The incredible transformation of Justin Brooks Verlander

I think Crane has a unique affection for Verlander and is willing to override his front office’s recommendations/wishes to sign him. I’d say there is probably a 40% chance that Verlander resigns with Houston.

 

I’d say there’s a 90% chance. I also doubt anyone in the front office is saying “let JV walk”

MMP sells out every time JV is pitching, he pays for himself 20x over. Loves the city, has the best chance too win even when he’s off mechanically.

His value in what he can pass on too younger pitchers is probably even greater than what he does on the mound, which is winning the CY this season.

 

It would surprise me if no one in the Astros front office was hesitant to commit $140M+ to a 40 year old pitcher 2 years removed from a Tommy John surgery.

 

Who’s saying $140 mil? I bet he gets 2yrs 70-75 mil. Big market teams are gonna break the bank on Judge, Turner, DeGrom, Rodon, Correa, Bogaerts & Swanson.

 

If Verlanders asking price is $70M/2yrs he will be signed by Crane in the next 5 days (and I will be shocked).

 

Unless someone gives him a max scherzer size contract, I think he will resign. He knows how good he has it here with the guys in the locker room. 2 years of guaranteed contention is nothing to sneeze at when you are winding down your career and have more money than you can spend.

 

35 mil a year for a 40 year old is still a top 10 annual deal. I don’t think that is at all far fetched.

 

I think with Christ on our side, it's 100%.

 

He just won the cy young. Of course someone is going to give him a Max Scherzer type offer.

 

I think Crane will give him an offer immediately before even deciding on the GM.

It would not surprise me if Crane offered him 3 yrs $120M today.

 

Verlander is in an ideal place, he can sign a multi year deal and guarantee himself a lot of money elsewhere. Crane will not be unreasonable, and if Verlander is open to staying in Houston, those two will get it done. But Verlander strikes me as a guy who wants to earn his money, and not just get paid for the sake of getting paid. He hates sitting out and collecting money because of his legacy. You could see the frustration about not getting to play for Houston last year while getting paid a lot of money. I think he gave Houston a goodwill deal, because the Astros stood solid by him even when he was injured for the better part of two years,

Verlander at his age has pitched the best baseball of his MLB career with Houston. It would be an awesome thing to see him keep it going here, and perhaps, just perhaps maybe go into the Hall of Fame with the Astros cap! I mean as of now 2 Cy Young awards and he pitching in 3 WS and winning 2 World Series titles.

 

$100M/3yrs might get it, especially if there’s incentives to bring it higher.

But there’s very little precedent for a 40 year old pitching as well as Verlander is. At some point the sample size becomes small enough to not be able to have a lot of confidence in estimating the aging curve. In this case I’m not sure there really is a lot of difference between 42 and 39. Anecdotally I know I aged a lot more between 35 and 39 than I did 39 and 42. Of course there is some added risk for the higher age, but how much I don’t know. And aside from that the market is different. For now I think JV will sign for something around $130M/3yrs, and I don’t really think that would be a very good deal for Houston, although I wouldn’t necessarily hate it. But really any 2 year deal is hard to see going too badly. And anything under $100M for a 3 year deal seems pretty palatable.

 

He's the best pitcher in baseball...RIGHT NOW. Give him what he wants. You pay for what he is. Not for something nobody can predict.

 

Not only is age related loss of athletic prowess predictable, it is inevitable. To ignore that inevitability is foolish and the repercussions are obvious.

 

Tell that to Verlander, Nolan, and Brady. Fall off due to age is not predictable. It's like saying we are all gonna die. Yes. But nobody knows when. They just don't.

 

2 years, $80M, with a $20M player option for year 3.
Honestly, feels like too much. But WS-flush Crane and co. can afford to go over luxury tax for a year or two.
Let's make it happen.