It's certainly harder to poll those groups, but polling outfits account for this and adjust. The error in polls comes from the fact that they have to guess at what the electorate looks like. For example, if they get less response for a certain group, they adjust the weighting to reflect the amount of actual voters they expect. So the error doesn't come from oversampling landlines or undersampling millenials. It comes from: 1. Having to guess at what turnout is going to look like amongst different groups. 2. Missing if there's a shift within an unpolled group. For example, the problem may not be "can't reach millenials" but "unreachable millenials are more likely to vote for Trump than reachable millenials". Elections and demographics and turnout used to be fairly predictable, so it wasn't a big deal. But since Trump, electorates have changed dramatically, turnout is different, etc. So every year, polling will have an error. They attempt to adjust for previous errors but no one knows what the error will be the next time around until after the fact. There are so many close races that, even within the regular polling margin of error, you could have anything from 54 GOP Senate seats to 53 or so Dem seats. Then once you account for systematic error, you could go a bit farther either way. Same in all the other races. In the Senate, I agree with McConnell that candidate quality matters, and Dems are likely to barely hold on in a lot of these races. In the House, I suspect the GOP does really well. Gubernatorial races tend to be less nationalized, so you could have all sorts of crazy results with GOP winning in Oregon and Dems winning in places like Kansas and Oklahoma. Election day will be pretty fascinating this year.
Yep. Blame the GOP for pulling this ****. They made it to where early votes and mail in votes can't be counted until in person election day votes are counted. All to incite outrage. "Wait our candidate was winning. Then all of a sudden, overnight, they started losing!" Yeah dumbass because that is how YOUR GOP state representatives wanted to count the vote.
And what about the X-Factors... Independents and Conservatives that are staying wayyy under the radar of who they are choosing.... T_Man
Also Kari Lake who has said that results that aren't delivered on Election night is suspect didn't win her own primary after days. I've yet to hear her claim her victory is suspect.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/white-...-backing-republicans-for-congress-11667381402 These are the people that the Democrats were targeting with their pro-choice ads. Turns out, what these people care most about is the economy. They all care about integrity of democracy and abortion rights, but their priority is being able to pay their bills (like everyone else). For reference, per NYT, Dems have spent $320 million on ads focused on abortion, and only $31 million on ads focused on the economy. And they're doing this at a time when the economy is far and away the #1 issue. Doesn't seem like the best strategy to me.
The funny thing about that is that in 2020, Biden got out to a big lead in Arizona on election night and the lead narrowed over time. Arizona law allows for mail votes to be processed before election day. Its only in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin where you get slow counting of mail votes (because they can't be processed until after the polls close).
I hope the kids have enough money to pay for their parents retirement, because we know damn well the GOP has no plan for what comes next after getting rid of these things this must be that new form of trickle down
Somehow these Republican politicians have won over a lot of old people and I just don’t get it. The Democrats fight hard for benefits for the elderly but they just get the cold shoulder. These Republicans are just con artists.
As long as those Republican politicians tell those old people that all these problems exist because society has fallen from God and that we don't value tradional values anymore, they are good and will still win elections with old people voting for them.
#1. They don't believe the rhetoric about Republicans and Social Security. #2. The Dems doesn't listen to what's pissing voters off about their OWN party.
Nah. Democrats don't usually fault the downward spiral in wealth inequality and the hollowing out of middle America to turning away from God and tradional values. You won't get the support of many white elderly folks in America if you don't use that as a central premise behind all your policies.
Trump going full blown Q before midterms, spreading conspiracy theories full force. This is the GOP's great white cuckoo bird favorite for 2024.
As fox is less dependent on trump he is going farther and farther to the fringe, he has to feel the love of his people......no matter where that leads him, he knows his base will NEVER turn their back on him. I really do hope he runs, by then he will be so far down the rabbit hole that it wont matter. Better yet, the Ga case or the DOJ case end up with him being convicted
Haha thankfully dude isn't around anymore and only hear about him once in a while like some old friend you purposely lost touch with
