I have said this before. There are a lot of undecided voters who are making this mistake of voting Republican. Life under Biden hasn't been that much better than life under Trump.
Right, because Republicans keep voting against things that actually help the American people. This isn't Rocket science.
I wouldn't put money on it but Ryan is in very good position to pull an upset. His campaign has been underfunded when compared to some of the other big races but he has shown to be an effective campaigner. Given where OH is ideologically this race looks closer than it should be.
THere's been a lot of predictions that young voters will turn out so this is an interesting piece of news but not convinced by it. In the related video the pollster says that Gen Z has not been accurately captured before by other polls. https://www.boston.com/news/politic...dicts-gen-z-voting-wave-in-midterm-elections/ Harvard survey predicts Gen Z voting wave in midterm elections "Our new poll shows that those historic midterm numbers were not a fluke: Gen Z is a formidable voting bloc that demands to be heard." Forty percent of 18-to-29-year-olds said that they will “definitely” vote in the midterm elections, according to a national poll released by the Institute of Politics (IOP) at Harvard Kennedy School Thursday, suggesting the record-breaking youth turnout in the 2018 midterms will be matched or potentially exceeded. “In 2018, America’s youngest voters ran to the polls in record-breaking numbers to confront the challenges facing our democracy. Our new poll shows that those historic midterm numbers were not a fluke: Gen Z is a formidable voting bloc that demands to be heard,” said IOP Interim Director Setti Warren. The poll, which included 2,123 participants, found that young voters prefer continued Democratic control of Congress 57% to 31% (with 12% undecided), but only 39% approve the job President Biden’s been doing. This presidential approval rating is down from 41% in an IOP poll in spring 2022 and 59% in an IOP poll in spring 2021. Thirty-one percent approve of his handling of the economy and 25% approve of his handling of inflation. Job approval rates for Biden are correlated with how closely participants follow national politics — among those who follow the news very closely, he gets 48% approval, but among those who do not follow the news, he gets 28% approval. A majority of young Americans, though, are happy with the recent accomplishments of Biden and Congress: 54% said the cancellation of $10,000 of student debt will make America better; 64% said the bipartisan gun law will make America better, and 65% said the Inflation Reduction Act will make America better. Fifty-nine percent of participants believe their rights are under attack, and 72% of participants believe the rights of others are under attack. LGBTQ+ are most worried, with 72% reporting anxiety about their own individual rights. Sixty-three percent of women and 55% of men think their rights are under attack. Among likely voters, the top issues drawing them to the polls are inflation, abortion, protecting democracy, climate change, gun control, immigration, crime, and student loan debt. Priorities differed by gender as well. Among men’s top issues, 34% said inflation, 22% said protecting democracy, and 10% said abortion. Among women’s top issues, the order was flipped: abortion took the top spot with 24%, then inflation at 21%, and then protecting democracy at 13%. “For many young Americans, abortion rights, the future of our planet, and our democracy itself are all on the line this November – and they are acting accordingly,” said Alan Zhang, a junior at Harvard and student chair of the Harvard Public Opinion Project.
So, in reading through the literature provided by the League of Women Voters and the Tampa Bay Times, there are no responses from the main Republicans to their questions. None of the questions are "gotchas" (e.g. was the election stolen). Examples are ACA, gun reform, climate change, legislative priorities, education, housing. DeSantis, Rubio and my district's representative (Luna). Didn't respond. Neither AG candidate responded
CNN Poll: Republicans, backed by enthusiasm and economic concerns, hold a narrow edge ahead of next week’s congressional election https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/02/politics/cnn-poll-gop-congressional-election/index.html excerpt: The new survey out Wednesday shows that Democratic enthusiasm about voting is significantly lower than it was in 2018, when the Democratic Party took control of the House. Republican voters in the new poll express greater engagement with this year’s midterm election than Democrats across multiple questions gauging likelihood of vote. Overall, 27% of registered voters say they are extremely enthusiastic about voting this year, down from 37% just ahead of the 2018 midterm elections, and the decline in enthusiasm comes almost entirely among Democrats. Four years ago, 44% of Democratic registered voters said they were extremely enthusiastic about voting; now, just 24% say the same. Among Republicans, the number has dipped only narrowly, from 43% to 38%. more at the link
Nevada should lean Republican, and most polls have Laxalt ahead by 2-3%, so this poll is in that general area. Trafalgar has turned their reputation around as a polling firm. They were ripped 5-10 years ago for being inaccurate, but they changed some of their polling variables and are one of the more accurate polling firms now. With an incumbent President, inflation, etc..... those numbers are about right for a race in that type of scenario. It probably goes red unless the Democrats really have a good week leading into the election.
The most recent data we have about polling suggests that the bias is actually against conservatives, because they're less likely to answer a call from a pollster, let alone tell that pollster who they're voting for. Maybe it's some combination of MAGA shame or distrust of authority. Feels like lately you can reliably add 2-4 points to the R on any poll.
