_recirc®ion=NavBar The Needle: Senate and House Forecast
Election night coverage is always something interesting to watch at least… interactive maps.. real time analysis… etc etc… I enjoy the spectacle.
For the Dems.... if the youth turnout out is less than expected then they'll lose Congress. GOP should be running away with it considering the environment.
